LEAP-HI: Understanding and Engineering the Ecosystem of Firearms: Prevalence, Safety, and Firearm-Related Harms

LEAP-HI：了解和设计枪支生态系统：流行性、安全性和枪支相关危害

• 批准号: 1953135
• 负责人: Maurizio Porfiri
• 金额: $ 200万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1953135&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: LEAP; HI; Understanding; Engineering; Ecosystem

Firearm-related harms are a pressing societal problem that imperils America’s health and prosperity. The US leads high-income countries in both firearm homicide and suicide rates, with almost forty thousand firearm-related deaths in 2017, surpassing motor vehicle-related deaths for the first time. Fundamental understanding of the causal relationships among potentially contributing factors, such as firearm prevalence, state legislation, media exposure, and perceptions of firearm safety is needed. In an engineering sense, these factors are linked in complex and dynamic ways. This Leading Engineering for America's Prosperity, Health, & Infrastructure (LEAP-HI) award supports fundamental research to extend engineering methods for the understanding of the firearm ecosystem, as informed by state-of-art research in public health and social science. Through advancements in complex systems theory, data science, and hypothesis-driven experiments, the project will provide insights for improving public safety in the US. The multi-disciplinary approach will help broaden participation of undergraduate and graduate students at four urban campuses, which thrive on racial and economic diversity, and expose underserved communities to engineering education.This research will first investigate the firearm ecosystem on three different scales. On the macroscale, research will illuminate cause-and-effect relationships between firearm prevalence and firearm-related harms. On the mesoscale, the project will explore the ideological, economic, and political landscape underlying state approaches to firearm safety. On the microscale, research will delve into individual opinions about firearm safety. Next, the three scales will be integrated into a data-driven probabilistic model of the firearm ecosystem to afford predictions of the system evolution, comparative studies with other countries, and what-if analyses to improve health and prosperity in the US. This research will advance the state of knowledge in information-theoretic causality analysis, multilayer complex networks, dimensionality reduction techniques, and human-computer interactions toward an unprecedented engineering understanding of the firearm ecosystem. The techniques developed in this project will constitute a powerful toolbox that can be utilized in other engineering domains pertaining to complex systems, where there is a need for statistically-based methods to elucidate causal mechanisms underlying system dynamics and create predictive data-driven models.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

与枪支相关的伤害是一个紧迫的社会问题，危及美国的健康和繁荣。美国在枪支凶杀率和自杀率方面均领先于高收入国家，2017 年有近 4 万人因枪支而死亡，超过了与机动车相关的死亡人数。第一次需要对潜在影响因素之间的因果关系有基本的了解，例如枪支流行、国家立法、媒体曝光和对枪支安全的看法，从工程意义上讲，这些因素以复杂和动态的方式联系在一起。工程美国繁荣、健康和基础设施 (LEAP-HI) 奖支持基础研究，通过复杂系统的进步，以公共卫生和社会科学领域最先进的研究为基础，扩展工程方法，以了解枪支生态系统。理论、数据科学和假设驱动的实验，该项目将为改善美国的公共安全提供见解，多学科方法将有助于扩大四个城市校园的本科生和研究生的参与，这些校园在种族和经济多样性方面蓬勃发展。 ，并使服务不足的社区接受工程改造这项研究将首先在三个不同的尺度上调查枪支生态系统，研究将阐明枪支流行与枪支相关危害之间的因果关系。在微观尺度上，研究将深入研究有关枪支安全的个人观点。接下来，这三个尺度将被整合到枪支生态系统的数据驱动的概率模型中，以提供系统演变的预测。 , 与其他研究的比较研究这项研究将推进信息论因果关系分析、多层复杂网络、降维技术和人机交互方面的知识水平，以实现前所未有的工程理解。该项目开发的技术将构成一个强大的工具箱，可用于与复杂系统相关的其他工程领域，这些领域需要基于取证的方法来阐明系统动力学的因果机制并创建预测数据。驱动模型。该奖项反映了通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，NSF 的法定使命被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Firearm Acquisition in the United States in Different Presidential Terms

不同总统任期内美国枪支采购的时空模式

• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Chaos
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Wang, Xu;Sipahi, Rifat;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio

A controlled transfer entropy approach to detect asymmetric interactions in heterogeneous systems

检测异构系统中不对称相互作用的受控转移熵方法

• DOI: 10.1088/2632-072x/acde2d
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Journal of Physics: Complexity
• 作者: Das, Rishita;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio

What factors drive state firearm law adoption? An application of exponential-family random graph models

哪些因素推动州枪支法的通过？

• DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115103
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Social Science & Medicine
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Clark, Duncan A.;Macinko, James;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio

Quantifying the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections

量化 COVID-19 大流行在 2020 年美国总统选举中的作用

• DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00299-3
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: The European Physical Journal Special Topics
• 作者: De Lellis P;Ruiz Marín M;Porfiri M
• 通讯作者: Porfiri M

A dynamic factor model to predict homicides with firearm in the United States

预测美国枪支凶杀案的动态因素模型

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102051
• 发表时间: 2023-05
• 期刊: Journal of Criminal Justice
• 影响因子: 5.5
• 作者: Ramallo, Salvador;Camacho, Máximo;Ruiz Marín, Manuel;Porfiri, Maurizio
• 通讯作者: Porfiri, Maurizio