The Electricity Revolution and the Stock Market, 1885-1928

电力革命和股票市场，1885-1928 年

• 批准号: 0079274
• 负责人: Boyan Jovanovic
• 金额: $ 26.54万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-07-15 至 2004-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0079274&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Electricity; Revolution; Stock; Market; 1885

This project compares the ongoing Information Technology (IT) revolution with the Electricity Revolution (1885 - 1930). It focuses on the stock market, and on the role that the small firm played. Along with the CRSP panel, investigators have collected data on individual firms in the NYSE going back to 1885. Using these and other data from the curbmarket and other exchanges, the study asks if the stock market valuation of incumbent firms and the intensity of takeover activity during electrification behaved as they have so far in the IT era, and if we can expect a repeat of the 1929 stock market crash.Preliminary results suggest some key differences between electricity and the computer:1) Computer use is spreading faster than electricity did. This may have been because the heavy industrial nature of early applications of electricity delayed the entry of new and smaller firms.2) The decline and poor performance of incumbents associated with electrification lasted longer than in the case of IT.3) The merger wave of 1899-1900 was less effective as a policing device thanthe hostile takeover wave of the early 1980's.These three differences probably arise because the capital market is now more efficient than it used to be, and because it makes the entry of small firms easier. And, these differences may be precisely why the current IT driven rise in the stock market may be sustainable, while the rise of the late 1920's was not. Finally, IT probably has a stronger skill-bias than factory electrification did. But as skilled workers were scarce in those days, the skill premium was as high in the early part of the twentieth century as it is today.

该项目将正在进行的信息技术（IT）革命与电力革命（1885-1930）进行了比较。 它专注于股票市场，以及小公司发挥的作用。与CRSP面板一起，调查人员收集了纽约证券交易所的个人公司的数据，可以追溯到1885年。使用这些和其他数据中的这些数据和其他数据，该研究询问，该研究询问股票市场的股票市场估值是否有现有公司的股票市场以及在电气化期间在电气化期间的收购活动的强度以及在某些情况下的电气化，如果我们可以在一定程度上差异，如果我们可以重复出现杂货市场，并且杂货的重复销量和杂货市场的重复。计算机：1）计算机使用速度比电力传播的速度快。这可能是因为早期应用的重型工业性质延迟了新公司的进入延迟。2）2）与电气化相关的现有企业的衰落和绩效持续时间比IT持续更长的持续时间。3）3）1899-1900的合并浪潮不如1980年代早期的敌人差异，因为它的特征及其更高，因为它的特征是，因为它的特征是，因为它的特征是更高的，因为它的特征是高度的，因为这是因为它的特征，因为这是因为它的特征，因为它的大都会有效，因为这是因为它的特征是更高的，因为它的大都会是更高的，因为它的效率是更高的。小公司更容易。而且，这些差异可能恰恰是为什么当前它驱动股票市场上升的原因可能是可持续的，而1920年代后期的增长却没有。最后，它可能比工厂电气化具有更强的技能偏见。但是，由于当时熟练的工人稀缺，在20世纪初期，技能溢价与今天一样高。