Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate-forced Extinction Risks for Lizards, Amphibians, Fishes, and Plants

合作研究：量化气候迫使蜥蜴、两栖动物、鱼类和植物灭绝的风险

• 批准号: 1241848
• 负责人: Barry Sinervo
• 金额: $ 88.34万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Cruz
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-03-01 至 2018-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1241848&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Quantifying; Climate; forced

Climate change due to increases in anthropogenic carbon is altering global patterns of temperature and rainfall. These environmental changes are transforming plant communities, which in turn may be causing local extinctions of many vertebrate species. For example, when faced with prolonged heat waves and droughts, trees may be unable to draw sufficient water from the soil and drop most of their leaves. Diminished leaf cover allows more sunlight to reach the ground, amplifying local warming trends and increasing heat and water stress for plants themselves and for many vertebrate species. The goal of this award is to evaluate how climate-driven changes to plant communities are increasing extinction rates for certain "cold-blooded" vertebrate species (i.e., lizards, frogs). This study hypothesizes that many such vertebrate species are going extinct in part because rising temperatures are directly stressful to them, and in part because rising temperatures also damage plant communities, upon which animals rely for food, water, and shelter. Intensive studies will be made at specific localities on five continents where targeted animal species have recently gone extinct. At these sites, researchers with expertise in plant and animal physiology and ecology will collaborate to quantify the extent to which recent droughts and warm-spells have altered plant communities, which in turn have increased heat and water stress on animals. These local studies will then be linked (via remote sensing methods and online databases), to create a worldwide data set that integrate information on temperature, rainfall, plant die-offs, and the physiological limits of targeted animals to heat and water stress. Such data will enable scientists to predict and test, with unprecedented accuracy across regions and continents, how extinction rates among targeted vertebrate species relate to current and expected changes in rainfall, temperature, and plant communities.Previous models of climate-warming impacts have focused on plants or animals, but not both. For example, many climate change scientists study animal systems in isolation of plant systems, thus emphasizing only the role of changing climate per se on animal taxa (e.g., rising temperatures limit lizards from foraging in direct sunlight). This project differs by a) modeling how climate-driven changes to plant communities increase warm spells and drought conditions, and b) showing how changes to plant communities alters the environment available used by the targeted animals species and push their physiological limits, speeding their extinction rates. This model will be grounded by field studies that test for non-climate related causes of animal extinctions; this will enable scientists to determine the factors that explain the ever increasing extinction rates among targeted animals. New web-based products will be developed that use remote sensing technology to predict current and future degradations in ecosystems across the globe. A project of this scope requires collaboration among scientists with expertise in climatology, physiology, biodiversity, and remote sensing. An international team from 20 countries will work together on this project; a new generation of postdoctoral research fellows and hundreds of graduate students will be trained in the latest physiological and mathematical methods in climate change studies.

由于人为碳的增加而引起的气候变化正在改变全球温度和降雨模式。这些环境变化正在改变植物群落，这反过来可能导致许多脊椎动物物种的局部灭绝。例如，当面对长时间的热浪和干旱时，树木可能无法从土壤中抽出足够的水并掉下大部分叶子。叶片覆盖的减小使更多的阳光到达地面，扩大了局部变暖趋势，并增加了植物本身和许多脊椎动物的热量和水应力。该奖项的目的是评估气候驱动的植物社区的变化如何增加某些“冷血”脊椎动物（即蜥蜴，青蛙）的灭绝率。这项研究假设许多这样的脊椎动物在部分原因是由于温度直接压力，部分原因是由于温度升高也损害了动物依赖食物，水和庇护所的植物群落。将在有针对性动物物种最近灭绝的五大洲的特定地区进行密集研究。在这些地点，具有动植物生理学和生态学专业知识的研究人员将合作，以量化最近的干旱和温暖塞子改变了植物群落，从而增加了对动物的热量和水压力。然后，这些本地研究将链接（通过遥感方法和在线数据库），以创建一个全球数据集，以整合有关温度，降雨，植物死亡的信息以及目标动物的生理限制，以加热和水压力。这样的数据将使科学家能够预测和测试，并且在各个地区和大陆之间具有前所未有的精度，目标脊椎动物物种之间的灭绝率与降雨，温度和植物社区的当前和预期变化之间的灭绝率是如何相关的。气候温暖影响的预防模型集中在植物或动物上，但两者都不是两者。例如，许多气候变化科学家研究动物系统在隔离植物系统中，因此仅强调气候本身在动物分类单元上的作用（例如，温度升高限制了蜥蜴在阳光直射的阳光下觅食）。该项目的不同是a）建模对气候驱动的植物社区的变化如何增加温暖的咒语和干旱状况，b）展示植物群落的变化如何改变目标动物物种可用的环境并推动其生理限制，从而加快其灭绝率。该模型将由测试非气候相关的动物灭绝原因的现场研究基础。这将使科学家能够确定靶向动物之间不断提高的灭绝率的因素。将开发新的基于Web的产品，该产品使用遥感技术来预测全球生态系统中的当前和未来降解。这个范围的项目需要在气候，生理学，生物多样性和遥感方面具有专业知识的科学家之间的合作。来自20个国家的国际团队将共同努力。新一代的博士后研究研究员和数百名研究生将接受气候变化研究中最新的生理和数学方法的培训。

项目成果

Digest: Predicting the future by learning from the past in lizards’ thermal traits*

摘要：通过学习蜥蜴过去的热特性来预测未来*

• DOI: 10.1111/evo.14333
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Evolution
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Tsai, Hsiang‐Yu

Effects of Caudal Autotomy on the Locomotor Performance of Micrablepharus Atticolus (Squamata, Gymnophthalmidae)

尾部自切术对 Micrablepharus Atticolus（有鳞目，裸眼科）运动性能的影响

• DOI: 10.3390/d13110562
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Diversity
• 作者: Silva, Naiane Arantes;Caetano, Gabriel Henrique;Campelo, Pedro Henrique;Cavalcante, Vitor Hugo;Godinho, Leandro Braga;Miles, Donald Bailey;Paulino, Henrique Monteiro;da Silva, Júlio Miguel;de Souza, Bruno Araújo;da Silva, Hosmano Batista
• 通讯作者: da Silva, Hosmano Batista

Intraspecific diversity alters the relationship between climate change and parasitism in a polymorphic ectotherm

种内多样性改变了多态变温动物中气候变化与寄生之间的关系

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16018
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Global Change Biology
• 影响因子: 11.6
• 作者: Wu, Qiang;Miles, Donald B.;Richard, Murielle;Rutschmann, Alexis;Clobert, Jean
• 通讯作者: Clobert, Jean

Micro and macroclimatic constraints on the activity of a vulnerable tortoise: A mechanistic approach under a thermal niche view

对脆弱陆龟活动的微观和宏观气候限制：热生态位视角下的机械方法

• DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.14148
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Functional Ecology
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Lara‐Reséndiz, Rafael A.;Miles, Donald B.;Rosen, Philip C.;Sinervo, Barry
• 通讯作者: Sinervo, Barry

Habitat thermal quality for Gopherus evgoodei in tropical deciduous forest and consequences of habitat modification by buffelgrass

热带落叶林地鼠栖息地热质量及水牛草改变栖息地的后果

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103192
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Thermal Biology
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Lara-Reséndiz, Rafael A.;Rosen, Philip C.;Sinervo, Barry;Miles, Donald B.;Méndez-de La Cruz, Fausto R.
• 通讯作者: Méndez-de La Cruz, Fausto R.