NNA Track 1: Arctic impacts and reverberations of expanding global maritime trade routes

NNA 第 1 轨道：北极影响和不断扩大的全球海上贸易路线的影响

• 批准号: 1927785
• 负责人: Elise Miller-Hooks
• 金额: $ 300万
• 依托单位: George Mason University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-15 至 2025-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1927785&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Arctic; impacts; reverberations

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. As the Arctic thaws, new opportunities for resource exploration and the opening of new trade routes are expected. Increased passage of commodities through these routes and the related industrialization of the Arctic will introduce both opportunities and risks. These will require international agreements and rules of governance to maintain global stability and protect not only the commercial viability of the U.S. Arctic, but also the local peoples, environment, and natural resources. These new opportunities in the Arctic have impacts that reverberate across the globe. This project focuses on creating the mathematical, geophysical, computational, and social knowledge systems needed to understand how the changing Arctic impacts world trade flows and supply chains and to understand the risks to the Arctic's natural and social ecosystems and governance. The research supports U.S. national security interests, addresses global economic welfare, and facilitates greater resilience to new threats to Arctic communities while allowing for sustainable Arctic development and economic growth. Educational and outreach activities include the use of multimedia to disseminate findings to multiple audiences, both academic and non-academic. Also, the investigators plan to conduct dialogues with local stakeholders and conduct international workshops. Lastly, the project fosters the promotion and retention of women and underrepresented minorities in engineering, including native Alaskans. This project develops state-of-the-art numerical models to enhance a high-resolution sea-ice forecasting system to predict Arctic sea ice thickness, ice ridge stability, storm surges, and risks posed to ships from icing. To support maritime infrastructure and improve coastal resilience, models based on arctic coastal dynamics at a variety of scales will also be developed. Creative approaches to improve learning and risk reduction behavior is incorporated into an assessment of risk management from the anticipated increase maritime traffic and related commercial activity. Indigenous approaches to information sharing will be combined with contemporary participatory data collection techniques to develop early warning signs for conflict. Co-production of knowledge with local communities will provide insights that can contribute to models of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and these will be validated in workshops with local stakeholders. Finally, a variety of techniques ranging from stochastic and robust optimization to game theory are used to develop scalable, globally convergent algorithms. The investigators aim to generate a solutions method that can exploit risk predictions from ice physics, coastal dynamics, and social/governance insights to forecast expected cargo traffic through Arctic passageways over time, along with corresponding changes to traffic flows along alternative world trade routes and supply chains.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

航行新北极 (NNA) 是 NSF 的 10 大创意之一。 NNA 项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。 NNA 赋予从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。该奖项部分实现了这一目标。随着北极解冻，预计将出现资源勘探和开辟新贸易路线的新机会。通过这些路线增加商品流通以及相关的北极工业化将带来机遇和风险。这些都需要国际协议和治理规则来维护全球稳定，不仅保护美国北极地区的商业生存能力，而且保护当地人民、环境和自然资源。北极的这些新机遇会在全球范围内产生影响。该项目的重点是创建所需的数学、地球物理、计算和社会知识系统，以了解不断变化的北极如何影响世界贸易流和供应链，并了解北极自然和社会生态系统和治理面临的风险。该研究支持美国国家安全利益，解决全球经济福祉，并促进增强北极社区应对新威胁的能力，同时实现北极的可持续发展和经济增长。教育和外展活动包括使用多媒体向学术和非学术受众传播研究成果。 此外，调查人员计划与当地利益相关者进行对话并举办国际研讨会。 最后，该项目促进了工程领域女性和代表性不足的少数族裔（包括阿拉斯加本地人）的晋升和保留。该项目开发最先进的数值模型，以增强高分辨率海冰预报系统，以预测北极海冰厚度、冰脊稳定性、风暴潮以及结冰对船舶造成的风险。为了支持海洋基础设施并提高沿海复原力，还将开发基于各种尺度的北极沿海动态的模型。改进学习和降低风险行为的创造性方法被纳入对预期海上交通和相关商业活动增加的风险管理的评估中。本土信息共享方法将与当代参与性数据收集技术相结合，以制定冲突预警信号。与当地社区共同生产知识将提供有助于在不确定条件下制定决策模型的见解，这些见解将在与当地利益相关者举行的研讨会上得到验证。最后，从随机和鲁棒优化到博弈论等各种技术被用来开发可扩展的全局收敛算法。研究人员的目标是生成一种解决方案，该方法可以利用冰物理、沿海动力学和社会/治理见解的风险预测来预测一段时间内通过北极通道的预期货物流量，以及沿替代世界贸易路线和供应的交通流量的相应变化该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Increasing Winter Ocean‐to‐Ice Heat Flux in the Beaufort Gyre Region, Arctic Ocean Over 2006–2018

2006 年至 2018 年北冰洋波弗特环流地区冬季海洋至冰热通量增加

• DOI: 10.1029/2021gl096216
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Zhong, Wenli;Cole, Sylvia T.;Zhang, Jinlun;Lei, Ruibo;Steele, Michael
• 通讯作者: Steele, Michael

Enhancing resilience through port coalitions in maritime freight networks

通过海运网络中的港口联盟增强弹性

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.01.015
• 发表时间: 2022-03-01
• 期刊: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
• 作者: Wenjie Li;A. Asadabadi;Elise Miller
• 通讯作者: Elise Miller

Arctic Coastal Storms, Unique in Character and Impact

北极沿海风暴的独特特征和影响

• 发表时间: 2023-01
• 期刊: Coastal Sediments 2023: The Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments
• 作者: Ravens; T.
• 通讯作者: T.

A New Norm for Seasonal Sea Ice Advance Predictability in the Chukchi Sea: Rising Influence of Ocean Heat Advection

楚科奇海季节性海冰进展可预测性的新规范：海洋热平流影响的上升

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0425.1
• 发表时间: 2022-05
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Nakanowatari, Takuya;Inoue, Jun;Zhang, Jinlun;Watanabe, Eiji;Kuroda, Hiroshi
• 通讯作者: Kuroda, Hiroshi

Evidence for an increasing role of ocean heat in Arctic winter sea ice growth

海洋热量在北极冬季海冰生长中作用日益增强的证据

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0848.1
• 发表时间: 2021-03
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Ricker, Robert;Kauker, Frank;Schweiger, Axel;Hendricks, Stefan;Zhang, Jinlun;Paul, Stephan
• 通讯作者: Paul, Stephan