Doctoral Dissertation Research: An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Business Reopenings in New Orleans Post Hurricane Katrina

博士论文研究：卡特里娜飓风过后新奥尔良企业重新开放的基于主体的模拟模型

• 批准号: 1003609
• 负责人: Nina Lam
• 金额: $ 0.87万
• 依托单位: Louisiana State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-04-15 至 2011-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1003609&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Agent; Based

Many observers believe that cities and places subject to frequent natural and human disturbance will reach "tipping points" that inhibit their resilience to the level that recovery may not be possible. Understanding the complex relationships among human and natural systems and the thresholds of tipping points are critical to ensuring sustainable development of cities and regions, especially when they are faced with the threats of both long-term climate change and short-term, large-scale disturbance. Until recently, most of the research in the field of post disaster recovery focused on households or whole communities. The empirical study of business responses to disasters is relatively scarce, despite the fact that businesses are a fundamental part of the cities, providing services, jobs, and taxes that are essential for urban sustainability. This doctoral dissertation research project will develop an agent-based simulation model to represent and understand the businesses reopening process in a dynamic environment in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. The research has two objectives. First, it will identify the main predictors associated with reopening and estimate their relative importance over time, using an empirical data set collected during studies conducted over the previous five years. A computer simulation model based on the parameters derived from the first objective then will be developed and validated to represent the business-reopening process.This project will contribute to geography, related spatial sciences, and other fields that examine disaster economy recovery and dynamic modeling. The use of simulation will enhance understanding of the complex recovery process and how a business opening in one location at one point in time will affect business reopening probabilities in other locations in later time periods. The validated simulation model supported by real data will allow researchers and policy makers to design and test recovery policies so that resources can be better allocated. Although the simulation model will be based on post-Katrina New Orleans data, it will be adaptable for other locations affected by disasters of a similar nature. The simulation and visualization computer program developed in this research will be made available to the open source community. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.

许多观察家认为，经常遭受自然和人为干扰的城市和地区将达到“临界点”，从而抑制其恢复能力，以至于无法恢复。 了解人类与自然系统之间的复杂关系以及临界点阈值对于确保城市和地区的可持续发展至关重要，特别是当它们面临长期气候变化和短期大规模扰动的威胁时。 直到最近，灾后恢复领域的大部分研究都集中在家庭或整个社区。 尽管企业是城市的基本组成部分，提供对城市可持续发展至关重要的服务、就业和税收，但对企业应对灾害的实证研究相对较少。 该博士论文研究项目将开发一个基于代理的模拟模型，以表示和理解卡特里娜飓风过后新奥尔良动态环境中的企业重新开放过程。 该研究有两个目标。 首先，它将利用过去五年研究中收集的经验数据集，确定与重新开放相关的主要预测因素，并估计它们随时间的相对重要性。 然后，将开发和验证基于从第一个目标得出的参数的计算机模拟模型，以代表业务重新开放过程。该项目将为地理学、相关空间科学以及研究灾难经济恢复和动态建模的其他领域做出贡献。 模拟的使用将增强对复杂的恢复过程的理解，以及在某一时间点在一个地点开业将如何影响以后在其他地点重新开业的概率。 由真实数据支持的经过验证的模拟模型将使研究人员和政策制定者能够设计和测试恢复政策，以便更好地分配资源。 尽管模拟模型将基于卡特里娜飓风后的新奥尔良数据，但它将适用于受类似性质灾害影响的其他地点。 本研究中开发的模拟和可视化计算机程序将提供给开源社区。 作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将为有前途的学生建立强大的独立研究生涯提供支持。