CAMEO: Comparative Approaches to Predicting the Consequences of an Impending Re-Invasion: Top Predator Effects on Californian Near-Shore Fisheries

CAMEO：预测即将到来的重新入侵后果的比较方法：主要捕食者对加利福尼亚近岸渔业的影响

• 批准号: 1041454
• 负责人: Mark Carr
• 金额: $ 46.51万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Cruz
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-15 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1041454&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAMEO; Comparative; Approaches; Predicting; Consequences

This project will compare the structure and dynamics of central and southern Californian nearshore ecosystems by parameterizing and analyzing the performance of three approaches for modeling these areas. The goals are to develop analytical tools to facilitate ecosystem-based decision making and management, and to forecast how marine reserves and the impending re-invasion of sea otters to southern Californian waters will affect the region's fisheries. The investigators will synthesize and leverage an array of preexisting data from spatially-extensive, long-term monitoring efforts. Along with a time series on the range, density, and feeding habits of sea otters, community data from a network of MPAs and reference sites of known age will provide the large-scale observational experiments needed to disentangle the effects of sea otters and MPAs on the structure and dynamics of California's nearshore ecosystems and their fisheries. The results will be incorporated into three different approaches: 1) EcoPath with EcoSim, 2) Metabolic scaling theory, and 3) Loop Analysis. These models range in data requirements, ease of application, and assumptions, and they vary greatly in the extent to which they simplify biology's complexity. By employing multiple modeling approaches, one can compare predictions for how the effects of MPAs and the impending re-invasion of sea otters will affect the productivity, dynamics, and resilience of these important communities. The data synthesis, analyses, and modeling efforts will provide ecosystem-based information to facilitate management decisions that will be needed in dealing with the impending conflict between the government's protection and supported re-establishment of a federally threatened species, and the preservation and governance of numerous fisheries. The comparisons will advance our understanding of ecosystem processes in central and southern CA kelp forests, including the interaction between bottom-up and top-down processes, and how these are influenced by geographic variation in key structural and functional attributes. On a more practical level, this work will result in 1) a set of analytical tools and effective and transferable ecosystem-based indicators to assess the status, thresholds and resiliency of nearshore temperate reef ecosystems; and 2) a collection of ecosystem-based predictions of short- and long-term community dynamics, including resiliency to environmental change and to commercially and recreationally valued kelp forest fisheries. These products will inform the design of monitoring and evaluation programs for MPAs, and will be especially useful for fisheries managers by helping them predict and accommodate the impacts of the re-invasion of sea otters into southern CA kelp forests. The project will also fulfill educational objectives through the training of 3 postdocs and 1 (Hispanic) graduate student in the development and application of ecosystem models and indicators. Postdocs will receive training in how to convene and run workshops, and to communicate scientific findings to resource managers and policymakers. Finally, the work will lead to the development of a collaborative partnership between academic researchers, NOAA fisheries scientists and USGS ecologists.

该项目将通过参数化和分析对这些区域进行建模的三种方法的性能来比较中部和南加州近岸生态系统的结构和动态。目标是开发分析工具，以促进基于生态系统的决策和管理，并预测海洋储备以及即将重新侵入海洋水獭对南加州水域的重新侵害将影响该地区的渔业。研究人员将从空间扩展的长期监测工作中综合并利用一系列已有数据。除了有关海水流域的范围，密度和喂养习惯的时间序列外，来自MPA网络和已知年龄的参考地点的社区数据还将提供大规模的观察实验，以散布海水管道和MPA对加利福尼亚近岸生态系统及其渔业的结构和动态的影响。结果将纳入三种不同的方法：1）Ecopath具有EcoSIM，2）代谢缩放理论和3）循环分析。这些模型在数据需求，易于应用和假设方面的范围很大，它们在简化生物学的复杂性的程度上差异很大。通过采用多种建模方法，可以比较有关MPA的影响和即将重新侵入海獭的预测，将影响这些重要社区的生产力，动态和弹性。数据综合，分析和建模工作将提供基于生态系统的信息，以促进管理决策，这些决策在应对政府保护与受支持的受联邦威胁物种的支持以及许多渔业的保存和治理之间所必需的冲突。比较将提高我们对中央和南部海带森林中生态系统过程的理解，包括自下而上和自上而下的过程之间的相互作用，以及这些过程如何受到关键结构和功能属性的地理变化的影响。在更实际的层面上，这项工作将导致1）一组分析工具以及有效且可转移的生态系统的指标，以评估近岸温带礁生态系统的状态，阈值和弹性； 2）基于生态系统的短期和长期社区动态的预测，包括对环境变化以及商业和娱乐性海带森林渔业的弹性。这些产品将为MPA的监测和评估计划提供信息，并通过帮助他们预测和适应对南部Ca Kelp森林的海洋水獭重新侵入的影响，对渔业经理特别有用。该项目还将通过培训3个博士后和1名（西班牙裔）研究生在生态系统模型和指标的开发和应用方面实现教育目标。博士后将接受有关如何召开和举办研讨会的培训，并将科学发现与资源经理和政策制定者交流。最后，这项工作将导致学术研究人员，NOAA渔业科学家和USGS生态学家之间的合作伙伴关系发展。