NSFGEO-NERC Collaborative Research: Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)

NSFGEO-NERC 合作研究：提高海冰的可预测性：海冰预测网络 (SIPN2) 第二阶段

• 批准号: 1748308
• 负责人: Helen Wiggins
• 金额: $ 43.01万
• 依托单位: Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1748308&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSFGEO; NERC; Collaborative; Research; Advancing

NSFGEO-NERC Collaborative Research: Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)The shrinking Arctic sea-ice cover has captured the attention of the world. A downward September trend has accelerated over the last decade, with the 10 lowest September sea-ice extents occurring in the last 10 years. An essentially ice-free Arctic during summer is expected by mid-century. Loss of the sea- ice cover has profound consequences for ecosystems and human activities in the Arctic, so there is an urgent need to advance sea-ice predictions in all seasons at both the pan-Arctic and regional scales. A better quantification of the role of oceanic heat and climate variations in the Pacific sector, new observational-based sea-ice products, and network activities will advance understanding of seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice, the limits of this predictability, and the economic value of forecasts for stakeholders. The network supported by this grant will examine origins and impacts of extreme ocean surface warming in preconditioning the ice cover in the Pacific Arctic for continued major reductions in sea-ice extent and duration. A key finding that emerged from the earlier Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) effort is that predictions of September sea-ice extent tend to have less skill in extreme years that strongly depart from the trend line. The objective of proposed research under Phase 2 of SIPN (SIPN2) is to improve forecast skill through adopting a multi-disciplinary approach that includes modeling, new products, data analysis, scientific networks, and stakeholder engagement. This grant will: Investigate the sensitivity of subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice predictability in the Alaska Arctic to variations in oceanic heat and large- scale atmospheric forcing using a dynamical model Community Earth System Model (NCAR CESM) and statistical forecasting tools, focusing on spatial fields in addition to total extent summaries; Assess the accuracy of Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) submissions based on methodology and initialization; Develop new observation-based products for improving sea-ice predictions, including sea-ice thickness, surface roughness, melt ponds, and snow depth; Evaluate the socio-economic value of sea-ice forecasts to stakeholders who manage ship traffic and coastal village resupply in the Alaska Sector, and engage the public in Arctic climate and sea-ice prediction through blog exchanges, accessible SIO reports, bi-monthly webinars, and by making public data sources useful to non-scientists and scientists alike; and Continue and evolve network activities to generate SIO forecasts and reporting for September minima as in SIPN and expand SIPN2 forecasts to include full spatial resolution and emerging ice-anomaly-months (October - November). This work will directly engage stakeholders that create and use sea-ice forecasts in Alaska and lead to improved safety around sea ice. Work under SIPN2 will also track public awareness and perceptions regarding sea ice, helping to raise understanding through accessible reports, discussions, and public data sources useful to non-scientists and scientists alike. Stakeholder engagement during the research process will potentially facilitate rapid research-to-operations implementation of the products of this work.

NSFGEO-NERC合作研究：提高海冰的可预测性：海冰预测网络（SIPN2）的第2阶段，北极海上冰的收缩吸引了世界的关注。在过去的十年中，九月的下降趋势加速了，9月10日的Sea-Ice比赛发生在过去的10年中。预计将在本世纪中叶到夏季实质上是无冰的北极。海冰覆盖的损失对北极的生态系统和人类活动产生了深远的影响，因此迫切需要在泛氧化和区域尺度上所有季节的海冰预测提高海冰预测。更好地量化了海洋热量和气候变化在太平洋地区，新的基于观察的海冰产品以及网络活动的作用，将提高对北极海冰的季节性可预测性的了解，这种可预测性的局限性以及利益相关者预测的经济价值。该赠款支持的网络将检查极端海面变暖的起源和影响，以预处太平洋北极的冰盖，以继续大大减少海冰范围和持续时间。从较早的海冰预测网络（SIPN）努力中得出的一个关键发现是，对九月海冰范围的预测在极端的几年中往往降低了趋势线的技能。 SIPN（SIPN2）第2阶段研究的拟议研究的目的是通过采用多学科方法来提高预测技能，其中包括建模，新产品，数据分析，科学网络和利益相关者的参与。这项赠款将：研究阿拉斯加北极中季节到季节的海冰可预测性的敏感性，对使用动态模型社区地球系统模型（NCAR CESM）和统计预测工具的海洋热和大规模大气强迫的变化，重点介绍了除总范围的总范围内的空间领域；根据方法和初始化评估海冰前景（SIO）提交的准确性；开发新的基于观察的产品，以改善海冰预测，包括海冰厚度，表面粗糙度，融化池塘和雪深；评估海冰预报对管理船舶交通和沿海村庄的利益相关者的社会经济价值，并通过博客交流，可访问的SIO报告，双月份的网络研讨会以及通过使公共数据源对非社交科学家和科学家的有用来参与北极气候和Sea-Ice预测，并参与北极气候和Sea-Ice预测；并继续并发展网络活动，以产生SIO的预测和9月Minima的报告，例如在SIPN中，并扩大了SIPN2预测，以包括完整的空间分辨率和新兴的冰分月度月份（10月至11月）。这项工作将直接吸引利益相关者，这些利益相关者在阿拉斯加创建和使用Sea-Ice预测，并提高海冰周围的安全性。 SIPN2下的工作还将跟踪公众对海冰的认识和看法，通过可访问的报告，讨论以及对非科学家和科学家有用的公共数据来源来帮助提高理解。在研究过程中，利益相关者的参与将有可能促进这项工作产品的快速研究实施。

项目成果

Moving Sea Ice Prediction Forward Via Community Intercomparison

通过社区比对推进海冰预测

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0159.1
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: Steele, Michael;Eicken, Hajo;Bhatt, Uma;Bieniek, Peter;Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Ed;Wiggins, Helen;Turner-Bogren, Betsy;Hamilton, Lawrence;Little, Joseph;Massonnet, François
• 通讯作者: Massonnet, François