CNH: Collaborative Research: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban Growth

CNH：合作研究：水循环与城市增长模式的动态耦合

• 批准号: 0709659
• 负责人: Claire Welty
• 金额: $ 85.36万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland Baltimore County
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2013-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0709659&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Dynamic; Coupling

The objective of this project is to link an urban growth model (SLEUTH) with a fully-coupled, physically-based three-dimensional hydrologic model (PARFLOW-CLM) to evaluate the effects of growth on water availability and limits to water supply using the Baltimore metropolitan region as a case study. The urban growth modeling will consist of a rigorous and fully validated implementation of the SLEUTH model coupled with a spatial statistical model of urban suitability and demographic data. In addition to providing a platform where both landscape characteristics and socio-economic variables can be integrated, this model will provide the opportunity to test and quantify the influence of each of these variables in either attracting or resisting development. Because the model will have a better representation of the landscape in terms of where development is more or less likely to occur, the model''s performance will be improved. Implementation of the hydrologic component of the project will include intensive field studies on a single highly urbanized watershed, which is the primary study watershed of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER research site. Combining a physically-based regional hydrologic model with an urban growth model will allow an assessment of the coupled feedbacks between growth projections (and the socio-economic variables that affect growth) and surface and subsurface water resources. Changes in stream baseflow and groundwater availability may in turn influence regulatory decisions on development permits in exurban areas.This project will link smaller-scale, process-based studies to a larger scale regional understanding of how the water cycle operates. This project will also advance several long-term goals for urban land cover modeling. Most significantly will be an opportunity to develop the links between urbanization and hydrologic systems in a spatially explicit context. The importance of water resource management to serve the public interest is a topic of growing importance globally because of stresses induced by patterns of growth, but the tools and data currently available to support decision-making are inadequate. This research will help to close that gap. This effort is also of interest to the Chesapeake Bay program, in its work to address questions about critical thresholds and sustainability.Interaction with state and local agency personnel will be carried out in order to incorporate their questions and policy concerns into modeling scenarios and to discuss the implications of the findings from this project.

该项目的目的是将城市增长模型（Sleuth）与完全耦合的，基于物理的三维水文模型（PARFLOW-CLM）联系起来，以评估使用巴尔的摩大都会地区作为一个案例研究的供水对水的影响和限制水供应的影响。城市增长建模将包括侦探模型的严格且充分验证的实现，并结合城市适用性和人口统计数据的空间统计模型。除了提供一个可以集成景观特征和社会经济变量的平台之外，该模型还将为测试和量化这些变量中每个变量的影响在吸引或抵制开发方面的影响提供机会。由于该模型将在开发或多或少发生的可能性方面更好地表示景观，因此该模型的性能将得到改善。该项目的水文组成部分的实施将包括对单个高度城市化流域进行深入的现场研究，这是巴尔的摩生态系统研究网站的主要研究流域。 将基于物理的区域水文模型与城市增长模型相结合，将允许评估生长预测（以及影响增长的社会经济变量）之间的耦合反馈），表面和地下水资源。溪流基流量和地下水的可用性的变化反过来又可能影响外观地区开发许可证的监管决策。该项目将将基于过程的较小，基于过程的研究与对水周期运作方式的更大规模的区域理解联系起来。 该项目还将推进城市土地覆盖建模的几个长期目标。最重要的是，在空间上明确的环境下，将有机会建立城市化与水文系统之间的联系。水资源管理对公共利益的重要性是由于增长模式引起的压力而在全球范围内越来越重要的话题，但是目前可用于支持决策的工具和数据不足。这项研究将有助于缩小这一差距。在解决有关关键阈值和可持续性的问题的工作中，Chesapeake Bay计划的这一努力也引起了人们的关注。将与州和地方机构人员进行交流，以将他们的问题和政策关注纳入建模场景并讨论该项目的发现的含义。