CAREER: Understanding the Local and Remote Drivers of Regional Climate Change

职业：了解区域气候变化的本地和远程驱动因素

• 批准号: 2141728
• 负责人: Malte Stuecker
• 金额: $ 71.85万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-01 至 2027-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2141728&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Understanding; Local; Remote; Drivers

The warming effect of greenhouse gases is global but not uniform over the globe, and regional differences in the warming have important consequences for climate change impacts. El Nino events provide a useful point of reference for the importance of differential warming over tropical oceans, as the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the western Pacific causes disruptions in weather and climate worldwide. An assessment of future climate impacts over, say, the Southwest US, would have to take into account not only the magnitude of the warming of the tropical oceans but the pattern of the sea surface temperature (SST) increase. But despite considerable research a clear understanding of what the warming pattern should be and what factors determine it has not yet emerged. In particular, it is not clear how much the SST difference between the tropics and subtropics will change and wether the warming pattern in the Pacific will look more like El Nino or La Nina (with greater warming in the western Pacific).Research conducted under this award addresses the warming pattern using a suite of climate model experiments to identify the physical mechanisms that influence the SST warming pattern and its possible evolution over time. Further work considers the implications of the warming pattern for precipitation changes around the world. The model simulations are performed through a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) organized by the Principal Investigator (PI) and involving collaborators at the University of Tokyo, the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, National Taiwan University, and the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea. The simulations use a hierarchy of model configurations and specialized techniques to isolate mechanisms of interest. The work is based on an earlier study by the PI and others in which radiative heating by greenhouse gases was applied only in specific latitude bands, with the somewhat unexpected result that off-equatorial heating made a greater contribution to equatorial SST increase than local heating over the equator. Additional experiments use the "flux correction" technique to examine the effect of mean state bias in determining the warming pattern, motivated by concerns that the commonly occurring cold bias in equatorial Pacific SSTs could cause climate models to produce an incorrect warming pattern.The educational component of this CAREER proposal focuses on the use of graphic art as a tool for climate science communication. The project convenes a series of workshops for students in local media and graphic arts programs to develop scientific visualizations to explain climate change impacts relevant to Hawai'i. The visualizations, also known as infographics, are developed in partnership with local K-12 schools to reflect community concerns regarding climate change. The resulting infographics are distributed throughout schools across the state to help increase science literacy. Graphic design concepts are also introduced to graduate students in a new climate dynamics class, with the goal of creating publication-quality scientific illustrations. The infographics workshops serve to introduce climate science concepts to students outside STEM disciplines, many of whom are Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

温室气体的变暖效应是全球性的，但全球范围内的变暖效应并不均匀，变暖的区域差异对气候变化的影响具有重要影响。厄尔尼诺事件为热带海洋差异变暖的重要性提供了有用的参考点，因为东赤道太平洋相对于西太平洋的变暖导致了全球天气和气候的破坏。 对美国西南部等地区未来气候影响的评估不仅要考虑热带海洋变暖的程度，还要考虑海面温度（SST）上升的模式。 但是，尽管进行了大量研究，但对于变暖模式应该是什么以及什么因素决定它还没有形成清晰的认识。 特别是，目前还不清楚热带和亚热带之间的海温差异会发生多大变化，以及太平洋的变暖模式是否会更像厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜（西太平洋变暖幅度更大）。该奖项使用一套气候模型实验来解决变暖模式，以确定影响海表温度变暖模式及其随时间可能演变的物理机制。 进一步的工作考虑变暖模式对世界各地降水变化的影响。 模型模拟是通过首席研究员 (PI) 组织的模型比对项目 (MIP) 进行的，该项目涉及东京大学、德国阿尔弗雷德韦格纳研究所、国立台湾大学和蔚山国立科学技术研究所的合作者在韩国。 模拟使用模型配置的层次结构和专门技术来隔离感兴趣的机制。 这项工作基于 PI 和其他人的早期研究，其中温室气体辐射加热仅应用于特定纬度带，结果有些出乎意料，非赤道加热对赤道海温增加的贡献大于局部加热。赤道。 其他实验使用“通量校正”技术来检查平均状态偏差在确定变暖模式中的影响，其动机是担心赤道太平洋海温中常见的冷偏差可能导致气候模型产生不正确的变暖模式。该职业提案的重点是使用图形艺术作为气候科学传播的工具。 该项目为当地媒体和图形艺术项目的学生举办了一系列研讨会，以开发科学可视化来解释与夏威夷相关的气候变化影响。 这些可视化也称为信息图表，是与当地 K-12 学校合作开发的，以反映社区对气候变化的担忧。 由此产生的信息图表将分发到全州的学校，以帮助提高科学素养。 在新的气候动力学课程中，还向研究生介绍了平面设计概念，目的是创作出版质量的科学插图。 信息图表研讨会旨在向 STEM 学科以外的学生介绍气候科学概念，其中许多是夏威夷原住民和太平洋岛民。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

气候变暖时，中太平洋厄尔尼诺现象更加频繁，东太平洋厄尔尼诺现象更加强烈

• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-022-00324-9
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• 影响因子: 9
• 作者: Shin, Na;Kug, Jong;Stuecker, Malte F.;Jin, Fei;Timmermann, Axel;Kim, Geon
• 通讯作者: Kim, Geon

Weak Hadley cell intensity changes due to compensating effects of tropical and extratropical radiative forcing

由于热带和温带辐射强迫的补偿效应，弱哈德来环流强度发生变化

• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-022-00287-x
• 发表时间: 2022-08-01
• 期刊: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• 影响因子: 9
• 作者: Doyeon Kim;Hanjun Kim;Sarah M. Kang;M. Stuecker;T. Merlis
• 通讯作者: T. Merlis

More Than Marine Heatwaves: A New Regime of Heat, Acidity, and Low Oxygen Compound Extreme Events in the Gulf of Alaska

不仅仅是海洋热浪：阿拉斯加湾的热、酸度和低氧化合物极端事件的新状态

• DOI: 10.1029/2023av001039
• 发表时间: 2024-02
• 期刊: AGU Advances
• 影响因子: 8.4
• 作者: Hauri, Claudine;Pagès, Rémi;Hedstrom, Katherine;Doney, Scott C.;Dupont, Sam;Ferriss, Bridget;Stuecker, Malte F.
• 通讯作者: Stuecker, Malte F.

Persistent Ocean Anomalies as a Response to Northern Hemisphere Heating Induced by Biomass Burning Variability

持续的海洋异常是对生物质燃烧变异引起的北半球加热的反应

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0090.1
• 发表时间: 2023-12
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Yamaguchi, Ryohei;Kim, Ji;Rodgers, Keith B.;Stein, Karl;Timmermann, Axel;Lee, Sun;Huang, Lei;Stuecker, Malte F.;Fasullo, John T.;Danabasoglu, Gokhan;et al
• 通讯作者: et al

Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

热带太平洋年代际变化机制

• DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00486-x
• 发表时间: 2023-10-18
• 期刊: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
• 影响因子: 42.1
• 作者: A. Capotondi;S. McGregor;M. Mcphaden;S. Cravatte;Neil J. Holbrook;Yukiko Imada;S. Sanchez;J. Spri
• 通讯作者: J. Spri