Collaborative Research: Climate Change and Upwelling -- Comparative Analysis of Current & Future Responses of the California and Benguela Ecosystems

合作研究：气候变化与上升流——当前的比较分析

• 批准号: 1434732
• 负责人: Bryan Black
• 金额: $ 49.28万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1434732&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Climate; Change; Upwelling

Along the west coasts of North and South America, Africa, and Iberia, alongshore equatorward winds bring nutrient-rich waters to the sunlit surface of the ocean, stimulating phytoplankton blooms that support robust, rich and diverse ecosystems. This process is known as "upwelling". Because upwelling is driven by winds, and winds are related to atmospheric conditions, upwelling is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, the potential impacts of climate change on upwelling and biology remain largely uncertain. In earlier work in the California Current upwelling system, off the west coast of the United States, researchers found that upwelling occurs in distinct winter and summer "modes" that have different impacts on biology. In this project, oceanographic and atmospheric data from the Benguela Current system, off South Africa and Namibia, will be analyzed for similar seasonal patterns and relationships with the ecosystem. Comparisons between these two upwelling systems will allow researchers to investigate if previous findings of regional climate impacts on biology are applicable at a global scale and consider how these systems may change in the future. The project will facilitate collaboration between researchers from South Africa, Namibia, and the United States, integrating a team of young and senior scientists from the three countries and providing them with opportunities for broad-scale scientific synthesis early in their careers.This project will be a comparative analyses of climate forcing and biological responses in the California Current (CCS) and Benguela Current systems (BCS), the two upwelling systems with the most similar time series of atmospheric and oceanographic conditions, seabird demography, and lower (chlorophyll) and mid (forage fish) trophic data. The project will determine whether changes in the ecosystems can be attributed to regional or global climate processes. Growth-increment chronologies from fish in the BCS (deep-water hake) will be developed as indicators of upper-trophic fish growth, and compared to rockfish growth chronologies developed in the CCS. Mid-trophic level fish abundance will be modeled as indices of prey availability for integration between climate and upper-trophic-level parameters. Oceanographic and atmospheric data will be analyzed from global observational and reanalysis data sets, as well as from earth system model projections of climate change. The project will address the following questions: 1) are seasonal upwelling modes (winter and summer) discernible in the BCS as they are in the CCS? 2) are upwelling modes forced by similar or contrasting atmospheric forcing mechanisms? 3) is there evidence of coherence/covariance among mid-trophic fish, upper-trophic fish, and seabirds (and at which lags) within and between the CCS and BCS? 4) will the positioning and amplitude of the atmospheric pressure systems that result in upwelling-favorable winds change coherently between ecosystems under various climate-change scenarios? and 5) what are the fisheries and wildlife management implications for variability in the seasonality and spatial distribution of upwelling in a changing climate?

沿着北美，非洲和伊比利亚的西海岸，沿岸赤道风将营养丰富的水带到海洋的阳光表面，刺激浮游植物盛开，以支持强大，丰富和多样化的生态系统。 这个过程被称为“上升流”。 因为上升是由风驱动的，并且风与大气条件有关，因此上升非常容易受到气候变化的影响。但是，气候变化对上升和生物学的潜在影响在很大程度上仍然不确定。 研究人员在美国西海岸附近的加利福尼亚当前上升系统的早期工作中发现，上升流发生在对生物学影响不同的冬季和夏季“模式”中的不同。 在这个项目中，将分析来自南非和纳米比亚附近的Benguela当前系统的海洋学和大气数据，以分析类似的季节性模式以及与生态系统的关系。 这两个上流系统之间的比较将使研究人员能够调查以前对生物学影响生物学影响的发现是否适用于全球范围，并考虑将来这些系统如何变化。 The project will facilitate collaboration between researchers from South Africa, Namibia, and the United States, integrating a team of young and senior scientists from the three countries and providing them with opportunities for broad-scale scientific synthesis early in their careers.This project will be a comparative analyses of climate forcing and biological responses in the California Current (CCS) and Benguela Current systems (BCS), the two upwelling systems with the most similar time series大气和海洋学条件，海鸟人口统计学以及较低（叶绿素）和中（觅食鱼）营养数据。 该项目将确定生态系统中的变化是否可以归因于区域或全球气候过程。 BCS（深水习惯）的鱼类的生长时间表将作为上营养性鱼类生长的指标发展，并与CCS中开发的岩石鱼生长年代表相比。 中营养水平的鱼类的丰度将被建模为在气候和高层参数之间整合猎物的指标。 将从全球观察和重新分析数据集以及地球系统模型的气候变化投影中分析海洋学和大气数据。 该项目将解决以下问题：1）在BCS中，在CCS中是否可以识别出季节性上升流动方式（冬季和夏季）？ 2）上升模式是否因类似或对比的大气强迫机制强迫吗？ 3）是否有证据表明，中营养性鱼，上营养性鱼和海鸟（以及在CCS和BCS之间的滞后）之间有一致性/协方差？ 4）在各种气候变化的情况下，生态系统之间有利于上升的风的大气压力系统的定位和振幅是否会在生态系统之间有一致的变化？ 5）在不断变化的气候下，渔业和野生动植物管理对季节性上升的空间分布的变化有何影响？