Collaborative Research: An exploration of the direct and indirect effects of climatic warming on arctic lake ecosystems

合作研究：探索气候变暖对北极湖泊生态系统的直接和间接影响

• 批准号: 1603302
• 负责人: Byron Crump
• 金额: $ 28.35万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-07-15 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1603302&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; exploration; direct; indirect

Arctic ecosystems are warming at some of the fastest rates observed on earth. In particular, Arctic lakes are experiencing more frequent years of warmer and deeper surface water. However, the ability to detect and quantify ecosystem effects and specific biological responses to these climatic changes has been primarily limited to non-mechanistic modeled scenarios and observational studies in uncontrolled environments. These lakes provide subsistence harvest for native communities in the Arctic and it is important to understand how the level of sustainable harvests might change under scenarios of continued warming. This project will manipulate the temperature regime of selected Arctic lakes, observe the consequent changes of the lake ecosystem, and model these. This project will contribute to STEM workforce development through provision of support for the training of graduate students at two institutions. It will also entrain undergraduate students into the research. Through a collaboration with the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the principal investigators will provide outreach to Iñupiat high school students via the Kaktovik Science Camp and to Iñupiat K-12 students via the Arctic Village Science Camp Goonzhii. They will contribute to the management of natural resources by presentations through established collaborations with the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, as well as through an interactive seminar series with local communities, e.g. the North Slope Borough of Alaska.This project will complete a multi-year, whole-lake warming manipulation, to quantify the effects of future climate change on lake ecosystems in the Arctic. In addition, regional climate and lake models will be coupled with biotic responses to better understand the sensitivity of lakes to changing atmospheric conditions. The project is designed to answer: How will warmer lake temperatures and extended growing season alter (1) lake ice coverage and annual thermal regime; (2) abundance, activity, and diversity of primary and secondary producers; (3) fish vital rates, production, and dynamics; and (4) degree of carry-over across growing seasons and cumulative effects. Experimental results will be combined with long-term, archived data to inform a linked modeling system (coupled lake-climate model and integrated physical, climate, biological, and bioenergetic modeling) to answer: How will warmer lake temperatures and an extended growing season alter: (1) lake thermal regimes at regional scales, and (2) fish populations across lake types of the Arctic. This research will quantify lake thermal processes and lake-atmosphere feedbacks, provide more precise projections of lake horizontal and vertical temperature structures, and document and project lake biota and ecosystem responses to changes in lake thermal condition over large spatial scales and under different climate scenarios.

北极生态系统正在以地球上观察到的最快的速度变暖，特别是北极湖泊的地表水越来越频繁地变暖和加深，但是，检测和量化生态系统影响以及对这些气候变化的特定生物反应的能力已经提高。主要限于不受控制的环境中的非机械模拟情景和观测研究。这些湖泊为北极当地社区提供了维持生计的收获，了解在持续变暖的情况下可持续收获水平可能如何变化非常重要。将操纵该项目将通过为两个机构的研究生培训提供支持，促进 STEM 劳动力的发展，同时还将吸引本科生进入该项目。通过与美国鱼类和野生动物管理局合作，主要研究人员将通过 Kaktovik 科学营向 Iñupiat 高中学生以及通过 Arctic Village Science Camp Goonzhii 向 Iñupiat K-12 学生提供服务。将通过与美国鱼类和野生动物管理局以及阿拉斯加鱼类和狩猎部建立的合作，以及通过与阿拉斯加北坡自治市等当地社区的互动研讨会系列，为自然资源管理做出贡献。该项目将完成多年的全湖变暖控制，以量化未来气候变化对北极湖泊生态系统的影响。此外，区域气候和湖泊模型将与生物反应相结合，以更好地了解湖泊的敏感性。改变大气条件。旨在回答：湖泊温度升高和生长季节延长将如何改变（1）湖泊冰覆盖和年度热状况；（2）初级和次级生产者的丰度、活动和多样性；（3）鱼类的生命率、产量和产量。 (4) 生长季节的遗留程度和累积效应将与长期存档数据相结合，为链接的建模系统提供信息（耦合湖泊气候模型和综合物理、气候、生物、和生物能建模）来回答：如何温暖的湖泊温度和延长的生长季节会改变：（1）区域尺度的湖泊热状况，以及（2）北极湖泊类型的鱼类种群。这项研究将量化湖泊热过程和湖泊大气反馈，提供更精确的数据。湖泊水平和垂直温度结构的预测，并记录和预测湖泊生物群和生态系统对大空间尺度和不同气候情景下湖泊热状况变化的响应。