Ecological forecasting for boreal conservation: fire, owls and woodpeckers

北方保护的生态预测：火、猫头鹰和啄木鸟

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-07192
• 负责人: Cumming, Steven
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Université Laval
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=718628
• 关键词: Ecological; forecasting; boreal; conservation; fire

The boreal biome is a vast wilderness, considered one of the last remaining frontier ecosystems on the planet. The footprint of European colonisation remains relatively light, invasive species are few, predator-prey relationships are substantially intact, and there is relatively little control over natural disturbances. Industrial impacts have been limited to the south but are expanding northwards, and the indirect impacts of anthropogenic climate change have already reached critical levels in some areas. The phenomena of “polar amplification” is resulting in warming rates three times higher than the global average, with possibly enormous and far-reaching consequences that we can not yet foresee in detail enough to plan ahead. The art and science of looking into the future in order to make such plans is known as “ecological forecasting”. As I approach the matter, it involves the synthesis of statistical data analysis and computer simulation. This proposal builds on a large body of work to develop the data and methods to enable forecasting tools. It addresses two specific problem areas: wildfire, and biodiversity. We know that climate warming will tend to increase the amount of fire in many parts of the boreal forest. This could in turn cause or facilitate large changes in the nature of forest, with big effects on the forest industry and the humans and other animals who live there. However, the tools available to predict these changes need some improving: they don't yet account for important interactions between fire and vegetation that could partially or largely mitigate the effects of warming, as these are inferred from correlations between recent fire activity and annual fire weather conditions. Biodiversity refers to the entirety of life on earth, but our ability to forecast biodiversity responses to changes in boreal systems is limited to only a very few species, such as trees, songbirds, ducks and caribou. In this proposal, I will expand on my past work on songbirds and ducks to develop new predictive models for species of boreal-breeding owls and woodpeckers. To do this, I will use some extensive but long-neglected data sets that citizen scientists have been collecting over the last 30 years.

北方生物群岛是一个广阔的荒野，被认为是地球上剩下的剩余边界生态系统之一。欧洲殖民化的足迹保持相对较轻，入侵物种很少，捕食者 - 捕食关系基本完整，对自然灾害的控制相对较少。工业影响仅限于南部，但正在向北扩展，人为气候变化的间接影响已经在某些地区达到了关键水平。 “极地扩增”的现象导致变暖率是全球平均水平的三倍，可能会增强和深远的后果，我们尚无法详细地预见到足以提前计划。为了制定这样的计划，研究未来的艺术和科学被称为“生态预测”。当我处理此问题时，它涉及统计数据分析和计算机模拟的综合。该建议建立在大量工作的基础上，以开发数据和方法以实现预测工具。它解决了两个特定的问题领域：野火和生物多样性。 我们知道，攀爬变暖会倾向于增加北方森林许多地方的火力。反过来，这可能导致或促进森林本质的大规模变化，对森林工业以及居住在那里的人类和其他动物产生巨大影响。但是，可用于预测这些变化的工具需要一些改进：它们尚未解释火与植被之间可能部分或很大程度上减轻变暖影响的重要相互作用，因为这些工具是由于最近的火灾活动与年度火灾天气条件之间的相关性所推断的。 生物多样性是指地球上的整个生命，但是我们预测生物多样性对北方系统变化的反应的能力仅限于极少数物种，例如树木，歌手，鸭子和驯鹿。在此提案中，我将扩展我过去在歌手和鸭子上的工作，以开发北方育种猫头鹰和啄木鸟物种的新预测模型。为此，我将使用一些公民科学家在过去30年中收集的广泛但长期以来的数据集。