Collaborative Research: An innovative network to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic

合作研究：改善北极变化中海冰预测的创新网络

• 批准号: 1304484
• 负责人: Helen Wiggins
• 金额: $ 43.56万
• 依托单位: Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-06-15 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1304484&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; innovative; network; improve

Recent major changes in the extent, thickness and properties of arctic sea ice have captured attention and posed significant challenges to a diverse group of stakeholders, ranging from maritime safety and security, resource management and development, politicians, coastal communities, weather and climate forecasters, climate change researchers, and a growing segment of the general public. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, especially over the summer and into fall, is of particular interest. Though each stakeholder is driven by different priorities, all require improved monitoring, prediction, and communication of sea ice conditions. To date, sea ice modeling efforts have largely focused on climate scales (i.e., response to greenhouse gas forcing) or targeted synoptic forecasting in support of navigation. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal scales is a challenge because of: (1) high variability in atmospheric and oceanic influence, (2) observations for initialization and validation have limited coverage and/or high uncertainties, (3) limitations of current model capabilities, (4) inherent limitations in sea ice predictability, and (5) an Arctic system changing in ways without recent historical precedent.The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook was implemented four years ago in an ad hoc fashion, requesting voluntary contributions to estimate September sea ice extent based on late spring (June 1) conditions. Contributions have been made using different methods that vary from complex (partially- and fully- coupled general circulation models and statistical relationships) to basic (trend extrapolation, heuristic, public poll). The Outlook will be organized and expanded into a more structured, coordinated and formal effort that focuses on tackling key barriers to sea ice forecasting, including rigorous evaluation of predictions, coordination and organization of relevant observations for initialization, evaluation of methods, and finally, an organizational network structure to manage the efforts and communicate results in new ways. This effort builds on the experience of the past four years and expands on structures already in place, leveraging resources and expertise at an international scale to help address a set of challenges recognized as priorities by a range of U.S. and international programs and organizations.Intellectual Merit - This project advances NSF?s goal of providing improved predictive tools for the Arctic by creating an innovative network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. The network?s focus is to develop new methods to evaluate forecasts, new metrics for synthesis and comparison across forecast methods and new approaches to initialize forecast methods with targeted observations. Finally, the network will investigate how different forecasting methods can be combined to exceed predictive skills of narrower approaches. The research team will explore how best to plan observations for improved seasonal predictions and how these predictions in turn can advance understanding of the evolving state of the arctic sea ice cover.Broader Impacts - Improved seasonal forecasts of arctic sea ice will be developed and disseminated for societal benefit. By fostering and coordinating an international network of researchers and leveraging a broad range of activities, the project provides information tailored to stakeholders? needs. In addition to rigorous evaluations of stakeholder information needs, the network will develop a common reference framework for key sea ice variables and predictors, generating integrated datasets and predicted fields for the scientific community and stakeholders. Activities will also be initiated to inform and engage the growing internet communities of citizen scientists, many of whom already show a strong interest in arctic science, have capabilities for their own original and potentially worthwhile analysis, and connect with wider networks of media and public discussion. The activities will include graduate students and post-docs who are mentored to conduct high-quality research at the intersection of fundamental and applied research. By entraining more young researchers into the network, the project also addresses an important need for qualified experts that can help address urgent questions concerning resource uses and ecosystem services impacted by rapid arctic sea ice change.

北极海冰的程度，厚度和特性的最新重大变化引起了人们的关注，并向多样化的利益相关者提出了重大挑战，从海上安全和保障，资源管理与发展，政治家，沿海社区，风光和气候预报员，气候变化研究者，气候变化研究者以及越来越多的公众范围。对季节到年龄段的时间表的海冰预测，尤其是在整个夏季和秋季，这尤其令人感兴趣。尽管每个利益相关者都受到不同优先级的驱动，但所有利益相关者都需要改进海冰条件的监控，预测和通信。迄今为止，海冰建模的工作主要集中在气候尺度（即对温室气体强迫的反应）或有针对性的天气预测以支持导航。在季节尺度上预测海冰是一个挑战，因为：（1）大气和海洋影响的高度可变性，（2）初始化和验证的观察结果有限和/或高度不确定性，（3）当前模型能力的限制，（4）海冰可预测性的固有局限性，以及在搜索范围内的固有局限性，（5）在冰上的探索中，（5）在冰上的探索中，（5）在冰上探索。时尚，要求根据春季晚期（6月1日）条件为估计9月的海冰范围做出自愿捐款。已经使用不同的方法做出了贡献，这些方法从复杂的（部分和完全耦合的一般循环模型和统计关系）到基本（趋势外推，启发式，公共民意调查）不等。前景将组织起来，并扩展到更具结构化，协调和正式的努力，重点是应对海冰预测的关键障碍，包括对预测的严格评估，协调和组织相关的观察值，对方法的初始化评估，最后，最终，组织网络结构以新的方式管理成果并以新的方式进行交流。 This effort builds on the experience of the past four years and expands on structures already in place, leveraging resources and expertise at an international scale to help address a set of challenges recognized as priorities by a range of U.S. and international programs and organizations.Intellectual Merit - This project advances NSF?s goal of providing improved predictive tools for the Arctic by creating an innovative network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate arctic seasonal sea ice预测。网络的重点是开发新方法来评估预测，用于跨预测方法的合成和比较的新指标以及具有针对性观察的初始预测方法的新方法。最后，网络将研究如何将不同的预测方法组合在一起，以超越较窄方法的预测能力。研究小组将探索如何最好地计划观察结果，以改善季节性预测，以及这些预测如何依次提高对北极海冰覆盖状态不断发展的状态的理解。Boader的影响 - 改进的北极海冰季节性预测将开发并以社会利益进行分发。通过促进和协调国际研究人员网络并利用广泛的活动，该项目提供了针对利益相关者量身定制的信息？需要。除了对利益相关者信息需求进行严格的评估外，该网络还将为关键的海冰变量和预测变量开发一个共同的参考框架，为科学界和利益相关者生成集成数据集和预测领域。还将开始启动活动，以告知和参与不断增长的公民科学家的互联网社区，其中许多人已经对北极科学表现出强烈的兴趣，具有自己的原始且潜在的值得分析的能力，并与更广泛的媒体网络和公众讨论联系起来。这些活动将包括受过指导的研究生和培训活动，他们在基本和应用研究的交集中进行高质量的研究。通过将更多的年轻研究人员纳入网络，该项目还解决了合格专家的重要需求，这些专家可以帮助解决有关资源用途和生态系统服务的紧急问题，以及受北极海冰快速变化影响的生态系统服务。