LTREB: Resource pulses and the dynamics of rodents, ticks, and Lyme-disease risk in oak forests

LTREB：资源脉冲以及橡树林中啮齿动物、蜱虫和莱姆病风险的动态

• 批准号: 1947756
• 负责人: Richard Ostfeld
• 金额: $ 60万
• 依托单位: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Inc.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1947756&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: LTREB; Resource; pulses; dynamics; rodents

Lyme disease is the most frequently reported vector-borne disease in the United States and is increasing in incidence and geographic range. Diagnostic tests are imperfect and treatments are sometimes ineffective. As a result, avoidance of exposure to the infected ticks that transmit the disease-causing bacteria is critical to protecting the public from this insidious disease. Avoidance of Lyme disease, in turn, requires knowing where and when infected ticks are expected to be abundant and risk therefore high. The continuation of these studies will allow researchers to better understand the effects of predators as well as environmental variation on mice populations, in order to predict long-term changes in risk of exposure to tick-borne diseases. The research will predict disease risk and will communicate this to the public, through multiple media outlets. The research team will continue to serve on relevant public policy boards at the local, state, and federal levels. Previous research has revealed that high abundance of acorns in the fall stimulates population growth of white-footed mice, resulting in high mouse density the following summer. Newly hatched larval ticks feed more successfully, and acquire pathogens more efficiently, from mice than from other hosts. Larval ticks feeding from abundant mice the summer following a high acorn year molt into nymphs one year later, resulting in high density of infected nymphs, and therefore high risk of Lyme disease, two summers following mast production. The investigators propose to continue research at six core study sites to maintain long-term data on: 1. Acorn and other tree seed production; 2. Population dynamics of mice, chipmunks, squirrels, and deer; 3. Population dynamics of larval, nymphal, and adult blacklegged ticks; 4. Infection prevalence of ticks with zoonotic pathogens; 5. Tick responses to specific climatic variables; and 6. Occurrence of predators and dilution hosts. Despite the predictability of Lyme-disease risk from past acorn production, new patterns and questions have recently emerged. Thus, five central objectives will be pursued: 1. Integrating host-seeking and attached tick subpopulations to develop full models of tick population dynamics under conditions of environmental variability; 2. Establishing a mechanistic basis for modeling climate effects on Lyme disease risk; 3. Determining long-term trends in tree seed production as a consequence of changes in climate, ontogeny, and the relative abundance of species; 4. Understanding top-down effects of mouse predators on rodent-tick interactions; and 5. Develop and iteratively evaluate forecasts for Lyme disease risk from the component parts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

莱姆病是美国最常报告的媒介传播疾病，其发病率和地理范围正在增加。 诊断测试不完善，治疗有时无效。 因此，避免接触传播致病细菌的受感染蜱虫对于保护公众免受这种阴险疾病的侵害至关重要。 反过来，要避免莱姆病，就需要了解受感染的蜱虫预计在何时何地大量出现，因此风险很高。 这些研究的继续将使研究人员能够更好地了解捕食者以及环境变化对小鼠种群的影响，从而预测接触蜱传疾病风险的长期变化。该研究将预测疾病风险，并将通过多种媒体渠道向公众传达这一信息。研究团队将继续在地方、州和联邦各级的相关公共政策委员会任职。 先前的研究表明，秋季大量的橡子会刺激白足鼠的数量增长，导致第二年夏天的老鼠密度很高。与其他宿主相比，新孵化的蜱幼虫从小鼠身上进食更成功，并且更有效地获取病原体。在橡子丰收年之后的夏天，幼虫蜱以丰富的老鼠为食，一年后蜕皮为若虫，导致受感染若虫的密度很高，因此在肥大生产后的两个夏天，莱姆病的风险很高。 研究人员建议继续在六个核心研究地点进行研究，以维护以下方面的长期数据： 1. 橡子和其他树木种子的生产； 2. 小鼠、花栗鼠、松鼠、鹿的种群动态； 3. 黑腿蜱幼虫、若虫和成虫的种群动态； 4、蜱虫人畜共患病原体感染流行情况； 5.勾选对特定气候变量的反应； 6. 捕食者和稀释宿主的出现。 尽管可以预测过去橡子生产带来的莱姆病风险，但最近出现了新的模式和问题。 因此，将追求五个中心目标： 1. 整合寄主寻找和附着蜱亚群，开发环境变化条件下蜱种群动态的完整模型； 2. 建立模拟气候对莱姆病风险影响的机制基础； 3. 确定由于气候、个体发育和物种相对丰度变化而导致的树木种子生产的长期趋势； 4. 了解小鼠捕食者对啮齿动物-蜱相互作用的自上而下的影响； 5. 制定并迭代评估各组成部分对莱姆病风险的预测。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。