Collaborative Research: GRate – Integrating data and modeling to quantify rates of Greenland Ice Sheet change, Holocene to future

合作研究：GRate — 整合数据和模型来量化格陵兰冰盖变化率、全新世到未来

基本信息

批准号：
2106971
负责人：
Jason Briner
金额：
$ 189.11万
依托单位：
SUNY at Buffalo
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-09-01 至 2025-08-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2106971&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research GRate Integrating data

项目摘要

The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced devastating melt in recent years. Recent scientific reports highlight how vulnerable the Greenland Ice Sheet is to Arctic climate change and draw a dire picture of the impact of sea-level rise. In order to equip society with the best forecasts of sea level rise for planning, scientists need to improve the ability to simulate – or model – the response of ice sheets to climate change. For this project, scientists from different branches of ice-sheet research will work together to improve ice sheet modelling. The researchers will leverage recent scientific advances to model the entire Greenland Ice Sheet in order to investigate long-term ice-sheet sensitivity to changes taking places in the ocean and atmosphere. The research group is committed to creating an inclusive environment where all team members can learn and excel. The team contains diversity in ethnicity, gender and rank, and will train six early career scholars, recruiting specifically from groups underrepresented in the geosciences, which is among the least diverse STEM fields in the U.S. Results will be made publicly available and will facilitate a broad range of future research about the Arctic system, including ice sheet modeling, model spin-up, paleoclimate reconstruction/synthesis and glacier history. To elevate the capacity of outreach and education programs developed during their first project, the team will build on their “Scientists are Superheroes” outreach program and leverage other, existing outreach frameworks, including making connections with Greenlandic communities and with high school student intern programs at their universities linked to The Young Women’s Leadership School (Bronx, NY) and the Spring Valley (NY) branch of the NAACP, coordinated by our dedicated project educator and outreach specialist. Reducing uncertainties in ice-sheet model predictions is crucial in society’s handling of the sea level crisis. Uncertainties related to ice-sheet instability arise from limited observations, inadequate model representation of ice-sheet processes, and limited understanding of the complex interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets. How atmospheric and oceanic forcing vary through time, and at what timescales each are capable of forcing rapid change, are critical for predicting future ice mass loss, but scientists have been observing ice sheet change for only a short period of time (decades). The PIs propose to scrutinize Greenland Ice Sheet change spanning from the beginning of the Holocene (12,000 years ago) to 2100 CE, making it possible to evaluate the varying roles of atmospheric and ocean forcing on decadal-to-centennial timescales relevant for the future Greenland Ice Sheet evolution. The PIs will utilize their established multi-disciplinary collaboration to combine ice sheet modelling, climate forcing and reconstructions of past ice-sheet change. This will position the team to make predictions of future ice sheet change that are grounded in Greenland Ice Sheet behavior during past climate swings that occurred prior to our brief window of modern observation. The work will lead to lasting products to serve the community's collective effort to better understand ice sheet change: 1) a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model optimized for simulations over long timescales, 2) a Holocene-through-modern set of atmospheric and ocean state estimates optimized for forcing an ice-sheet model, and 3) a database of past-ice sheet configurations and paleoclimate records formatted for model-data comparison.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

近年来，格陵兰冰盖经历了毁灭性的融化。最近的科学报道强调了格陵兰冰盖对北极气候变化的脆弱性，并直接描绘了海平面上升的影响。为了使社会为计划的最佳森林提供规划的最佳森林，科学家需要提高模拟冰盖对气候变化的反应的能力。对于这个项目，来自不同分支研究的科学家将共同改善冰盖建模。研究人员将利用最近的科学进步来对整个格陵兰冰盖进行建模，以调查长期的冰盖敏感性，以改变海洋和气氛的变化。研究小组致力于创建一个包容性的环境，所有团队成员都可以学习和表现出色。该团队包含种族，性别和等级的多样性，并将培训六个早期的职业学者，这些学者专门从地球科学中代表性不足的群体中招募，这是美国公开范围最多样化的STEM领域之一。 To elevate the capacity of outreach and education programs developed during their first project, the team will build on their “Scientists are Superheroes” outreach program and leverage other, existing outreach frameworks, including making connections with Greenlandic communities and with high school student intern programs at their universities linked to The Young Women’s Leadership School (Bronx, NY) and the Spring Valley (NY) branch of the NAACP, coordinated by our dedicated project educator and outreach specialist.减少冰原模型预测中的不确定性对于社会处理海平面危机至关重要。与冰原不稳定性有关的不确定性是由于有限的观察结果，模型的模型表示不足以及对大气，海洋和冰盖之间复杂相互作用的有限理解。大气和海洋的迫使随着时间的流逝而变化，以及每个时间尺度在什么时间范围内能够迫使快速变化，这对于预测未来的冰量损失至关重要，但是科学家一直在短时间（数十年）观察到冰盖变化。 PI提议仔细检查从全新世开始（12，000年前）到公元2100年的格陵兰冰片变化，使得可以评估大气和海洋强迫在十年到中年至中心时间尺度上与未来的格林陆冰层进化相关的大气和海洋作用。 PI将利用其既定的多学科合作来结合冰盖建模，气候强迫和过去冰盖变化的重建。这将使该团队对未来的冰盖变化进行预测，这些变化是在我们短暂的现代观察窗口之前发生的过去气候波动中基于格陵兰冰纸行为的。这项工作将导致持久的产品服务社区的集体努力，以更好地了解冰原的变化：1）最先进的冰片模型，可针对长时间尺度上的模拟进行优化，2）全新世通道的大气和海洋状态集优化了优化的估计，以估算用于迫使冰片模型和3）模型的图案图表的图案，并构建模型。 NSF的法定使命，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的审查标准来评估，被认为是宝贵的支持。