Mechanism and Impacts of Intensifying Madden-Julian Oscillations

马登-朱利安振荡加剧的机制和影响

基本信息

批准号：
2140281
负责人：
Patrick Haertel
金额：
$ 43.49万
依托单位：
Yale University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-01-01 至 2024-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2140281&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Mechanism Impacts Intensifying Madden Julian

项目摘要

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a large-scale convective and circulation system that propagates slowly eastward over the equatorial Indian and West Pacific Oceans. It modulates tropical cyclones, monsoons, the surface wind stress on equatorial oceans, and atmospheric rivers of moisture that can cause mid-latitude flooding. The research involves using recently developed dynamical analysis techniques and a novel Lagrangian model to study the mechanism of the MJO and how its impacts are likely to change as the climate warms. The work will help warn society about potential changes to the MJO and associated impacts that might be missed by conventional climate models. The work includes the training and education of a graduate student.A variety of observations indicate that the MJO has intensified in the last century, especially in the latter half. Most climate models suggest MJO rainfall will continue to become heavier in the future, but models are divided on the question of whether MJO circulations will further intensify. This is a critical question, because many of the MJO's impacts are related to the perturbations it causes to wind patterns. In this proposal, the researchers plan to: 1) Develop a new observational composite MJO dynamical structure that is centered on its convective envelope; 2) Partition composite observed and modeled MJO circulations into Kelvin and Rossby wave components and relate them to the mechanism of the MJO; and 3) Simulate MJO changes and associated impacts for the next century using a novel Lagrangian modeling system. This work will help to clarify the dynamics of the MJO in nature and in models, provide an explanation for why some models predict intensifying MJO circulations and others do not, and assess potential impacts from a changing MJO.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）是一个大规模的对流和循环系统，在赤道印度和西太平洋的逐渐向东传播。它调节了热带气旋，季风，赤道海洋上的表面风应力以及可能导致中纬度洪水的大气河流。该研究涉及使用最近开发的动态分析技术和一种新型的拉格朗日模型来研究MJO的机制，以及随着气候温暖的影响，其影响可能会改变。这项工作将有助于警告社会对MJO的潜在变化以及传统气候模型可能会错过的相关影响。这项工作包括对研究生的培训和教育。各种各样的观察表明，MJO在上个世纪有所加强，尤其是在后半段。大多数气候模型都表明，MJO降雨将来会继续变得更重，但是模型在MJO循环是否会进一步加剧的问题上分歧。这是一个关键的问题，因为MJO的许多影响与风模式引起的扰动有关。在此提案中，研究人员计划：1）开发一种新的观察性复合MJO动力学结构，该结构以对流的信封为中心； 2）分区复合材料观察并模拟了MJO循环到开尔文和Rossby波组件中，并将其与MJO的机理相关联； 3）使用新型的拉格朗日建模系统模拟MJO的变化和相关影响。这项工作将有助于阐明自然界和模型中MJO的动态，并提供了一个解释，说明了某些模型为何预测MJO循环的强化，而其他模型则没有，并评估了不断变化的MJO的潜在影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估该基金会的知识点功能和广泛的影响来评估NSF的法定任务。