Analyses of Large-scale Climate Variability: Understanding Periodicity in the Extratropical Storm Tracks

大尺度气候变率分析：了解温带风暴路径的周期性

• 批准号: 1734251
• 负责人: David Thompson
• 金额: $ 69.79万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2021-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1734251&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Analyses; Large; scale; Climate; Variability

Weather systems appearing on daily maps are driven by the temperature contrast between the tropics and the poles, which is expressed dynamically as the baroclinicity of the atmosphere, or the variation of pressure on surfaces of constant density. Pressure differences on density surfaces produce a pressure gradient force, which provides the kinetic energy that powers weather systems and the winds associated with them. Recently the PI demonstrated that the interplay between baroclinicity and kinetic energy (in this case referred to as eddy kinetic energy or EKE), results in variations in the vigor of weather activity with a period between 20 and 25 days (see AGS-1343080). The 20-25 day oscillation was documented in the longitudinally averaged EKE of the Southern Hemisphere and has an annular structure with peak amplitude near the center of the storm track. The mode is thus referred to as the Southern Baroclinic Annular Mode (SBAM), and the PI has identified a comparable although weaker counterpart, the NBAM, in the Northern Hemisphere.Work funded here seeks to develop a physical understanding of the modes, using a combination of observational data analysis and model simulations to understand why the modes exist and what determines their periodicity, spatial structure, relationship to individual weather systems, and other characteristics. The work also considers the implications of the modes for practical weather forecasting, in part by examining their predictability in the forecasts archived as part of the Seasonal to Subseasonal Prediction Project (performed under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization).The research is of societal as well as scientific interest due to the possible implications of predictable oscillations in weather activity for long-range forecasting. The PI and his group also perform outreach to the local school district through presentations to students and teachers on the science of weather and climate. In addition, the project supports two graduate students, thereby providing for the future workforce in this research area.

每日地图上出现的天气系统是由热带和电线杆之间的温度对比驱动的，这些温度对比度为大气的斜射性，或者在恒定密度的表面上的压力变化。 密度表面的压力差会产生压力梯度力，从而提供了为天气系统和与之相关的风提供动力的动能。 最近，PI证明了斜射性与动能之间的相互作用（在这种情况下，称为涡流能量或EKE），导致天气活性活力的变化，介于20到25天之间（参见AGS-1343080）。 在南半球的纵向平均EKE中记录了20-25天的振荡，并具有环形结构，在风暴轨道的中心附近具有峰值振幅。 因此，该模式被称为南部斜压环模式（SBAM），PI在北半球确定了一种可比但较弱的NBAM，NBAM在此处资助的工作旨在通过对模式和模型的组合来了解对模式的组合，以了解对个人的形式和其他确定的态度，以确定这些模式的形式和确定性的阶段，以确定态度和模型的形式，并确定了这些模式的结合，并确定了这些模式，并确定了其他确定的态度。这项工作还考虑了该模式对实际天气预测的含义，部分是通过检查其在季节至中期预测项目的一部分的预测中的可预测性（在世界气象组织的主持下进行的。 PI和他的小组还通过向学生和老师的天气和气候科学进行演讲，向当地学区进行宣传。 此外，该项目还支持两名研究生，从而为该研究领域提供了未来的劳动力。

项目成果

Quantifying the Role of Ocean Dynamics in Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Variability

量化海洋动力学在海洋混合层温度变化中的作用

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0476.1
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Patrizio, Casey R.;Thompson, David W.
• 通讯作者: Thompson, David W.

On the Observed Relationships between Wintertime Variability in Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension Sea Surface Temperatures and the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0343.1
• 发表时间: 2018-05
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Samantha M. Wills;D. Thompson

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0112.1
• 发表时间: 2021-06-01
• 期刊: BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Lim, Eun-Pa;Hendon, Harry H.;Wang, Guomin
• 通讯作者: Wang, Guomin

The Role of Tropical, Midlatitude, and Polar Cloud-Radiative Changes for the Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming

热带、中纬度和极地云辐射变化对中纬度环流对全球变暖响应的作用

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0073.1
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Albern, Nicole;Voigt, Aiko;Thompson, David W.;Pinto, Joaquim G.
• 通讯作者: Pinto, Joaquim G.

Observed connections of Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes to Northern Hemisphere surface climate

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa57a4
• 发表时间: 2017-02-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Ivy, Diane J.;Solomon, Susan;Thompson, David W. J.
• 通讯作者: Thompson, David W. J.