Growth and Cycles

增长和周期

• 批准号: 0241350
• 负责人: Boyan Jovanovic
• 金额: $ 24.57万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-06-01 至 2006-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0241350&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Growth; Cycles

The goal of this project is to develop a model in which there is an incentive to adopt a new technology because it increases productivity, but the new technology may require a large adjustment in the level of human capital. The model will be used to explain volatility of growth, growth-rate disasters, counter cyclical human capital accumulations and other empirical observations about economic growth.Real Business Cycle research is a large and very useful literature on the relationship between business cycles, economic growth and technology shocks. But almost all this research assumes that the technology shocks are exogenous and studies how the economy responds to them. This project develops a model in which technology is chosen, total factor productivity depends on current technology and human capital, and human capital can be upgraded at a cost to better match future technology. In this model technology adoption is risky. The risk is one of possibly having the wrong skills and therefore of bearing large costs of retooling and there are additional risks. So choosing a better technology increases tomorrow's productivity directly, but increases the risk that resources will have to be spent to upgrade human capital to keep pace. If growth imposes risks, then it seems like we should observe a positive relation between the growth rate and its volatility. Yet the data show a negative relation between the two over time. This project develops a model that explains this, in that higher volatility leads to a greater mismatch between future technologies and skills and greater retooling costs. The model can be decentralized and extended so that it fits the distribution of growth rates of output, consumption, investment, stock prices, and interest rates observed in post-war U.S. data and elsewhere. Business cycles are partly an outcome of technology choices. This project studies how policy implications hinge on external effects in the use of technology and in the adjustment of human capital.

该项目的目的是开发一种模型，在这种模型中，有一种动机，因为它提高了生产率，但是新技术可能需要对人力资本水平进行大量调整。 该模型将用于解释增长，增长率灾难，反周期性人力资本积累以及其他关于经济增长的经验观察的波动性。真实的商业周期研究是一项关于业务周期，经济增长与技术冲击之间关系的大型且非常有用的文献。 但是，几乎所有这些研究都认为技术冲击是外源性的，并研究了经济如何对它们的反应。 该项目开发了一种选择技术的模型，总要素生产率取决于当前的技术和人力资本，并且可以升级人力资本，以更好地匹配未来的技术。 在此模型中，采用技术是有风险的。 风险可能是具有错误的技能，因此具有大量重新制作成本，并且还有其他风险。 因此，选择更好的技术可以直接提高明天的生产力，但增加了必须花费资源来升级人力资本以保持步伐的风险。 如果增长施加了风险，那么似乎我们应该观察到增长率与其波动性之间的正相关。 然而，随着时间的推移，数据显示了两者之间的负相关关系。 该项目开发了一个解释这一点的模型，因为更高的波动性导致未来技术和技能之间的不匹配以及更高的改造成本。 该模型可以分散并扩展，以便适合战后美国数据和其他地方观察到的产出，消费，投资，股票价格和利率的增长率的分布。 商业周期部分是技术选择的结果。 该项目研究了政策含义如何取决于技术使用和调整人力资本的外部影响。