NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Navigating Convergent Pressures on Arctic Development

NNA 第 1 轨道：合作研究：应对北极发展的汇聚压力

• 批准号: 2022588
• 负责人: Michael Goldstein
• 金额: $ 11.65万
• 依托单位: Babson College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2022588&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Collaborative; Research; Navigating

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among social systems, natural environment, and built environment in the following NNA focus areas: Arctic Residents, Data and Observation, Forecasting, Global Impact, and Resilient Infrastructure.Few transformations are as dramatic or as complex as those occurring now in the Arctic. There are rapid changes in climate and the environment, in international treaties and regulations, in national security, and claims for territory. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous Peoples are looking to find their place in a changing global economy. This convergence of changes and aspirations is leading to questions about what kinds of infrastructure are needed, where it should be located, and how this may impact Arctic people and environment. This project is using a combination of observations, satellites, maps, and models to identify where useful and viable locations for new development might be located. These kinds of data and analysis have not been combined before to make such an assessment. These locations are then explored with communities, emergency managers, environmental scientists, industry representatives, local governments, and members of Indigenous groups. Through this merging of environmental sciences, real-world engineering, financial analyses, and cultural concerns, the project is documenting likely future developments and understand their impacts on the Arctic environment and its people.Alongside amplified Arctic environmental change, changes in global markets, regional geopolitics, and community aspirations are motivating visions of new opportunities to develop or enhance new industries in shipping, resource extraction, tourism, and fisheries. At the same time, Arctic communities and Indigenous peoples are making clear their aspirations for the future. This project asks how these converging pressures will shape Arctic development between now and 2050. The project is using an approach that is novel through its convergence of diverse disciplines, as follows. Plausible locations for development are being identified using natural resource distributions, national- and company-level ambitions, and community aspirations. High-resolution climate scenarios, observations, and satellite data are providing the environmental context for access and safety requirements. Financial and environmental assessments, regulations, and treaties provide a third layer of evaluation. The integrated product is then interrogated in an iterative manner with an independent International Reference Group of academic, Indigenous and practitioner experts. Through this process, the project is developing an assessment identifying convergent geophysical and socioeconomic pressures on Arctic development, and their potential cascading impacts on local communities, the environment, global commodity chains, and international relations. This assessment seeks to provide a knowledge resource for engagements in grounded community-based research as well as supporting communities, governments, businesses and industries seeking to navigate the New Arctic.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

航行新北极 (NNA) 是 NSF 的 10 大创意之一。 NNA 项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。 NNA 授权从地方到国际范围内的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正规和非正规教育的努力，并在适当的情况下整合知识的共同生产。该奖项通过解决以下 NNA 重点领域中社会系统、自然环境和建筑环境之间的相互作用来实现该目标的一部分：北极居民、数据和观测、预测、全球影响和弹性基础设施。很少有变革能够如此戏剧性或如此巨大。就像现在北极发生的情况一样复杂。气候和环境、国际条约和法规、国家安全和领土主张都在迅速变化。与此同时，北极社区和土著人民正在寻求在不断变化的全球经济中找到自己的位置。这种变化和愿望的融合引发了人们的疑问：需要什么样的基础设施、基础设施应该建在哪里，以及这可能会如何影响北极人民和环境。该项目结合了观测、卫星、地图和模型来确定新开发项目有用且可行的地点。以前从未将这些类型的数据和分析结合起来做出这样的评估。然后与社区、应急管理人员、环境科学家、行业代表、地方政府和原住民群体成员一起探索这些地点。通过环境科学、现实世界工程、财务分析和文化问题的融合，该项目正在记录未来可能的发展并了解其对北极环境及其人民的影响。地缘政治和社区愿望正在激发人们对发展或加强航运、资源开采、旅游业和渔业等新产业的新机遇的憧憬。与此同时，北极社区和原住民也明确表达了他们对未来的愿望。该项目探讨从现在到 2050 年，这些汇聚的压力将如何影响北极的发展。该项目采用了一种融合不同学科的新颖方法，如下所示。正在利用自然资源分布、国家和公司层面的目标以及社区的愿望来确定合理的发展地点。高分辨率气候情景、观测结果和卫星数据为准入和安全要求提供了环境背景。金融和环境评估、法规和条约提供了第三层评估。然后，由学术、本土和从业专家组成的独立国际参考小组以迭代方式对综合产品进行审查。通过这一过程，该项目正在开展一项评估，以确定北极发展面临的地球物理和社会经济压力，及其对当地社区、环境、全球商品链和国际关系的潜在连锁影响。该评估旨在为参与扎根社区的研究提供知识资源，并支持寻求驾驭新北极的社区、政府、企业和行业。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过评估被认为值得支持基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

Conflict’s impact raises costs for Arctic shipping and the climate

冲突的影响增加了北极航运和气候的成本

• DOI: 10.1038/d41586-022-01538-w
• 发表时间: 2022-06
• 期刊: Nature
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: Goldstein, Michael A.;Lynch, Amanda H.;Norchi, Charles H.
• 通讯作者: Norchi, Charles H.

Sanctions or sea ice: Costs of closing the Northern Sea Route

制裁或海冰：关闭北海航线的成本

• DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103257
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: Finance Research Letters
• 影响因子: 10.4
• 作者: Goldstein, Michael A.;Lynch, Amanda H.;Li, Xueke;Norchi, Charles H.
• 通讯作者: Norchi, Charles H.

Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales

CMIP6 整体关于北极航运运营和基础设施时间表的指导

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03172-3
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Li, Xueke;Stephenson, Scott R.;Lynch, Amanda H.;Goldstein, Michael A.;Bailey, David A.;Veland, Siri
• 通讯作者: Veland, Siri

The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts

跨极海航线的开通：物流、地缘政治、环境和社会经济影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104178
• 发表时间: 2020-08
• 期刊: Marine Policy
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Bennett, Mia M.;Stephenson, Scott R.;Yang, Kang;Bravo, Michael T.;De Jonghe, Bert
• 通讯作者: De Jonghe, Bert

Simple Method to Extract Lake Ice Condition From Landsat Images

从陆地卫星图像中提取湖冰状况的简单方法

• DOI: 10.1109/tgrs.2021.3088144
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: Yang, Xiao;Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;Bendezu, Liam P.;Zhang, Shuai
• 通讯作者: Zhang, Shuai