Collaborative Research: RIPS Type 2: Quantifying Disaster Resilience of Critical Infrastructure-based Societal Systems with Emergent Behavior and Dynamic Interdependencies

合作研究：RIPS 类型 2：量化具有紧急行为和动态相互依赖性的基于关键基础设施的社会系统的抗灾能力

• 批准号: 1441224
• 负责人: Elise Miller-Hooks
• 金额: $ 145.28万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2017-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1441224&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; RIPS; Type; Quantifying

This project will create a way to measure the resilience of critical infrastructure-based societal systems (CISSs) that are necessary for community functioning. A CISS is comprised of interdependent buildings that together serve a community function and that are dependent on networks of critical lifelines (water, wastewater, power, natural gas, communications and cyber-communications, and transportation). They are a family of structures that are linked by occupancy type, people, policies, information, geographic location, and/or building services, and thus also rely on human, organizational, political, and cyber links. Examples of a CISS structure include, but are not limited to, a school district, a healthcare delivery system, a government building, a university campus, a hospitality facility, a residential building, or a central business district. The project will focus on the impact of single or compound hazardous events on CISSs. The initial loss of a structure due to physical damage can spread throughout the CISS or its supporting lifelines. Subsequently, these interdependencies are dynamic and change over time through human intervention, emergent organizational behaviors, and policy changes. Finally, repairs and work-arounds can diminish the impact of the hazardous event(s). As a test, the resulting framework and specific techniques will be demonstrated on one type of CISS: a healthcare system. Insights gleaned from this test case can be applied to improve, build, and maintain communities that are more likely to withstand disruption or disaster. This effort will directly inform practicing healthcare managers and emergency planners. The project will uniquely incorporate public policy, organizational policy, organizational behaviors and risk communication into a broader assessment of disaster resilience data of multiple hazards. An integrated approach will be used to describe the role of adaptation (organizational behaviors) and human interventions in interdependency dynamics. The project will seek to understand and model how organizational behaviors emerge and evolve during a disaster event. Moreover, it will study how cyber systems increase the impact of damage, resulting vulnerabilities to follow-on attacks, and approaches to prevent such escalation. Such approaches include risk communications strategies, using security systems and protocols, and taking other adaptive actions. How organizations work together to simulate and interpret reality, and how this can shift or change disaster response, will be studied. The impact of strategic communication on resilience will be measured. Analysis will require dynamic fault-tree and modeling of complex, adaptive systems with time-varying system states and changes. It will address the need for a computational framework for a large-scale model with significant dimensionality concerns. Additionally, educational and outreach tasks are aimed at strengthening the pipeline of women in STEM fields at multiple education and career stages by adopting a "360" mentorship philosophy that will foster training of female scientists of all ages to be high-caliber mentors.

该项目将创建一种方法来衡量社区运作所必需的基于关键基础设施的社会系统（CISS）的弹性。 CISS 由相互依存的建筑物组成，这些建筑物共同服务于社区功能，并依赖于关键生命线网络（水、废水、电力、天然气、通信和网络通信以及交通）。它们是一系列结构，通过占用类型、人员、政策、信息、地理位置和/或建筑服务连接起来，因此也依赖于人力、组织、政治和网络链接。 CISS 结构的示例包括但不限于学区、医疗保健服务系统、政府大楼、大学校园、酒店设施、住宅楼或中央商务区。该项目将重点关注单一或复合危险事件对 CISS 的影响。由于物理损坏而造成的结构最初损失可能会蔓延到整个 CISS 或其支撑生命线。随后，这些相互依赖关系是动态的，并随着时间的推移通过人为干预、紧急组织行为和政策变化而变化。最后，维修和解决方法可以减少危险事件的影响。作为测试，最终的框架和具体技术将在一种类型的 CISS：医疗保健系统上进行演示。从该测试案例中收集的见解可用于改进、构建和维护更有可能抵御破坏或灾难的社区。这项工作将直接告知执业医疗保健管理者和应急计划人员。该项目将独特地将公共政策、组织政策、组织行为和风险沟通纳入对多种灾害的抗灾数据的更广泛评估中。将使用综合方法来描述适应（组织行为）和人类干预在相互依赖动态中的作用。该项目将寻求理解和模拟灾难事件期间组织行为如何出现和演变。此外，它将研究网络系统如何增加损害的影响，从而导致后续攻击的脆弱性，以及防止这种升级的方法。这些方法包括风险沟通策略、使用安全系统和协议以及采取其他适应性行动。将研究组织如何共同努力模拟和解释现实，以及这如何改变灾难响应。将衡量战略沟通对复原力的影响。分析需要动态故障树以及对具有时变系统状态和变化的复杂自适应系统进行建模。它将解决具有重要维度问题的大规模模型的计算框架的需求。此外，教育和推广任务旨在通过采用“360”指导理念，加强女性在 STEM 领域多个教育和职业阶段的培养，从而促进将各个年龄段的女性科学家培养成高素质导师。