History and future of coastal upwelling modes and biological responses in the California Current

加州洋流沿海上升流模式和生物反应的历史和未来

• 批准号: 1130125
• 负责人: Bryan Black
• 金额: $ 33.8万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-01 至 2013-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1130125&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: History; future; coastal; upwelling; modes

Climate variability on multiple temporal scales is increasingly recognized as a major factor influencing the structure, functioning, and productivity of the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). Yet, despite many long-term and integrative studies, a detailed understanding of climatic impacts on upwelling and biological processes is still lacking, compromising our abilities to assess important concepts such as ecosystem "health" and "resilience." To address these issues in the central-northern CCE, the PIs have recently collated and analyzed records of rockfish and salmon growth and seabird reproductive success with respect to upwelling variability (NSF award #0929017). These diverse, multi-decadal time series revealed the importance of wintertime upwelling on ecosystem structure and function, even though upwelling, a principal driver of productivity in the CCE, is largely a summertime process. This research led to an unexpected discovery that winter and summer upwelling vary independently of one another in distinct seasonal "modes", with some biological processes affected by the winter mode and others by the summer mode. This is of significance because the summer mode shows a long-term increase (despite inter-decadal variability) while the winter mode does not. Intellectual Merit: In this new project, the PIs will test the overarching hypothesis that upwelling modes are forced by contrasting atmospheric-oceanographic processes, exhibit contrasting patterns of low- and high-frequency variability, and will be differentially impacted by global climate change with corresponding impacts on biology. To address this hypothesis the PIs propose a three-tiered approach to better understand seasonal upwelling modes and their differential impacts on biology of the CCE. First, they will examine the responses of an entirely new suite of species to upwelling modes, including Pacific sardine (recruitment), black rockfish (growth), rhinoceros auklet and Brandt's cormorant (survival), and coho salmon (survival). Previously, coarsely resolved upwelling indices were used in these analyses, but the PIs now will integrate winds and temperatures from local buoy data to better capture climate variability on finer timescales. Second, they will derive a more mechanistic understanding of seasonal upwelling modes and use this information in combination with global climate models to forecast upwelling responses under various climate-change scenarios. Third, preliminary results indicate that tree-ring data co-vary with the fish and seabirds and are similarly sensitive to a driver of winter upwelling, the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI). The PIs will use tree-ring data to provide a 300-400 year reconstruction of the winter NOI to assess the historical range of variability in upwelling mean and variance. This study will reveal the past, present forcing, and potential future of upwelling and its biological consequences in the California Current.Broader Impacts: This study will explore the history, future, and biological impacts of independent, seasonal climate modes and their impacts on key species. In so doing, the PIs will develop an understanding of coupled climate-ecosystem change that will be contributed to state, national, and international policy-makers, including the California Cooperative Climate Adaptation Team (CO-CAT)and the IPCC Assessment Report 5. The PIs will develop and test biological and physical indicators of California Current ecosystem productivity and will make this information available for management, specifically fisheries stock and integrated ecosystem assessments. The project will provide cross-training for 2 post-doctoral research associates, 2 other young scientists, and 1 undergraduate in physical oceanography, marine ecology, quantitative skills, communication, as well as the business of science, such as project and fiscal management and fund-raising.

多个时间尺度上的气候变化越来越被认为是影响加利福尼亚当前生态系统（CCE）结构，功能和生产力的主要因素。然而，尽管有许多长期和综合研究，但仍然缺乏对气候对上升和生物过程的影响的详细理解，这仍然缺乏对我们评估重要概念（例如生态系统“健康”和“韧性”等重要概念的能力。为了解决中央北部CCE中的这些问题，PI最近对岩石鱼类和鲑鱼生长以及海鸟生殖成功的记录进行了分析（NSF奖＃0929017）。这些多样化的多年时间序列揭示了冬季上升对生态系统结构和功能的重要性，尽管CCE中生产力的主要驱动力上升是夏季的过程。这项研究导致意外发现，冬季和夏季上升流的独立于彼此不同，以不同的季节性“模式”，其中一些生物学过程受冬季模式的影响，而其他夏季模式则受到了夏季模式的影响。这是重要的，因为夏季模式显示长期增加（尽管冬季变化范围差异），而冬季模式却没有。智力优点：在这个新项目中，PI将检验总体假设，即上升模式受到对比的大气环节过程的强迫，表现出低频和高频差异的对比模式，并将受到全球气候变化与对生物学的相应影响的差异影响。为了解决这一假设，PI提出了一种三层方法，以更好地了解季节性上升流及其对CCE生物学的不同影响。首先，他们将研究一套全新物种对上升模式的反应，包括太平洋沙丁鱼（招募），黑岩鱼（Growth），犀牛·奥克莱特（Rhinoceros Auklet）和布兰特（Brandt）的Cormant（生存）和Coho Salmon（生存）。以前，在这些分析中使用了粗糙的上升指数，但是PIS现在将整合来自本地浮标数据的风和温度，以更好地捕获更精细的时间表的气候变化。其次，他们将获得对季节性上升模式的更机械理解，并将这些信息与全球气候模型结合使用，以预测各种气候变化方案下的上升响应。第三，初步结果表明，树环数据与鱼类和海鸟共同变化，并且对北部振荡指数（NOI）的冬季上升流驱动器同样敏感。 PI将使用树环数据提供300 - 400年的冬季NOI重建，以评估上升平均值和差异的历史可变性范围。这项研究将揭示上升流的过去，现在的强迫和潜在的未来及其在加利福尼亚州电流中的生物学后果。Boader的影响：这项研究将探讨独立，季节性气候模式及其对关键物种的独立，季节性气候模式的历史，未来和生物学影响。在这样做的过程中，PI将对气候生态生态系统的变化有所了解，这将促成州，国家和国际决策者，包括加利福尼亚合作社气候适应团队（CO-CAT）和IPCC评估报告5。PIS将开发并测试了California当前的生态系统的生产力和范围的范围，并将其用于管理范围，并将其用于管理范围。该项目将为2名博士后研究助理，其他2位年轻科学家和1名本科生提供交叉训练，从而为物理海洋学，海洋生态学，定量技能，沟通以及科学业务，例如项目和财政管理和筹款活动。