Collaborative Research: P2C2--Multi-proxy Reconstructions of North Pacific Decadal Variability from Bivalve Mollusks and Trees

合作研究：P2C2——双壳类软体动物和树木北太平洋年代际变化的多代理重建

• 批准号: 1602828
• 负责人: Bryan Black
• 金额: $ 43.54万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-05-15 至 2018-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1602828&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Multi; proxy

This project has three main scientific goals aimed at: 1) benchmarking pre-industrial ranges of North Pacific decadal variability for comparison to observed 20th century patterns as well as modeled paleo and future datasets of hemispheric climate; 2) addressing unresolved questions regarding poor agreement among existing tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific decadal variability and the possibility that linkages across marine and terrestrial systems vary in character and strength over time; and 3) examining long-term linkages between the North Pacific and tropical Pacific by comparing reconstructions of North Pacific decadal variability to independent reconstructions of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.Decadal-scale variability in the North Pacific Ocean plays a fundamental role in the socioeconomic and environmental dynamics of western North America with clearly established implications for fisheries production, forest growth, wildfire, drought, and snowpack. This major mode of Earth's climate system has historically been characterized as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation for which signatures have been identified in biological and physical indicators across Asia, Australia, and South America and even in global-scale trends in sea level and surface temperature. However, there remains considerable and long-standing uncertainly in its behavior prior to AD 1900 and the extent to which 20th century dynamics are atypical in a multi-centennial context. In this study, three paleoclimate proxy data sources will be integrated to reconstruct North Pacific decadal variability. First, a network of exactly dated chronologies will be produced from growth-increment widths of long-lived marine bivalve Pacific geoduck (Panopea generosa), the growth of which is demonstrated to be highly sensitive to sea surface temperatures. Radiocarbon (14C) data in geoducks, once cross-dated and placed in the appropriate calendar years, will yield another perspective on North Pacific decadal variability with information regarding long-term changes in water mass age and coastal ocean circulation. Finally, existing tree-ring chronologies from the North Pacific rim will be integrated with the geoduck data to maximize reconstruction power and accuracy in a multi-proxy approach.The broader impacts involve support for an early career scientist, grad student, and post-doc, and will involve undergraduate students in the research activities. The research aims to provide useful insights into PDO variability, the reasons for divergence among regional tree ring records, the environmental settings of native cultures and fisheries in the past, and insights into marine reservoir effects. If achieved, these would be important scientific impacts. The proposal has an element of risk but that risk is offset by the potential benefit in new scientific understanding.

该项目具有三个主要的科学目标，旨在：1）与观察到的20世纪模式进行比较，以及对半球气候的古老和未来数据集进行比较的基准测试。 2）解决有关北太平洋十年变化可变性现有的树木环重建以及海洋和陆地系统之间的联系的可能性在特征和力量随着时间的推移而有所不同的可能性； 3）通过将北太平洋际交往可变性的重构与埃尔尼诺南部南部振荡的独立重建进行比较，检查北太平洋与热带太平洋之间的长期联系。北太平洋的季度变化在北太平洋的量表变化在社会经济和环境动态中与清晰的生产范围的境内融合了Fisherf Fishers，在北部的社会经济和环境动态中起着基本的作用。地球气候系统的这种主要模式在历史上被认为是太平洋衰老振荡，在亚洲，澳大利亚和南美的生物和物理指标中，在海平面和表面温度的全球尺度趋势中都已经确定了签名。 但是，在公元1900年之前的行为以及20世纪的动态在多个百年纪念的情况下，其行为仍然存在很大且长期存在。在这项研究中，将将三个古气候代理数据源集成以重建北太平洋十年的变异性。首先，将通过长寿命的海洋双壳太平洋geoduck（Panopea Generosa）的生长增加宽度（Panopea Generosa）产生一个准确的时间表的网络，其生长被证明对海面温度高度敏感。 Geoducks中的放射性碳（14C）数据（一旦跨日期）放置在适当的日历年中，将对北太平洋十年型变异性产生另一种视角，并提供有关水质量年龄和沿海海洋循环的长期变化的信息。最后，北太平洋缘的现有树环将与Geoduck数据集成，以最大程度地提高重建能力和准确性，以多种态度的方法进行重建能力和准确性。更广泛的影响涉及对早期职业科学家，毕业生学生和DOC的支持，并将参与研究生的研究活动。该研究旨在提供有关PDO变异性的有用见解，区域环记录之间差异的原因，过去的本地文化和渔业的环境环境以及对海洋储层效应的见解。如果实现，这些将是重要的科学影响。该提案具有风险元素，但这种风险被新科学理解的潜在利益所抵消。