Collaborative Research in Decision, Risk, and Management Science: Utility Theories with Joint Receipts and Reference Levels

决策、风险和管理科学的合作研究：具有联合收益和参考水平的效用理论

• 批准号: 9308959
• 负责人: R. Duncan Luce
• 金额: $ 14.99万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-09-01 至 1996-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9308959&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Decision; Risk; Management

9308959 Luce Almost forty years of experience with theories about rational decision making on the part of individuals confronting risk and uncertainty -- technically, subjective expected utility theories (SEU) -- has led to two firm conclusions. One, stressed primarily by psychologists, is that this class of models, while overall fairly descriptive, fails to describe certain crucial aspects of actual behavior in many experimental and real world situations. The other, stressed primarily by economists and decision analysts, is that the axioms of the SEU model are normatively very compelling and the model has proved useful in numerous applied situations. Recognizing both the descriptive failure and normative usefulness of the classical model, the PIs have explored the common ground held by both the experimentalists and the applied decision analysts, attempted to discover exactly where the two part company, and sought a prescriptive theory that satisfies both experimental concerns and applied expectations. Like SEU this new theory -- technically rank- and sign-dependent utility (RSDU) theory -- is based (axiomatically) on fairly simple, quite compelling, underlying behavioral principles, and also like SEU, it results in a numerical representation as a weighted average, but unlike SEU the weights are not probabilities and their values depend not only on the underlying chance event but on whether the associated outcome is a gain or a loss. Fundamental to the theory is the differential treatment of an event depending on whether it is associated to a gain or a loss relative to a status quo and the incorporation of the concept of joint receipt -- of getting two or more things at the same time -- that allows an explicit, simple characterization of the fundamental non-rationality of the theory. This project examines several theoretical, experimental, and applied issues that remain unresolved: On the theoretical side, while RSDU is a fairly good descriptive theory of choice behavior, it needs modification to accommodate the violations of its axioms which occur when judged certainty equivalents are used rather than choice procedures. On the empirical side, the project examines, among other things, Thaler's rule for the utility of the joint receipt of two or more things; the descriptive validity of the quasi-rational assumptions underlying RSDU; the construction of a reference level (local status quo) in terms of the choice set; and alternative combination rules for the aggregation of gains and losses around the status quo. Regarding applied issues, we are convinced that the status quo plays an important role in decision making and so it is highly desirable to develop prescriptive theories that depend explicitly on it. In addition, the project will investigate the limitations and potential pitfalls of sign dependent utility as a prescriptive theory. ***

9308959 Luce在面对风险和不确定性的个人（技术上，主观的预期公用事业理论（SEU））方面具有近40年的理论经验，导致了两个坚定的结论。 一种主要由心理学家强调的是，尽管总体上相当描述性，但在许多实验和现实世界中，这类模型虽然总体上相当描述性，但仍未描述实际行为的某些关键方面。 另一个主要是由经济学家和决策分析师强调的，是SEU模型的公理在规范上非常引人注目，并且该模型在众多应用情况下被证明是有用的。 PI认识到经典模型的描述性失败和规范性有用性，探索了实验者和应用决策分析师所持有的共同点，试图确切发现两部分公司的位置，并寻求一种满足实验性关注和应用期望的规定性理论。 像SEU一样，这种新理论（在技术上排名和签名依赖性效用（RSDU）理论）基于（公理上）基于相当简单的，相当引人注目的，潜在的，潜在的行为原则，并且也像SEU一样，它导致数值表示为加权平均水平，但与SEU相比，其价值不仅取决于概率，但不仅取决于损失的损失，但是否会导致损失或相关性。 该理论的基础是事件对事件的差异处理，具体取决于与现状相对于现状的收益还是损失以及联合收据概念的纳入 - 同时获得两个或多个事物 - 允许对理论的基本非合理性的明确，简单地表征。 该项目研究了尚未解决的几个理论，实验和应用问题：在理论方面，RSDU是一种相当良好的选择行为描述理论，它需要修改以适应其公理的违规行为，而当判断的确定性等效物被使用而不是选择程序而不是选择程序。 在经验方面，该项目探讨了Thaler对两份或更多事物的共同收到的效用的规则； RSDU背后的准理性假设的描述有效性；根据选择集的参考级别（本地状态）的构建；以及围绕现状的收益和损失汇总的替代组合规则。关于应用问题，我们坚信现状在决策中起着重要的作用，因此非常需要开发明确取决于它的规定理论。 此外，该项目将研究符号依赖效用的局限性和潜在陷阱作为规定的理论。 ***