Collaborative Research: Ice sheet sensitivity in a changing Arctic system - using Geologic data and modeling to test the stable Greenland Ice Sheet hypothesis

合作研究：不断变化的北极系统中的冰盖敏感性 - 使用地质数据和建模来检验稳定的格陵兰冰盖假说

基本信息

批准号：
1504267
负责人：
Jason Briner
金额：
$ 77.9万
依托单位：
SUNY at Buffalo
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2015-09-01 至 2020-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1504267&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Ice sheet sensitivity

项目摘要

NontechnicalThere is enough water in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) that, were it to melt, it would raise sea level in most coastal cities significantly with huge consequences for society. In the face of accelerated ice sheet contribution to sea level rise, it remains uncertain how the GrIS will adjust to a warming Arctic, declining sea ice and related changing precipitation patterns. This is a concern, given that future sea level rise is strongly dependent on the GrIS response to arctic change. The scientific community is currently undecided between a model of a dynamic GrIS that becomes greatly reduced during warm periods and a model where it is relatively stable, even through periods warmer than today. This proposal addresses the idea that increased arctic precipitation offsets GrIS mass loss during times of elevated temperature. The researchers will test this by contributing significant new information on arctic system change and related GrIS dynamics during past and ongoing warm periods, and employing an ice sheet modeling effort synthesizing all new data aimed at both past and future GrIS simulations. The researchers explicitly combine multiple scientific disciplines to provide a better understanding of how key arctic system components such as precipitation, temperature, sea-ice cover and GrIS mass balance are interconnected. The results will be of fundamental relevance to the fates of the arctic system, the GrIS and global sea level rise.This project will train six graduate students and one post-doctoral researcher. The cross-cutting research program is paralleled by the scope of the outreach plan, to develop a variety of deliverables, including development of an iBook and public outreach events. In addition the team will participate in public outreach events in Buffalo and New York City, where the public and scientists interact in a casual setting. Finally, this work has synergies with ongoing missions at NASA and other programs within the NSF.TechnicalDue to recent advances in numerical ice sheet models and new sub-ice topography of Greenland, combined with finely-tuned field approaches and geochronologic techniques, the time is ripe for a coordinated, cross-disciplinary effort focusing on cryosphere variability in a warming Arctic; the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and sea ice constitute the largest, and most critical components of the arctic cryosphere. The hypothesis that increased arctic precipitation can counterbalance GrIS mass loss during times of elevated temperatures stems from recent findings suggesting that it may be more stable than expected during interglacials. The researchers will: generate new GrIS margin reconstructions during and since the mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum (9,000 to 5,000 years ago), with a powerful approach that combines lake sediment stratigraphy with new sub-ice topography and novel high-sensitivity cosmogenic isotope methods; develop new Holocene climate reconstructions of moisture, temperature and sea ice conditions from lake and ocean sediments and an advanced synthesis of existing arctic ice core and other paleoclimate data; and employ state-of-the-art numerical ice sheet modeling fueled by ice margin and climate reconstructions to test a range of climatic and dynamic controls on GrIS change. If the idea is supported, then it would suggest a relatively stable GrIS during warm periods. If, however, this project provides evidence that the GrIS retreated considerably during the warmer-than-present mid-Holocene and in turn, that the GrIS has reacted more sensitively to temperature than to precipitation change, the results would support a tightly coupled ice sheet size-temperature link and in turn, a much greater near-term GrIS contribution to sea level rise. Either result will be of fundamental relevance to the fates of the arctic system, the GrIS and global sea level rise.

在格陵兰冰盖（GRIS）中，非技术性的水是足够的水，如果它融化，它将在大多数沿海城市中提高海平面，并对社会产生巨大影响。面对加速的冰盖对海平面上升的贡献，尚不确定格里斯如何适应北极的变暖，海冰下降以及相关的变化降水模式。考虑到未来的海平面上升在很大程度上取决于Gris对北极变化的反应，这是一个问题。目前，科学界尚未确定在温暖时期的动态gri型模型和该模型相对稳定的模型，即使在比今天更温暖的模型中。该提议解决了以下想法：增加北极降水会抵消温度升高时GRIS质量损失。研究人员将通过在过去和正在进行的温暖期间提供有关北极系统变化和相关GRIS动态的重要新信息，并采用冰盖建模工作综合了所有针对过去和将来的GRIS模拟的新数据。研究人员明确结合了多个科学学科，以更好地了解诸如降水，温度，海冰覆盖和Gris质量平衡等关键北极系统组件如何相互联系。结果将与北极系统，GRIS和全球海平面上升的命运至关重要。该项目将培训六名研究生和一名博士后研究员。横切研究计划与外展计划的范围相似，以开发各种可交付成果，包括开发iBook和公共外展活动。此外，该团队将参加布法罗和纽约市的公共外展活动，在那里，公众和科学家在休闲环境中进行互动。最后，这项工作的协同作用是NASA的持续任务以及NSF的其他计划。技术界的最新进展，在数值冰盖模型和格陵兰的新的Sub-Ice地形上，结合了良好的现场方法和良好的地质技术，时代是为了使得跨越的杂种式的杂货不好的时机，以供属于秘密的杂物化。格陵兰冰盖（GRIS）和海冰构成了北极冰冻圈中最大，最关键的成分。在升高温度时，北极降水增加可以抵消GRIS质量损失的假设源于最近的发现表明，它可能比冰川间期间的预期更稳定。研究人员将：在中新新世的最大热量最大（9,000至5，000年前）中产生新的GRIS边缘重建，并采用强大的方法将湖泊沉积物地层与新的亚冰形貌和新型的高敏化宇宙同位素方法相结合；从湖泊和海洋沉积物中开发新世气体，温度和海冰条件的新世气候重建，以及现有的北极冰核心和其他古气候数据的先进合成；并采用由冰缘和气候重建为燃料的最新数值冰盖建模，以测试有关GRIS变化的一系列气候和动态控制。如果支持这个想法，那么这将表明在温暖的时期内相对稳定。但是，如果该项目提供了证据表明，格里斯在较温暖的中新世较温暖的情况下撤退了，而又反过来，则格里斯对温度的反应比对降水量的变化更为敏感，结果将支持紧密耦合的冰片尺寸 - 温度尺寸的链接，而又要更大的近期GRIS对海平面的贡献更大。两种结果都与北极系统，GRIS和全球海平面上升的命运具有基本相关性。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（7）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Early Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet Retreat Influenced Summer Atmospheric Circulation in Baffin Bay

DOI：
10.1029/2023gl103428
发表时间：
2023-06
期刊：
Geophysical Research Letters
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
E. Thomas;A. Cluett;M. Erb;N. McKay;J. Briner;I. Castañeda;M. Corcoran;O. Cowling;D. Gorbey-D.-Go
通讯作者：
E. Thomas;A. Cluett;M. Erb;N. McKay;J. Briner;I. Castañeda;M. Corcoran;O. Cowling;D. Gorbey-D.-Go

Resolving combined influences of inflow and evaporation on western Greenland lake water isotopes to inform paleoclimate inferences