Collaborative Research: Measuring Preference Stability and Change: A Panel Study

合作研究：衡量偏好稳定性和变化：小组研究

• 批准号: 1534411
• 负责人: Catherine Eckel
• 金额: $ 27.21万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-15 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1534411&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Measuring; Preference; Stability

General SummarySocial scientists and policy makers rely on assumptions about people?s preferences to explain human behavior. Preferences are thought to be stable, measureable and predictive of economic and social success. For example when a policy is designed to get people to save for the future we make assumptions about citizens' preferences for discounting the future. We have measures that approximate how much people value the future and we rely on those measures to inform policy. The problem is that we do not know whether those measures are either valid or reliable. Do they predict the significant life choices that individuals make? The same problem holds for many measures of preference that are used when making public policy. The aim of this project is to develop measures of preference that will be accurate and simple to use, and that will predict behavior. Technical SummaryHuman preferences are assumed to be stable, measurable and predictive of economic, social and political success. Preferences related to risk, time discounting (or patience), altruism, trust, reciprocity, and competition provide the underpinnings for models of decision-making in arenas as diverse as investment, savings, charitable giving and volunteering, collective decision making, voting and civic engagement, or the choice of a profession. While preferences are key constructs for the social sciences, they have proven difficult to measure. We make use of a natural experiment, random assignment of students to four-year residential colleges, to accomplish three objectives. First, we will calibrate commonly used measures of preference and test for their reliability and validity. Second, we will measure preference stability. Our study allows us to measure preferences over time with the same individuals in an effort to gauge whether they remain stable. Preference stability is a central claim in the social sciences, yet we know little about which preferences are stable. Third, we will map preferences to outcomes. By using a panel of subjects tracked over five years we can identify which measures of preference predict outcomes like civic engagement, competitive behavior, and academic and employment success.

一般摘要社会科学家和政策制定者依靠对人们偏好的假设来解释人类行为。偏好被认为是稳定的、可衡量的，并且可以预测经济和社会的成功。例如，当一项政策旨在让人们为未来储蓄时，我们会对公民对未来贴现的偏好做出假设。我们有衡量人们对未来的重视程度的衡量标准，并且我们依靠这些衡量标准来制定政策。问题是我们不知道这些措施是否有效或可靠。它们能否预测个人做出的重大人生选择？制定公共政策时使用的许多偏好措施也存在同样的问题。该项目的目的是开发准确且易于使用的偏好测量，并且可以预测行为。技术摘要人类偏好被认为是稳定的、可测量的，并且可以预测经济、社会和政治的成功。 与风险、时间折扣（或耐心）、利他主义、信任、互惠和竞争相关的偏好为投资、储蓄、慈善捐赠和志愿服务、集体决策、投票和公民等多种领域的决策模型提供了基础参与，或者职业的选择。虽然偏好是社会科学的关键概念，但事实证明它们很难衡量。我们利用自然实验，将学生随机分配到四年制住宿学院，以实现三个目标。首先，我们将校准常用的偏好测量并测试其可靠性和有效性。其次，我们将衡量偏好稳定性。我们的研究使我们能够衡量同一个人随时间的偏好，以判断他们是否保持稳定。偏好稳定性是社会科学的一个核心主张，但我们对哪些偏好是稳定的知之甚少。第三，我们将把偏好映射到结果。通过使用五年来跟踪的一组主题，我们可以确定哪些偏好指标可以预测公民参与、竞争行为以及学术和就业成功等结果。