流域风光水智能互补的全生命周期设计、运行及维护研究

Wind power and solar power have the shortcomings of randomness, volatility, and intermittence. Joint operation of wind power, solar power, and hydropower is an effective measure to promote the integration of large-scale renewable energy sources, and will have the significance in improving the river basin’s resource use efficiency. This project is conducted to systematically study three key issues pertaining to short-term operation, mid- and long-term operations, and operation and maintenance of the wind-solar-hydro hybrid energy system. First, we construct short term scheduling models under multiple uncertainties of the resources, develop efficient solution approaches that couple swarm intelligence and dynamic programming, and assess possible energy losses of the wind, solar, and hydro. Second, we identify the type and parameters of the adaptive operating rule under changing environment by coordinating multiple objectives of flood control, power generation, water supply, and integration of the renewables. Third, we determine the optimal size as well as the phased implementation strategies of the hybrid energy system by investigating facilities’ failure rate and by combining operation and maintenance plans. By coupling different research issues together (i.e., integration of sizing planning and operation, integration of long- and short-term operations, integration of operation and maintenance), synergistic mechanisms of the hybrid energy system covering multiple levels and multiple time scales are revealed. The research findings can provide scientific guidance for the lifecycle operation and management of the wind-solar-hydro hybrid energy system in the Yalong River basin.

风电和光电存在随机性、波动性和间歇性等弊端，风光水多能互补对于促进大规模风电和光电的消纳，提升资源利用率，意义重大。项目系统开展短期、中长期、规划设计与维护三方面的研究：①构建耦合风光水多重不确定性的短期调度模型，研发嵌套智能优化与动态规划的高效求解算法，揭示弃风、弃光、弃水的驱动机理；②协同流域防洪、发电、供水、新能源消纳等多个目标，辨识适应变化环境的中长期调度规则型式及参数；③挖掘风光水电站设备的故障演化规律，联合长中短期调度运行及检修维护方式，确定风光水电站的装机容量及分期实施策略。项目秉承装机容量规划与运行管理调度一体化、中长期与短期调度一体化、运行调度与检修维护一体化的系统分析理念，揭示风光水智能互补系统多层级、多尺度的协同机理，为雅砻江风光水多能互补示范基地的全生命周期运行与管理提供科学依据。

水风光多能互补系统能有效提高电、光电消纳，促进“双碳”目标实现。项目针对大规模水风光多能互补电站的功率预报、调度运行以及容量规划问题，从实时、短期、中长期以及全生命周期等多时间尺度，提出适用于水风光互补的成套技术和系统解决方案。主要内容包括：水风光互补系统功率联合预报研究；水风光互补系统短期经济运行；水风光互补系统中长期联合优化调度；基于能源互补性的指标及最优风光配置。主要研究成果如下：（1）考虑水风光间时空相关性特征，通过物理与数据双驱动的方法，构建了水风光互补系统功率联合预报模型，显著提高了不同类型电站、不同季节水风光互补系统功率预报的精度。（2）构建水风光互补系统短期优化调度模型，提出了一套多能互补系统风险评价指标体系，实现了弃电风险的精准辨识。（3）构建水风光互补系统多目标鲁棒优化调度模型，识别了中期柔性调度区间，可提高调度人员应对突发事件的能力；采用了方差分析方法识别中长期调度主控因子，识别了预报不确定性对调度决策的影响。（4）推导了基于能源资源互补的最优风光装机规模评估函数，开展了基于成本效益模型的多能互补系统水电站装机容量扩增规划研究。研究成果为雅砻江水风光多能互补示范基地的全生命周期运行与管理提供了技术支撑。.发表学术论文60篇，其中SCI45篇，包括一区论文29篇，影响因子10以上论文13篇，高被引论文2篇，总被引次数515次。3人入选国家级人才项目，其中1人入选“国家杰出青年科学基金”，1人入选“国家优秀青年科学基金（海外）” ，1人入选“博士后创新人才支持计划”。研究成果“变化环境下梯级水库调度运行风险辨识及适应性调控关键技术”获湖北省科技进步一等奖。研究成果被Nature Sustainability、Nature Communications引用。项目组成员受Nature Sustainability期刊编辑邀请，撰写百科全书中的水风光互补词条， 同时受邀共同撰写Elsevier学术专著《Complementarity of Variable Renewable Energy Sources》。

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