PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Geomorphic Versus Climatic Drivers of Changing Coastal Flood Risk

预防事件轨道 2：协作研究：变化的沿海洪水风险的地貌与气候驱动因素

• 批准号: 1854773
• 负责人: James Booth
• 金额: $ 26.81万
• 依托单位: CUNY City College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854773&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PREEVENTS; Track; Collaborative; Research; Geomorphic

Coastal flooding is one of the most dangerous and damaging natural hazards that societies face, and coastal development and climate change are causing a dramatic rise in vulnerability. Since the 19th century, estuary channels have typically been deepened and widened by a factor of two or three, harbor entrances have been deepened and streamlined, and a large proportion of wetlands have been filled over and replaced with neighborhoods. Such geomorphic changes increase flood risk by reducing natural resistance to storm surge and tides. Similarly, sea level rise and climate-modulated variations in storm characteristics such as intensity, size and track path also alter flood risk. The overarching goal of the proposed research project is to reveal and contrast the mechanisms by which these geomorphic and climatic changes alter flood risk. This goal will be met using a combination of computational modeling, historical climate and storm surge data analysis, and theory-based synthesis. The study will provide support for a postdoctoral research associate and several graduate students and undergraduates, including underrepresented groups. It will improve the well-being of communities within urbanized harbors and estuaries by highlighting coastal development practices that can worsen coastal flooding. The project plan increases scientific literacy and engagement, and connects the research to applications through interactions with local stakeholders and governments, as well as the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers.The project will improve the understanding and separation of climatic and geomorphic factors in coastal flooding through several elements of novel research and technical innovation. The investigators will use a unique tide-gauge data set that extends back to the 19th century together with contemporary, retrospective, and idealized hydrodynamic models to elucidate system sensitivities. Well-known, simplified insights into tidal dynamics will be tested for storm surge, then used to help interpret how altered local topography, bathymetry and wetland area have changed frictional damping and long-wave mechanics. A combined analysis of climate, storm characteristics, and morphologic change will identify the modes and pathways through which climate variability and bathymetric change modulate storms surges. Advanced non-stationary univariate and multivariate statistical models will be developed and employed to incorporate these changes and assess how statistical properties relevant for coastal design and risk assessments respond. A flood model inter-comparison workshop will help quantify relevant modeling sensitivities, which will help to improve estuary and floodplain predictions for the academic and operational forecasting community.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

沿海洪水是社会面临的最危险和最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，沿海开发和气候变化正在导致脆弱性急剧上升。 自 19 世纪以来，河口航道通常加深和加宽了两到三倍，港口入口加深和精简，大部分湿地被填满并被社区取代。 这种地貌变化降低了对风暴潮和潮汐的自然抵抗力，从而增加了洪水风险。 同样，海平面上升和风暴特征（例如强度、规模和路径）的气候调节变化也会改变洪水风险。 拟议研究项目的总体目标是揭示和对比这些地貌和气候变化改变洪水风险的机制。 这一目标将通过计算建模、历史气候和风暴潮数据分析以及基于理论的综合的结合来实现。 该研究将为一名博士后研究员以及几名研究生和本科生（包括代表性不足的群体）提供支持。 它将通过强调可能加剧沿海洪水的沿海开发实践来改善城市化港口和河口内社区的福祉。 该项目计划提高科学素养和参与度，并通过与当地利益相关者和政府以及美国地质调查局和美国陆军工程兵团的互动将研究与应用联系起来。该项目将增进对气候和地貌的理解和分离通过新颖的研究和技术创新的几个要素来研究沿海洪水的影响因素。 研究人员将使用可追溯到 19 世纪的独特验潮数据集以及当代、回顾性和理想化的流体动力学模型来阐明系统敏感性。 众所周知，对潮汐动力学的简化见解将针对风暴潮进行测试，然后用于帮助解释当地地形、测深和湿地面积的变化如何改变了摩擦阻尼和长波力学。 对气候、风暴特征和形态变化的综合分析将确定气候变化和水深变化调节风暴潮的模式和途径。 将开发和采用先进的非平稳单变量和多元统计模型来纳入这些变化，并评估与沿海设计​​和风险评估相关的统计特性如何响应。 洪水模型相互比较研讨会将有助于量化相关模型的敏感性，这将有助于改善学术和业务预测界的河口和洪泛区预测。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识进行评估，被认为值得支持。优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective

美国东海岸热带气旋风暴潮概率：基于气旋的视角

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Towey, Katherine L.;Booth, James F.;Rodriguez Enriquez, Alejandra;Wahl, Thomas
• 通讯作者: Wahl, Thomas

Predictable Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Coastal Flood Risk Due To Long‐Term Tidal Cycles

长期潮汐周期导致的极端海平面和沿海洪水风险的可预测变化

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jc018157
• 发表时间: 2022-03
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: Enríquez, Alejandra R.;Wahl, Thomas;Baranes, Hannah E.;Talke, Stefan A.;Orton, Philip M.;Booth, James F.;Haigh, Ivan D.
• 通讯作者: Haigh, Ivan D.

Storm Surge, Blocking, and Cyclones: A Compound Hazards Analysis for the Northeast United States

风暴潮、阻塞和旋风：美国东北部的复合灾害分析

• DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-21-0062.1
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: Booth, James F.;Narinesingh, Veeshan;Towey, Katherine L.;Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth
• 通讯作者: Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth