Climate change consequences for an Arctic apex predator: polar bears as ecological indicators

气候变化对北极顶级捕食者的影响：北极熊作为生态指标

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-04270
• 负责人: Derocher, Andrew
• 金额: $ 2.91万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=737522
• 关键词: Climate; change; consequences; Arctic; apex

Ice-covered Arctic marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid ecological change as the climate warms. The effects are notable in sea ice characteristics, primary productivity, and ecosystem structure that affect polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which are a sea ice obligate species. The main working hypothesis of this proposal is that changes in the ecology and biomarkers of polar bears are associated with shifts in ecosystem structure and phenology caused by warming induced alteration of sea ice habitat. The objectives are to develop new monitoring metrics, document the consequences of climate change on polar bears, predict future changes, and examine the ecological interactions of polar bears with prey and scavengers. Objectives include identification of the mechanisms associated with polar bear population change over time to predict the effects of global warming. Long-term sampling in the key research populations (i.e., Beaufort Sea, Western Hudson Bay) allows investigation of the spatial dynamics, habitat use, and population dynamics in relation to changing environmental conditions. Over the next five years, my research group will examine: the spatial ecology and habitat use of polar bears using remote sensing to assess habitat use relationships with life history parameters, develop interdisciplinary means of assessing life history events and stress from microanalysis of tissues, use integrated life history and energetics modelling to explore the future status of polar bears, and examine the predator-prey dynamics of polar bears and the role of the bears as a keystone predator. Methods include: satellite telemetry, remote sensing, biomarkers, ecosystem dynamics, mathematical modelling, and remote cameras. The focus of the project is to integrate methods to obtain greater insight than possible from a single technique. Partnerships with Environment and Climate Change Canada and Fisheries and Oceans increase efficiency and samples sizes. Species responses to global warming are of fundamental interest to ecologists and managers yet the mechanisms of change and predictions for such changes are poorly understood. A mechanistic understanding of the processes that result in both individual and population response is necessary for predicting future conditions for a species. Integration of methods will provide novel insights. As a flagship species of climate change, polar bears have great local, national, and international interest.

随着气候变暖，冰覆盖的北极海洋生态系统正在经历快速的生态变化。这些影响在影响北极熊（Ursus Maritimus）的海冰特征，初级生产力和生态系统结构中值得注意的，这些结构是海冰强制性物种。该提议的主要工作假设是，生态学的变化和北极熊的生物标志物与生态系统结构的转移和物候变化有关，这是由于变暖诱导的海冰栖息地改变而引起的。这些目标是开发新的监测指标，记录气候变化对北极熊的后果，预测未来的变化，并检查北极熊与猎物和清道夫的生态相互作用。目标包括鉴定随着时间的推移，与北极熊种群变化相关的机制，以预测全球变暖的影响。关键研究人群（即西哈德逊湾的Beaufort Sea）中的长期抽样允许研究与不断变化的环境条件有关的空间动态，栖息地使用和种群动态。 Over the next five years, my research group will examine: the spatial ecology and habitat use of polar bears using remote sensing to assess habitat use relationships with life history parameters, develop interdisciplinary means of assessing life history events and stress from microanalysis of tissues, use integrated life history and energetics modelling to explore the future status of polar bears, and examine the predator-prey dynamics of polar bears and the role of the bears as a keystone predator.方法包括：卫星遥测，遥感，生物标志物，生态系统动力学，数学建模和远程相机。该项目的重点是整合方法以获得比单个技术更多的洞察力。与环境和气候变化的合作伙伴关系加拿大，渔业和海洋提高了效率和样品的大小。物种对全球变暖的反应是生态学家和经理的基本兴趣，但对这种变化的变化和预测的机制知之甚少。对导致个体和人口反应的过程的机械理解对于预测物种的未来条件是必要的。方法的集成将提供新颖的见解。作为气候变化的旗舰物种，北极熊具有巨大的本地，国家和国际兴趣。