Scientific foundations for boreal conservation

北方保护的科学基础

基本信息

批准号：
RGPIN-2015-04659
负责人：
Cumming, Steven
金额：
$ 1.89万
依托单位：
Université Laval
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=613093
关键词：
Scientific foundations boreal conservation

项目摘要

I address three challenges for conservation planning and sustainable management of Canada’s boreal forests: predicting future fire regimes, predicting the future state of the forest, and developing computerized tools, or simulation models, to make these predictions over large areas and time spans of one or two centuries. Protected areas network designs take account of our understanding of fire regime, that is, of statistical descriptions of the number, size, and other characteristics of the fires typical of a given area. Forecasts into a future where climate and forest structure may be different than they are today is difficult, because our historical information in incomplete. In many parts of Canada, up until very recently, most small fires were not detected. This “size-biased sampling” can lead to seriously incorrect models of the effects of climate and vegetation on the outcomes of interest. Similarly, fire suppression effects may also bias our models, while at the same time changing the forest in important ways. Statistical methods can account for all these factors simultaneously, leading to unbiased models that can make reliable forecasts. Models of forest dynamics often use classified satellite data to describe the initial state of the forest, as being old or young, deciduous or coniferous. Obviously, the same location does not stay in the same state forever. Forests change over time through “succession” and regeneration, for example after a fire. These processes can be summarised as “state transition rules” that can be simulated by computer; unfortunately, we do not have a very clear understanding of what the rules are, and to date have relied more on expert opinion than on quantitative analysis to set parameters for computer models. It is now possible to do better, because we can now build reasonably long time series of satellite imagery for all of Canada, e.g. for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. That is a long enough period so that it should be possible to estimate and model transition probabilities by careful comparison of the three maps. This would enable more reliable projections of future forest conditions as management and fire continue to unfold across the boreal. Doing so forms the second leg of this proposal. The third part of this proposal involves synthesising the results of the previous two parts with the results of substantial external efforts in modelling forest songbirds, waterfowl and caribou abundances, and in protected areas planning. This synthesis will take place by continuing the development of some established modelling tools; the objective is to project how climate, forest management and conservation activities will affect the future state of the boreal forest and its wildlife into the 22nd century. Tools like this will enable us to manage with the future in mind and to achieve, as far as possible, the outcomes preferred by Canadians.

我解决了加拿大北方森林的保护计划和可持续管理的三个挑战：预测未来的火灾制度，预测森林的未来状态，开发计算机工具或模拟模型，以对一个或两个世纪的大面积和时间跨度做出这些预测。保护区网络设计考虑了我们对火灾制度的理解，即对给定区域典型的火灾的数量，大小和其他特征的统计描述。预测气候和森林结构可能与今天不同的未来很困难，因为我们的历史信息不完整。在加拿大的许多地方，直到最近才发现大多数小火。这种“大小偏见的抽样”可能会导致严重的气候和植被对感兴趣结果的影响的模型。同样，抑制灭火效应也可能偏向我们的模型，同时以重要的方式改变森林。统计方法可以简单地解释所有这些因素，从而导致无偏的模型可以使森林变成可靠的森林。森林动力学模型通常使用机密的卫星数据来描述森林的初始状态，是年龄较大的，是决定性的或决定性的。显然，同一位置不会永远保持在同一状态。森林随着时间的流逝而通过“继承”和再生发生变化，例如在大火之后。这些过程可以总结为可以通过计算机模拟的“状态过渡规则”。不幸的是，我们对规则是什么，我们还没有非常清楚的了解，迄今为止，更多的是专家意见，而不是定量分析来为计算机模型设置参数。现在可以做得更好，因为我们现在可以为整个加拿大建立相当长的卫星图像系列，例如在1990年，2000年和2010年的年份中，这是一个足够长的时期，因此应该通过仔细比较三个地图来估计和模型过渡的可能性。随着整个北方地区的管理和火灾继续展开，这将使未来森林状况的更可靠的预测。这样做构成了该提议的第二回合。该提案的第三部分涉及综合前两个部分的结果，其结果是对森林鸣禽，水禽和驯鹿抽象进行建模的大量外部努力，以及在计划的保护区计划中。这种综合将通过继续开发一些已建立的建模工具而进行。目的是投射气候，森林管理和保护活动将如何影响到22世纪的北方森林及其野生动植物的未来状态。这样的工具将使我们能够牢记未来，并尽可能地实现加拿大人偏爱的结果。