High Resolution Earth System Modeling for International Climate Assessment Using Blue Waters Capabilities

利用 Blue Waters 功能进行国际气候评估的高分辨率地球系统建模

• 批准号: 1516624
• 负责人: Robert Rauber
• 金额: $ 1.5万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1516624&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Resolution; Earth; System; Modeling; International

This project will use state-of-the-art computational resources, namely Blue Waters, and cutting-edge modeling software in advancing the study of climate change and its potential impacts on our planet over this century. It is expected that results from our studies will be an integral part of the scientific analysis of climate change for the next major international climate assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the next U.S. National Climate Assessment. These assessments are an important input to the national and international policy development process. These analyses will be a significant contribution to the coordinated international special computational studies and model intercomparison to analyze past and projected future changes in the Earth?s climate system. In addition, the results of these studies will be fully available to the scientific community for further analyses and resulting insights into the processes, mechanisms, and consequences of climate variability and climate change. On top of this, these studies will be a major input to studies of the potential impacts of climate change on human society across many different sectors (e.g., health, food, water, energy, transportation) and on ecosystems. No previous global modeling study has provided such high resolution information at the regional scales over the time periods needed to fully analyze these issues. The simulations and analyses are designed to use the Blue Waters petascale computing resources and could not be completed without a computational facility like Blue Waters.This project has two purposes. The first is aimed at better quantifying future regional climate change by running a high-resolution (0.25 degree atmosphere, 1 degree ocean) global coupled climate model, namely an advanced version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in the framework of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6) to meet the needs for the next generation assessments of climate change. CMIP6 will be the next phase in the international coordination of special computational studies to analyze the past and projected future changes in the Earth?s climate system. CESM, one of the world?s best models of the Earth?s climate system, has been developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in coordination with a community of scientists at universities and national laboratories. The second purpose will be specific studies that grow upon our existing NSF PRAC project to further clarify the understanding the effects of small-scale regional features and interactions across spatial scales in climate through even higher-resolution CESM modeling studies on Blue Waters that will push the state-of-the-art for such analyses. For this project, we have assembled a team from the University of Illinois and the National Center for Atmospheric Research comprised of both highly recognized experts in global climate modeling and analysis and experts in computer science and information technology. This team already has extensive experience with Blue Waters (as well as with other high performance computers) based on the existing PRAC project.

该项目将使用最先进的计算资源（即 Blue Waters）和尖端建模软件来推进本世纪气候变化及其对地球潜在影响的研究。预计我们的研究结果将成为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）下一次重大国际气候评估和下一次美国国家气候评估中气候变化科学分析的组成部分。这些评估是国家和国际政策制定过程的重要投入。这些分析将对协调国际特殊计算研究和模型比较做出重大贡献，以分析地球气候系统过去和预测的未来变化。此外，这些研究的结果将充分提供给科学界，以供进一步分析并深入了解气候变率和气候变化的过程、机制和后果。除此之外，这些研究将成为研究气候变化对人类社会许多不同部门（例如健康、食品、水、能源、交通）和生态系统的潜在影响的主要投入。之前的全球模型研究还没有在全面分析这些问题所需的时间段内提供如此高分辨率的区域尺度信息。模拟和分析旨在使用 Blue Waters 千万级计算资源，如果没有 Blue Waters 这样的计算设施就无法完成。该项目有两个目的。第一个目标是在 CMIP6 框架内运行高分辨率（0.25 度大气，1 度海洋）全球耦合气候模型，即社区地球系统模型 (CESM) 的高级版本，更好地量化未来区域气候变化（耦合模型比对项目，第 6 阶段）以满足下一代气候变化评估的需求。 CMIP6 将是国际协调特殊计算研究的下一阶段，以分析地球气候系统过去和预测的未来变化。 CESM 是世界上最好的地球气候系统模型之一，由国家大气研究中心 (NCAR) 与大学和国家实验室的科学家团体协调开发。第二个目的是在我们现有的 NSF PRAC 项目的基础上进行具体研究，通过对 Blue Waters 进行更高分辨率的 CESM 建模研究，进一步阐明小尺度区域特征和跨空间尺度相互作用对气候的影响，这将推动此类分析的最新技术。对于这个项目，我们组建了一个来自伊利诺伊大学和国家大气研究中心的团队，其中包括全球气候建模和分析领域备受认可的专家以及计算机科学和信息技术领域的专家。该团队已经在基于现有 PRAC 项目的 Blue Waters（以及其他高性能计算机）方面拥有丰富的经验。