Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional Policy

经济学博士论文研究：用非常规政策摆脱长期停滞

• 批准号: 1851920
• 负责人: Catherine Eckel
• 金额: $ 3.6万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-05-01 至 2022-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851920&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Escaping

PI Last Name: EckelTitle: Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional PolicyProposal ID: 1851920 Institution: Texas A&M UniversityAbstractThis research project uses laboratory experiments to understand periods of prolonged low economic growth, as distinct from cyclical low-growth periods. The goal of the project is to simulate an economy in the laboratory within which we can trigger a permanent decline in economic activity along with falling prices, and then to explore various policy interventions that have the potential to repair the stagnant economy. In particular, the project focuses on what actions policy makers can take (monetary and fiscal policy) to restore the experimental economy to full employment. The research explores whether the timing and contextual communication of policy can influence the efficacy of policy. The laboratory experiments in this project are designed to explore secular stagnation in a closed economy. Specifically, the research implements a recent formalization of secular stagnation that uses an overlapping-generations structure to break the representative agent assumption and allow for endogenous bouts of activity at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Exogenous deleveraging shocks can trigger spending gluts that create deflation, and lead to a secular stagnation equilibrium, which can be unique. The objective of the research is to identify whether deflationary and inflationary equilibria emerge when they are unique, and to explore equilibrium selection when multiple equilibria exist. Additionally, the project investigates the ability of monetary policy, in the form of inflation targeting, and fiscal policy, consisting of "helicopter drops" financed using lump-sum taxes levied on the middle-aged cohort in our experimental economy, to pull the economy out of a deflationary equilibrium following a debt-deleveraging shock. Both potential remedies improve economic conditions through an expectations channel by making households more optimistic about future economic conditions. Finally, the project studies the effect of variation in both the timing and contextual communication of policy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PI 姓氏：Eckel 标题：经济学博士论文研究：用非常规政策摆脱长期停滞提案 ID：1851920 机构：德克萨斯 A&M 大学摘要该研究项目使用实验室实验来了解经济长期低增长时期，这与周期性低增长时期不同。 该项目的目标是在实验室中模拟经济，在该经济中我们可以引发经济活动永久性下降以及价格下跌，然后探索有可能修复停滞经济的各种政策干预措施。该项目特别关注政策制定者可以采取哪些行动（货币和财政政策）来使实验经济恢复充分就业。 该研究探讨了政策的时机和背景沟通是否会影响政策的有效性。 该项目的实验室实验旨在探索封闭经济中的长期停滞。具体来说，该研究实现了近期长期停滞的形式化，该形式使用重叠代结构来打破代表代理人假设，并允许在零下限（ZLB）处发生内源性活动​​。 外源性去杠杆化冲击可能会引发支出过剩，从而造成通货紧缩，并导致长期停滞平衡，这可能是独一无二的。研究的目的是确定通货紧缩和通货膨胀均衡在唯一时是否出现，并探讨存在多重均衡时的均衡选择。此外，该项目还调查了货币政策（以通胀目标制为形式）和财政政策（包括利用对我们实验经济中的中年群体征收的一次性税收提供资金的“直升机投放”）拉动经济的能力。摆脱债务去杠杆化冲击后的通货紧缩平衡。这两种潜在的补救措施都可以通过预期渠道改善经济状况，让家庭对未来的经济状况更加乐观。最后，该项目研究了政策的时间和背景沟通变化的影响。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?

央行是否应该在其预测中传达不确定性？

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.11.013
• 发表时间: 2021-03
• 期刊: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Rholes, Ryan;Petersen, Luba
• 通讯作者: Petersen, Luba