OCE-PRF Track 1 (Broadening Participation): The influence of predator-prey interactions on climate-induced range shifts in marine communities

OCE-PRF 第 1 轨道（扩大参与）：捕食者-猎物相互作用对气候引起的海洋群落范围变化的影响

基本信息

批准号：
1521565
负责人：
金额：
$ 17.4万
依托单位：
Selden, Rebecca
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Fellowship Award
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2015-09-01 至 2017-09-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1521565&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
OCE PRF Track Broadening Participation

项目摘要

Trawl surveys conducted over the last 40 years have provided evidence that warming ocean temperatures have driven widespread shifts in the distribution of marine species in the coastal United States, with some species shifting north by more than 200 km. However, not all species have responded at the same rate to these changes in ocean temperatures. As a result, warming could alter key species interactions (such as competition or predation) that could mediate the capacity for these populations to respond to future climate change as well as impact the goods and services provided to humans by these ecosystems, including commercial and recreational fisheries. In this research project, the fellow will examine the influence of predator-prey interactions on regional species shifts related to changes in ocean temperatures. In addition, the fellow will use the results of the research to develop educational materials and an interactive app for the Rutgers Summer Science Program. The activities the fellow will develop for the program have the potential to contribute directly to broadening the participation of under-represented groups in ocean sciences. Most current models predicting range shifts in response to climate change consider each species in isolation. However, predator-prey interactions have the potential to modify the capacity for species to respond to changes in climate. Indeed, invasions by exotic species have been found to be more rapid where populations are released from natural enemies (e.g. ?enemy release?) and are slowed by the presence of predators that resist their establishment (e.g. ?biotic resistance?). This research will demonstrate the degree to which these key concepts from invasion biology apply to climate-induced range shifts and need to be considered when projecting future range shifts. The fellow will utilize a 45-year dataset on predator and prey distributions and ocean temperatures on the U.S. Northeast Shelf. The role of enemy release and biotic resistance will be tested by examining the effect of predator abundance and predator-prey spatial overlap on the rate at which prey populations respond to shifting climates. Fisheries will be considered as human predators. In addition, the fellow will test the direct effect of warming on the overlap between predator and prey. Using these relationships from historical data, range shifts will be projected for future climate scenarios, with and without changes in predator abundance that might result due to fishing. Improving our predictions of range shifts will be critical to forecasting how marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and fisheries will be affected by climate change.

在过去40年中进行的拖网调查提供了证据，表明温暖的海洋温度驱动了美国沿海海洋物种分布的广泛转变，其中一些物种向北转移了200公里以上。但是，并非所有物种都以相同的速度对海洋温度的这些变化做出反应。结果，变暖可以改变关键物种相互作用（例如竞争或捕食），这些相互作用可以调解这些人群应对未来气候变化的能力，并影响这些生态系统提供给人类提供的商品和服务，包括商业和娱乐活动渔业。在这个研究项目中，研究员将研究捕食者 - 捕集媒介相互作用对与海洋温度变化有关的区域物种变化的影响。此外，研究员将使用研究结果来开发教育材料和Rutgers Summer Science计划的交互式应用程序。该计划将开展的研究活动有可能直接贡献扩大代表性不足的群体中海洋科学的参与。大多数当前模型预测响应气候变化的范围变化，将每个物种孤立地考虑。但是，捕食者 - 捕食相互作用有可能改变物种应对气候变化的能力。实际上，已经发现外来物种的入侵更为迅速，而从天然敌人释放人口（例如？敌人释放？），并且由于抗拒其所地的捕食者的存在而减慢了（例如？生物抗性？）。这项研究将证明这些入侵生物学的关键概念适用于气候引起的范围变化的程度，并且在预测未来范围变化时需要考虑。该研究员将利用一个有关美国东北货架上捕食者和猎物分布以及海洋温度的45年数据集。敌人释放和生物抗性的作用将通过检查捕食者丰度和捕食者 - 捕食者空间重叠的影响对猎物人群对变化气候的响应速度的影响。渔业将被视为人类掠食者。此外，研究员将测试变暖对捕食者和猎物之间重叠的直接影响。使用这些关系中的历史数据，将预测范围变化，以供未来的气候场景，而捕食者丰度有所改变，这可能会导致捕鱼。改善我们对范围变化的预测对于预测海洋生物多样性，生态系统功能和渔业将受到气候变化的影响至关重要。