Collaborative Research: PREEVENTS Track 2: Quantifying the Risk of Extreme Solar Eruptions (Quest)

合作研究：预防事件轨道 2：量化极端太阳喷发的风险（探索）

• 批准号: 1854760
• 负责人: Xudong Sun
• 金额: $ 30.43万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-01 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854760&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; PREEVENTS; Track; Quantifying

Solar activity is the primary driver of severe space weather at Earth. The potentially most dangerous events are eruptive X-class flares/Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) that can cause major geomagnetic storms and hazardous solar energetic particles. The 1859 "Carrington" event, if it were to happen in the present day, would cause significant damage to our technological infrastructure. Extreme solar eruptions of similar magnitude to the Carrington event have occurred in the space age, but fortunately were not primarily Earth directed. Observations of other stars, and glimpses into our past using measurements of cosmogenic radioactive nuclides, suggest that even more violent eruptions may be possible. The driver for all of these events is magnetic energy that is stored in powerful solar active region magnetic fields and then explosively released. This project will (1) fundamentally enhance our understanding of the regions that produce extreme solar eruptions, and (2) identify the conditions that foreshadow imminent extreme events and their possible magnitude. To make the science accessible to the general public, the team will leverage and enhance an ongoing partnership between the Community Coordinated Modeling Center and the American Natural History Museum of New York to provide compelling visualizations for high-impact public shows. This project will support the dissertation research of a PhD student at the University of Hawaii and thus contribute to the educational goals of NSF. This research focuses on five science questions: What determines how much energy can be stored to drive major solar eruptions? What determines the fraction of stored energy that is released in these eruptions? What is the largest possible eruption, based on known solar active regions? What roles do multiple eruptions play in maximizing geoeffective structures? What is the statistical likelihood of Carrington-like or greater size eruptions? These questions will be addressed using nonlinear force-free field models, magnetohydrodynamic simulations, analytic flux-rope models, and the theory of partially open fields to investigate eruptions for some of the largest and most complex ARs that have been observed during the space age. By propagating the associated CMEs to Earth's orbit, the maximum values will be inferred for space-weather relevant parameters that the most extreme events can produce at Earth. Magnetic data from solar active regions spanning four decades will be used to bound the size of the largest eruption for known regions. Finally, statistical techniques (previously used to estimate the occurrence-probability of extreme geomagnetic storms) will be employed to calculate the probability of a Carrington-like or worse solar eruption in a given decade.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

太阳能活动是地球上严重空间天气的主要驱动力。可能最危险的事件是X级式耀斑/冠状质量弹出（CME），可能导致重大的地磁风暴和危险的太阳能颗粒。 1859年的“卡林顿”事件（如果今天发生）将对我们的技术基础设施造成重大损害。与卡灵顿事件相似的极端太阳喷发发生在太空时代，但幸运的是不是主要是针对地球的。使用宇宙放射性核素的测量值对其他恒星进行观察，并瞥见我们的过去，这表明可能是可能的剧烈喷发。所有这些事件的驱动器是磁能，该磁能存储在强大的太阳能区域磁场中，然后爆炸。该项目将（1）从根本上增强我们对产生极端太阳喷发区域的理解，（2）确定预示了即将出现的极端事件及其可能的幅度的条件。为了使公众可以使用科学，该团队将利用和增强社区协调的建模中心与纽约美国自然历史博物馆之间的持续合作伙伴关系，为高影响力的公众展览提供令人信服的可视化。该项目将支持夏威夷大学博士生的论文研究，从而促进NSF的教育目标。这项研究的重点是五个科学问题：什么决定可以存储多少能量来推动重大太阳爆发？是什么决定了这些喷发中释放的存储能量的比例？基于已知的太阳活动区域，最大的可能喷发是什么？多次爆发在最大化地理填充结构中起着什么作用？类似于卡林顿的统计可能性是什么？这些问题将使用非线性无力的场模型，磁性水力学模拟，分析通量模型以及部分开放场的理论来解决这些问题，以研究在太空时代观察到的一些最大，最复杂的ARS的爆发。通过将相关的CME传播到地球轨道，将推断出最极端事件可以在地球上产生的空间间隔参数的最大值。跨越四十年的太阳能活动区域的磁数据将用于结合已知区域最大喷发的大小。最后，将采用统计技术（以前用来估计极端地磁风暴的发生性概率），以计算给定十年中类似卡林顿或更糟糕的太阳能爆发的可能性。这项奖项反映了NSF的法规任务，并认为通过基金会的知识优点和广泛的critia criter scriter scriter criter criteria criter criteria criter criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria criteria均值得一提。

项目成果

Torus-stable zone above starspots

星斑上方的环面稳定区

• DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stab3249
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Török, Tibor;DeRosa, Marc L.
• 通讯作者: DeRosa, Marc L.

Deducing the reliability of relative helicities from nonlinear force-free coronal models

• DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202038921
• 发表时间: 2020-09
• 期刊: Astronomy & Astrophysics
• 影响因子: 6.5
• 作者: J. Thalmann;Xudong Sun;K. Moraitis;M. Gupta

Rapid Evolution of Bald Patches in a Major Solar Eruption

• DOI: 10.3847/2041-8213/ac31b7
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: The Astrophysical Journal Letters
• 作者: Jonathan H. Lee;Xudong Sun (孙旭东);M. Kazachenko