Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Rupture and Strong Ground Motion

地震破裂和强地震动的动态随机建模

• 批准号: 0106823
• 负责人: Gregory Beroza
• 金额: $ 6.07万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-08-15 至 2002-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0106823&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamic; Stochastic; Modeling; Earthquake; Rupture

Abstract for proposal EAR0106823 (PH #5x)Title: Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Rupture and Strong Ground Motion PI: Greg Beroza Stanford UniversityIn this study we will develop an earthquake source model that simultaneously satisfies: (1) a previously derived stochastic model of the distribution and variability of slip on the fault consistent with observations of past earthquakes and (2) a simple physical model of the earthquake source that characterizes dynamic rupture by the distribution of stress drop and fracture energy. The result will be a model for earthquakes that is consistent with both observations of the earthquake source and rupture dynamics. This will provide a complete description of the earthquake source that includes variability in the slip distribution, rupture velocity, rise time, and shape of the slip velocity function in a self-consistent way. We will use this stochastic-dynamic source model to predict the level and variability of strong ground motion for scenario earthquakes. The use of a stochastic source description and output that consists of a suite of possible ground motion time histories, will merge naturally with the probabilistic approach that is usually adopted for seismic hazard analysis.

提案的摘要EAR0106823（ph＃5X）标题：地震破裂和强大的地面运动的动态传播建模PI：Greg Beroza Stanford pi：Greg Beroza Stanford University在这项研究中，我们将同时满足地震源模型：（1）先前衍生的随机模型，该模型是在观察到的ATHEM模型和型号一致的范围，该模型的分布和可变的（2）的范围（2），该模型是ATEM型和可变性的（2）地球的分布（2）地球的变化（2）通过应力下降和断裂能的分布来表征动态破裂。 结果将是地震的模型，与地震源和破裂动力学的观察结果一致。 这将提供对地震来源的完整描述，该源包括滑动分布，破裂速度，上升时间和滑动速度功能的形状的变化，以一种自一致的方式。 我们将使用这种随机动态源模型来预测场景地震强地面运动的水平和可变性。 由一系列可能的地面运动时间历史组成的随机来源描述和输出的使用将与通常用于地震危害分析的概率方法自然合并。