Design, measurement and modelling in spatio-temporal analysis

时空分析中的设计、测量和建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-03776
• 负责人: Zidek, James
• 金额: $ 3.35万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=689244
• 关键词: Design; measurement; modelling; spatio; temporal

The burgeoning World population, newly predicted under present conditions to continue growing to as much as 15billion by the year 2100, is leading to increasing concerns about elevated levels of environment risk. More incidents e.g. high temperature episodes and the increased consumption of fossil fuels e.g. coal are expected. This dark future portends an increased need to effectively monitor environmental processes over space and time along with accurate methods for predicting these processes where they cannot be monitored in space and in the future, to support the management and mitigation of these risks through effective policy and regulation. Statisticians have a major role to play in this future, particularly in quantifying the uncertainties that abound.******The proposed research will continue the applicant's long-term research program on the optimum design of spatio temporal process monitoring networks and the use of the resulting data for modelling these processes for spatial prediction and future values. In particular, since existing network stations tend to be sited at preferentially selected geographical locations, we will continue seeking methods to reduce errors in statistical estimates induced by locating stations in that way. The research will also explore a promising objective method for siting them, one that insures they are well distributed over space. ******The remainder of the research concerns the use of data from these networks, possibly with adjustments for the effects of preferential siting, to create good spatio temporal models. We will continue current research and seek models for temperature fields that extend their geographical domains of applicability current work has focused the Pacific Northwest region of North America, beyond what has been considered to date. The results of this work will be used in the development of a new method for short term forecasting this will combine an ensemble of computer models with temperature data, all in the direction of mitigating the adverse health effects of high temperatures. We will also seek to improve the efficiency of current temperature monitoring networks.******But climate change is affecting not just the human species. Other research will concern marine mammals since their numbers in some regions are being depleted for reasons not yet understood. Now the research will continue work already begun on modelling the paths of fur seals between GPS sitings to better estimate their energy consumption (thus indicating how much food they need) as well as learn about the habitats they seek. The effect of climate change on these habitats will be the ultimate goal of the research on the impacts of increasing human populations and their impacts on the climate.*** **

在当前条件下，新近预测的新兴起的世界人口将继续增长到2100年的150亿多达150亿美元，这导致人们对环境风险水平升高的担忧日益增加。 更多事件，例如高温发作和化石燃料的消耗量增加，例如预计煤炭。这个黑暗的未来预示着增加的需求，需要在空间和时间上有效监视环境过程，以及预测这些过程无法在太空和将来无法监控的这些过程的准确方法，以通过有效的政策和监管来支持管理和缓解这些风险。 统计学家在这一未来中有重要的作用，尤其是在量化范围内的不确定性方面。用于对这些过程进行建模空间预测和未来值的结果数据。特别是，由于现有的网站往往位于优先选择的地理位置，因此我们将继续寻求方法来减少通过以这种方式定位站点引起的统计估计的错误。 该研究还将探索一种有希望的客观方法，可以确保它们在太空中分布良好。 ******的其余研究涉及从这些网络中使用数据的使用，可能会对优先选址的效果进行调整，以创建良好的时空时间模型。我们将继续进行当前的研究并寻求温度领域的模型，以扩展其适用性的地理领域，而当前工作则集中在北美西北地区的西北地区，这是迄今为止所考虑的。 这项工作的结果将用于开发一种新方法以进行短期预测，这将结合计算机模型与温度数据的合奏，这均在减轻高温的不良健康效应方向上。 我们还将寻求提高当前温度监测网络的效率。******，但气候变化不仅影响人类。其他研究将涉及海洋哺乳动物，因为由于尚未理解的原因，它们在某些地区的数量正在耗尽。现在，该研究将继续进行工作，已经开始建模GPS位置之间的皮草密封道路，以更好地估计其能耗（从而表明他们需要多少食物），并了解他们所寻求的栖息地。气候变化对这些栖息地的影响将是研究对增加人口及其对气候的影响的影响的最终目标。*** **