SBE-UKRI: Business Cycles, Uncertain Growth and the Distribution of Production

SBE-UKRI：商业周期、不确定增长和生产分配

• 批准号: 1949489
• 负责人: Julia Thomas
• 金额: $ 45万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1949489&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SBE; UKRI; Business; Cycles; Uncertain

AbstractThe decade since the Great Recession has seen a lack of new business creation and slow economic growth. This project explores the interplay between these two phenomena using a model economy with rich differences across businesses. The model economy reproduces the long-run size and age distribution of firms in the U.S. economy and thus gives rise to a firm life cycle. New businesses are typically small and grow over time, so startups become more important in the economy as they mature. As a result, the effect on the overall economy from a decrease in the number of startups grows with time. The initial loss of production and employment is small, but the absence of new firms implies a long-term cost that is far larger than the initial loss. The project explores forces that may explain a persistent lack of startups. The results of the project will help researchers and policymakers better understand both the causes underlying the past decade of slow growth and how long-term reductions in the number of firms contribute to the slow recovery. The project investigates the slow GDP and investment growth over the past decade, relative to trend, alongside the persistent reduction in firm entry. The research explores possible forces driving large, long-lived changes in new business formation using a quantitative model with endogenous entry and exit. The model economy includes a distribution of firms that differ along several dimensions including their age, productivity, capital and debt. Changes in this distribution propagate exogenous shocks. Moreover, the model allows for countercyclical risk premia and thus large changes in firm value. As a result, it has the potential to reproduce persistent reductions in entry similar to those in the data. In this setting, the project explores the effect of persistent shocks to total factor productivity growth, increases in the uncertainty of future growth and shocks to firms’ cost of borrowing. The model economy serves as a laboratory to evaluate the sources of the slow economic recovery through the lens of firm entry, and is used to study the effect of such shocks both on the aggregate economy and on the distribution of production across firms.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

摘要以来，十年以来，大萧条已经缺乏新的商业创造和缓慢的经济增长。该项目使用模型经济探索了这两种现象之间的相互作用，这些模型经济在企业之间存在巨大差异。模型经济重现了美国经济中公司的长期规模和年龄分布，从而导致了公司的生命周期。新业务通常很小，并且随着时间的流逝而增长，因此随着成熟的成熟，初创企业在经济中变得越来越重要。结果，随着时间的推移，初创企业数量减少对整体经济的影响。最初的生产和就业损失很小，但是没有新公司意味着长期成本远大于初始损失。该项目探索了可能解释持续缺乏初创企业的力量。该项目的结果将帮助研究人员和政策制定者更好地了解过去十年来缓慢增长的原因以及公司数量的长期减少有助于缓慢恢复的贡献。该项目调查了过去十年中的GDP和投资增长缓慢，相对于趋势，以及公司进入的持续减少。该研究探讨了使用内源性进入和退出的定量模型，探讨了推动新业务形成大规模变化的力量。模型经济包括在几个维度上有所不同的公司分布，包括其年龄，生产力，资本和恶魔。这种分布的变化传播了外源性冲击。此外，该模型允许反周期风险溢价，因此企业价值变化很大。结果，它有可能在与数据中类似的入口中复制持续减少的入口。在这种情况下，该项目探讨了持续冲击对总要素生产率增长的影响，未来增长的不确定性增加以及对公司借贷成本的冲击。该模型经济是通过公司进入镜头评估经济恢复缓慢恢复的来源的实验室，用于研究这种冲击对总经济的影响以及对跨公司的总体经济分配的影响。这项奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估基金会的知识分子功能和广泛的影响来评估NSF的法定任务，并被认为是珍贵的。