Collaborative Research: (DRU) Modeling Business Return Amid Post-Disaster Uncertainties: New Orleans After Katrina

合作研究：（DRU）在灾后不确定性中模拟业务回报：卡特里娜飓风过后的新奥尔良

• 批准号: 0729259
• 负责人: Nina Lam
• 金额: $ 35.65万
• 依托单位: Louisiana State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-11-01 至 2011-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0729259&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; DRU; Modeling; Business

Building on first-hand telephone and street survey data collected through a previous project on New Orleans businesses after Katrina, this project develops models to quantify determinants of the decisions by businesses to return to their prior location after a disaster. Special attention is given to the spatial relations between a business, its neighborhood, and businesses located nearby. Specifically, this project has four goals: (1) Extend current spatial statistical methods to address the ordinal nature of survey data information pertaining to important dependent variables that exhibit spatial dependence in underlying decisions. (2) Use estimates and inferences from the statistical models to explore the relation between business recovery and various disaster related problems that have confronted businesses. (3) Compare alternative spatial strategies for aid distribution to examine approaches that will maximize recovery. (4) Produce estimates and inferences regarding optimal recovery approaches and measures of recovery potential for other locations that will generalize findings for the analysis of disasters in other locations. The project is the first attempt to formally model business connectivity and interdependence in decision making as it pertains to decisions about disaster recovery. The research has the potential to augment both methodological and substantive knowledge. Findings from this research will have major implications for planning, mitigation, and the recovery of business in New Orleans as well as in other sites of future disasters.

该项目以卡特里娜飓风后新奥尔良企业项目收集的第一手电话和街道调查数据为基础，开发了模型来量化企业在灾难后返回原来所在地的决定的决定因素。特别关注企业、其邻居以及附近企业之间的空间关系。具体来说，该项目有四个目标：（1）扩展当前的空间统计方法，以解决与重要因变量相关的调查数据信息的顺序性质，这些因变量在基础决策中表现出空间依赖性。 (2) 利用统计模型的估计和推论来探索业务恢复与企业面临的各种灾难相关问题之间的关系。 (3) 比较援助分配的替代空间策略，以研究最大化恢复的方法。 (4) 对其他地点的最佳恢复方法和恢复潜力措施进行估计和推论，从而概括其他地点灾害分析的结果。该项目是对决策中的业务连接性和相互依赖性进行正式建模的首次尝试，因为它涉及灾难恢复决策。该研究有可能增强方法论和实质性知识。这项研究的结果将对新奥尔良以及其他未来灾难地点的规划、缓解和业务恢复产生重大影响。