PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: A Dynamic Unified Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Analysis and Prediction Spanning across the Coastal Floodplain and Ocean

预防事件轨道 2：协作研究：跨沿海洪泛区和海洋的飓风风暴潮分析和预测的动态统一框架

• 批准号: 1855047
• 负责人: Joannes Westerink
• 金额: $ 45.66万
• 依托单位: University of Notre Dame
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-15 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1855047&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PREEVENTS; Track; Collaborative; Research; Dynamic

Storm-driven coastal flooding is influenced by many physical processes including riverine discharges, regional rainfall, wind, atmospheric pressure, wave-induced set up, wave runup, tides, and fluctuating baseline ocean water levels. Operational storm surge models such as those used by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System) incorporate a variety of these processes including riverine discharges, atmospheric winds and pressure, waves, and tides. However, coastal surge models do not typically incorporate the impact of rainfall across the coastal floodplain nor fluctuations in background water levels due to the oceanic density structure. Nonetheless, the floodplain hydrology and ocean baseline water levels provide vital controls in riverine and estuarine environments (e.g., the dramatic effect seen in the Houston metropolitan region during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and in North Carolina during Hurricane Florence in 2018). Recent events have shown that a unified approach that incorporates all the relevant physical processes is critical for accurate predictive simulations of coastal flooding due to extreme events. This project will tackle this challenge by melding hydrology, hydraulics, and waves into a dynamic unified computational framework that uses unstructured meshes spanning from the deep ocean to upland areas and across the coastal floodplain. Improved capacity for flood risk managers, the insurance industry, and city planners to evaluate flood risk across the entire coastal floodplain. Improved models will lead to better guidance on development and construction practices, will help make cities more resilient and will reduce risk for coastal populations and infrastructure. In addition, this work will improve coastal flood forecasting enabling federal, state, and local disaster managers, to optimize issuing warnings for evacuation and emergency planning. The collaboration between the ocean circulation, coastal hydrodynamics, and hydrology modeling communities fostered by this project will help support ambitious projects such as NOAA's National Water Center's National Integrated Water Model, which is at the preliminary stages of integration of hydrology and coastal hydrodynamics. Training of students at the intersection of hydrology, coastal hydrodynamics, physical oceanography, and computational mathematics, to help develop and apply ever-more complex and advanced models in academia, government and industry.The proposed unified framework will improve the predicted water level gradient and flows throughout the coastal floodplain by integrally considering the rainfall-driven hydrology within the coastal floodplain as well as improving the background open ocean water level. Well-developed but coarse global ocean models will be heterogeneously coupled to high-resolution 2D shallow water equation models in order to account for large-scale baroclinic ocean processes that impact coastal water levels. Interface strategies and conditions between heterogeneous physics will be developed that allow the interfaces to move in time and space for the range of physics from dry to surface runoff to pressurized flow. Applying the right physics and associated mathematical models as the storms evolve will result in more robust and accurate models, as well as much more efficient models. This will dynamically account for the hydrologic - hydrodynamic interaction of water across the floodplain. Dynamic load balancing will account for widely varying computational (CPU) costs for each set of physics and the dynamic migration of the physics will be implemented within the heterogeneous parallel computing environment.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

风暴驱动的沿海洪水受到许多物理过程的影响，包括河流排放，区域降雨，风，大气压，波浪引起的设置，波浪升压，潮汐，潮汐和波动的基线海水水平。运营风暴潮模型，例如NOAA海洋预测中心（潮汐激增和潮汐操作预测系统）所使用的风暴模型，其中包括各种此类过程，包括河流排放，大气风和压力，波浪，波浪和潮汐。但是，由于海洋密度结构，沿海电涌模型通常不会纳入整个沿海洪泛区的降雨影响，也不会纳入背景水位上的波动。尽管如此，洪泛区水文学和海洋基线水位在河流和河口环境中提供了重要的控制（例如，2017年哈维飓风期间休斯顿大都会地区以及2018年佛罗伦萨飓风期间在北卡罗来纳州的北卡罗来纳州，在休斯顿大都市地区看到的戏剧性影响）。最近的事件表明，结合所有相关物理过程的统一方法对于由于极端事件而导致的沿海洪水进行准确的预测模拟至关重要。该项目将通过将水文学，液压学和波浪融合到动态的统一计算框架中来应对这一挑战，该计算框架使用了从深海到高地地区以及整个沿海洪泛区的非结构化网格。洪水风险经理，保险业和城市规划人员的能力提高了整个沿海洪泛区的洪水风险。改进的模型将为开发和建筑实践提供更好的指导，将有助于使城市更具弹性，并降低沿海人口和基础设施的风险。此外，这项工作将改善沿海洪水预测，使联邦，州和地方灾难经理能够优化发布疏散和紧急计划的警告。该项目促进的海洋循环，沿海流体力学和水文学建模社区之间的合作将有助于支持雄心勃勃的项目，例如NOAA国家水中心的国家综合水模型，该模型正处于水文和沿海水力学一体化的初步阶段。在水文，沿海流体力学，物理海洋学和计算数学的交集中对学生的培训，以帮助发展和应用学术界，政府和行业中的越来越多的复杂模型。拟议的统一框架将改善预测的水位梯度，并通过在沿海水平的水平进行沿海水平的水平来改善沿海水平的沿海洪水层，并改善了沿海水平。发达但粗糙的全球海洋模型将异质耦合到高分辨率2D浅水方程模型，以说明影响沿海水位的大型斜压海洋工艺。将开发出异质物理学之间的界面策略和条件，从而使界面可以在从干燥到表面径流到加压流的物理范围内的时空移动。随着风暴的发展，应用正确的物理和相关的数学模型将导致更健壮和准确的模型以及更有效的模型。这将动态解释整个洪泛区水的水文 - 水动力相互作用。动态负载平衡将为每组物理学的计算（CPU）成本发生广泛，物理学的动态迁移将在异质并行计算环境中实施。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并认为通过基金会的知识分子功能和广泛的影响来评估CRETERIA，并被认为是值得通过评估的支持。

项目成果

Dissipation and Bathymetric Sensitivities in an Unstructured Mesh Global Tidal Model

非结构化网格全球潮汐模型中的耗散和测深灵敏度

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jc018178
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: Blakely, Coleman P.;Ling, Guoming;Pringle, William J.;Contreras, María Teresa;Wirasaet, Damrongsak;Westerink, Joannes J.;Moghimi, Saeed;Seroka, Greg;Shi, Lei;Myers, Edward
• 通讯作者: Myers, Edward