CNH: Collaborative Research: Modeling the Dynamics of Harmful Algal Blooms, Human Communities, and Policy Choices Along the Florida Gulf Coast

CNH：合作研究：对佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸有害藻华、人类社区和政策选择的动态进行建模

• 批准号: 1009269
• 负责人: Gary Hitchcock
• 金额: $ 30.37万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-10-01 至 2016-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1009269&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Modeling; Dynamics

Project AbstractAround the world, harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the marine environment are an increasing threat to human health and coastal ecosystems. This research will examine the choices and effectiveness of policies for mitigating the economic and public health effects of blooms of the harmful alga, Karenia brevis, along Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast. The project team will develop a modeling framework comprising statistical models of the dynamics of nature and human demographics, environmental exposure-response models, cost-minimization models, and a policy-simulation model that connects these submodels. An Education Program will be implemented to evaluate education and outreach tools that have been designed to minimize exposure to risks. The research will focus on the following: (1) modeling the relationship between nutrient loadings and the frequency, spread, intensity, and duration of HABs in the eastern Gulf of Mexico; (2) clarifying the changing patterns of short- and long-term human population distributions along the Florida Gulf Coast; (3) specifying the connection between HABs as marine hazards (exposures) and human respiratory ailments (responses); (4) inputing the economic costs of illnesses associated with respiratory ailments; (5) demonstrating feasible ways of communicating risks to the public and implementing mitigation policies; (6) comparing the costs of implementing combinations of existing and prospective policies; and (7) characterizing the array of coupling phenomena (time lags, thresholds, feedback loops, surprises, etc.) that comprise the dynamic interactions between nature and humans in the HABs context. The project is expected to yield insights into a form of dynamic coupling between nature and humans that heretofore has not been studied in depth, one in which policy choices must be made about the relative usefulness of attempts to control either nature or human behavior, or both, in order to reduce harm.This research project will enhance our understanding of how the dynamic interactions between natural and human systems influence and inform society's choice of public policies for mitigating the economic and public health effects of marine harmful algal blooms (HABs). The coupled natural-human system of HABs and increasing coastal populations on the Florida Gulf Coast appear to exhibit many of the classic characteristics of dynamic coupled systems, such as feedbacks, thresholds, surprises, and legacy effects. A better understanding of these characteristics can potentially lead to public policies that are better organized, more informed, less costly, and more effective. The knowledge gained will inform researchers studying other coupled natural-human systems, thereby opening up other lines of research into coastal and aquatic regions affected by natural hazards around the world.

项目抽象的世界，海洋环境中的有害藻华（HAB）是对人类健康和沿海生态系统的日益威胁。 这项研究将研究政策的选择和有效性，以减轻有害藻类的盛开的经济和公共卫生影响，卡伦尼亚·布雷维斯（Karenia Brevis），沿佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸。 项目团队将开发一个建模框架，包括自然和人口统计学动态的统计模型，环境暴露响应模型，成本最小化模型以及连接这些子模型的策略模拟模型。 将实施一项教育计划，以评估旨在最大程度地降低风险的教育和外展工具。 该研究将重点介绍以下：（1）建模墨西哥东部海湾的养分负荷与HAB的频率，扩散，强度和持续时间之间的建模； （2）阐明佛罗里达墨西哥湾沿岸的短期和长期人口分布的变化模式； （3）指定HAB之间的联系为海洋危害（暴露）和人类呼吸疾病（反应）； （4）输入与呼吸系统疾病相关的疾病的经济成本； （5）证明可行的方式向公众传达风险并实施缓解政策； （6）比较实施现有政策和前瞻性政策组合的成本； （7）表征一系列耦合现象（时间滞后，阈值，反馈回路，惊喜等），这些现象构成了在HABS环境中自然与人之间的动态相互作用。 预计该项目将产生对迄今尚未深入研究的自然与人之间动态耦合形式的见识有害的藻华（HABS）。 佛罗里达墨西哥湾沿岸的HAB的天然人类系统和增加的沿海人口似乎表现出许多动态耦合系统的经典特征，例如反馈，阈值，惊喜和遗产效果。 对这些特征的更好理解可能会导致公共政策更好地组织，更加明智，成本更低，更有效。 获得的知识将为研究其他耦合天然人类系统的研究人员提供通知，从而为世界各地自然危害影响的沿海和水生区域开放了其他研究线。