一类主从结构水库调度问题的建模理论与求解方法研究

Multireservoir system operation becomes more complex and presents more obvious characteristics of hierarchical decision structure due to implementing unified water quantity operation principle in China with the requirement of total amount control, administration and responsibility by different levels. Currently, the rapid construction of huge reservoirs in series, water network development and water resources management at watershed scale enforce the complex and hierarchical characteristics of multi-reservoir operation problem. Those facts highlight the importance of proposing relevant theory and methods to describe the hierarchical decision process in reservoir operation problem, which will help people overcome the theoretical disadvantage on this problem in the past. In this study, one kind of inter-basin water transfer-supply project in China is taken as the main subject investigated to solve the water allocation problem at different time scale of 10-days, month and year. The operation alternatives of extra-large reservoir at flood season will also be researched. Based on the theory of bi-level programming method, a bi-level model with the hierarchical structure of one leader and multiple followers will be established for single reservoir or multi-reservoir system in the inter-basin water transfer-supply project. The purpose of this study is to search for an efficient solution method, explore the optimality conditions, and find the approximation algorithm and stability conditions for the bi-level model, which will be used to solve the multi-reservoir operation problem in the inter-basin water transfer-supply project. Generally, this study will illustrate the hierarchical structure of reservoir operation problem and fill the gap in the hierarchical decision theoretical field for reservoir operation, which will also present a new way for exploring the complex mechanisms of reservoir operation problem.

随着我国水库梯级化、流域化和水网化格局的逐步形成，以及总量控制、分级管理与分级负责的水量统一调度原则实施，水库调度呈现出因决策主体越来越多、决策主体间的领导与服从关系越来越明显的多极化与结构化决策特征，特别是一类主从结构水库调度问题变得越来越普遍。传统面向单决策主体的水库调度建模理论与方法难以满足目前水库调度多极化与结构化决策的需求，迫切需要新的面向于多决策主体水库调度问题的建模理论与方法。申请项目以我国特大型工程三峡水库为背景，采用二层规划理论，研究这类问题特征、性质、建模技术与求解算法，建立二层、复合二层、一主多从二层和多层四种类型的主从结构水库调度模型，提出多层多维条件下调度模型降层与降维的混合求解算法、合作与非合作博弈条件下一主多从结构调度模型的协商与博弈算法。项目的开展将揭示上下层调度目标之间的真实竞争关系，将填补水库调度主从决策理论与方法的空白。

水库运行管理单位不敢大胆直接应用水库群优化调度理论研究成果是调度理论界和运行管理单位的共识。项目通过4年的研究从调度管理体制角度揭示了“水库优化调度理论研究和生产实践之间的差距”产生的机理与机制，发现目前很多优化调度模型所提出的水库群优化调度方案通常会高估发电或者防洪效益，其根本原因是从建模上没有能够准确地反映水库调度下层决策主体有在上层决策主体允许范围内的自主决策权。.项目的主要研究进展包括四个方面：①提出了求解下层最优解不唯一二层规划问题的三步求解算法；②提出了基于整体满意度的不适定型二层规划问题的求解策略；③建立基于主从结构的丹江口水库提前蓄水的二层规划模型；④三峡水库主从结构调度模型构建与防洪发电协同竞争机制性质分析。项目进行了三峡水库主从结构调度模型的构建和防洪与发电协同竞争机制性质分析，利用三峡水库1882~2012年共131年实测径流资料求得了模型上下两层的最优解，给出了对应的防洪优化调度规则和蓄水优化调度规则。根据考虑调度体制的优化调度方式，在防洪方面使得补偿枝城流量超过35000m³/s、42000m³/s、45000m³/s和456700m³/s的天数分别由370、181、12和2天降到了45、4、3和0天，加大了对中小洪水的调控力度，缩短了洪水历时；在蓄水方面使蓄水期末平均蓄水位由172.03m提高到了174.59m，同时增加了发电量，减少了弃水量，减轻了对下游水文情势的改变程度。

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