CNH: Coupled Natural-Human Dynamics in a Vulnerable Coastal System

CNH：脆弱沿海系统中的自然与人类动态耦合

• 批准号: 1212112
• 负责人: Nina Lam
• 金额: $ 149.99万
• 依托单位: Louisiana State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2018-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1212112&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Coupled; Natural; Human; Dynamics

This interdisciplinary research project will investigate the sustainability of coastal communities that are especially vulnerable to natural resource losses and natural hazards. The investigators will focus on the Lower Mississippi River Basin in Louisiana, which is one of the most vulnerable coasts in the continental United States and the world. Over the years, this deltaic region has endured multiple threats and disasters, such as land loss, subsidence, sea-level rise, flooding, hurricanes, and oil spills. The disappearance of land is a critical problem in the southern part of the region. During the past decade, significant population and economic growth has occurred in the northern part of the study area, whereas the southern part surrounding New Orleans has experienced population and economic decline. A pressing question is whether southern coastal Louisiana reached a tipping point that makes it too costly to sustain. If so, has the same type of economic and ecosystem functions gradually migrated to the neighboring region to the north? The researchers will quantify and explain these changes using a coupled natural-human system approach, and they will evaluate the implications of those findings for future planning and mitigation. The four objectives the researchers will pursue are (1) to develop methods to assess the sustainability or resilience of a coastal system; (2) to develop a system-level model to capture and quantify the dynamic linkages among the major natural and human components; (3) to compare and contrast the resiliency between the northern and southern parts of coastal Louisiana so as to understand the resiliency control factors; and (4) to simulate future scenarios for planning and decision making.This project will assess the sustainability of the lower Mississippi River basin in Louisiana using a coupled natural-human system approach. It will increase basic understanding about the key factors affecting the sustainability of a coastal system and how these key factors interact at a system level. The comparison between the two systems in coastal Louisiana will provide new knowledge regarding how the two systems have been coupled in the past that enhances understanding of system interactions in the present and facilitates projections for the future. The set of sustainability assessment and modeling tools and software developed in this project will be valuable educational as well as decision-making tools for students, other researchers, and decision makers. The project will engage a wide audience, including K-12 students and teachers from underserved schools, local governmental officials, environmental groups, and the public. Project findings will inform policy makers and the public about how to increase the resilience of the region, and they will provide scenarios to better plan for the future. The findings also will provide new insights regarding other deltaic regions around the world that are faced with similar types of threats and challenges. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.

该跨学科研究项目将调查特别容易受到自然资源损失和自然危害的沿海社区的可持续性。 调查人员将专注于路易斯安那州的密西西比河下河流域，这是美国大陆和世界上最脆弱的海岸之一。 多年来，这个三角洲地区已经遭受了多种威胁和灾难，例如土地损失，沉降，海平面上升，洪水，洪水，飓风和漏油事件。 土地的消失是该地区南部的关键问题。在过去的十年中，研究区的北部发生了巨大的人口和经济增长，而新奥尔良的南部地区经历了人口和经济下降。 一个紧迫的问题是，路易斯安那州南部沿海地区是否达到了一个转折点，使其太昂贵了。 如果是这样，相同类型的经济和生态系统功能逐渐迁移到北部的邻近地区？ 研究人员将使用耦合的天然人类系统方法来量化和解释这些变化，他们将评估这些发现对未来计划和缓解的影响。研究人员将追求的四个目标是（1）开发评估沿海系统的可持续性或弹性的方法； （2）开发一个系统级模型，以捕获和量化主要自然和人类组成部分之间的动态联系； （3）比较和对比路易斯安那州沿海北部和南部之间的弹性，以了解弹性控制因素； （4）为了模拟计划和决策的未来方案。该项目将使用耦合的天然人类系统方法来评估路易斯安那州下密西西比河盆地的可持续性。 它将增加对影响沿海系统可持续性的关键因素以及这些关键因素如何在系统级别相互作用的基本理解。 路易斯安那州沿海两个系统之间的比较将提供有关过去如何耦合这两个系统的新知识，从而增强了对当前系统相互作用的理解，并促进了对未来的预测。 该项目中开发的一系列可持续性评估和建模工具和软件将为学生，其他研究人员和决策者提供宝贵的教育以及决策工具。 该项目将吸引广泛的受众，包括K-12学生和服务不足的学校，地方政府官员，环保组织和公众的老师。项目调查结果将为决策者和公众提供有关如何提高该地区的弹性的信息，他们将为未来更好地计划提供方案。 这些发现还将为世界各地面临着类似类型的威胁和挑战的三角洲地区提供新的见解。 该项目得到了耦合自然和人类系统（CNH）计划的NSF动力学支持。

项目成果

A Geochemical Record of Late‐Holocene Hurricane Events From the Florida Everglades

• DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026857
• 发表时间: 2020-08
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Q. Yao;Kam‐biu Liu;Erika Rodrigues;T. Bianchette;A. A. Aragón-Moreno-A.;Zhenqing Zhang