Design, measurement and modelling in spatio-temporal analysis

时空分析中的设计、测量和建模

基本信息

批准号：
RGPIN-2016-03776
负责人：
Zidek, James
金额：
$ 3.35万
依托单位：
University of British Columbia
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=669918
关键词：
Design measurement modelling spatio temporal

项目摘要

The burgeoning World population, newly predicted under present conditions to continue growing to as much as 15billion by the year 2100, is leading to increasing concerns about elevated levels of environment risk. More incidents e.g. high temperature episodes and the increased consumption of fossil fuels e.g. coal are expected. This dark future portends an increased need to effectively monitor environmental processes over space and time along with accurate methods for predicting these processes where they cannot be monitored in space and in the future, to support the management and mitigation of these risks through effective policy and regulation. Statisticians have a major role to play in this future, particularly in quantifying the uncertainties that abound.******The proposed research will continue the applicant's long-term research program on the optimum design of spatio – temporal process monitoring networks and the use of the resulting data for modelling these processes for spatial prediction and future values. In particular, since existing network stations tend to be sited at preferentially selected geographical locations, we will continue seeking methods to reduce errors in statistical estimates induced by locating stations in that way. The research will also explore a promising objective method for siting them, one that insures they are well distributed over space. ******The remainder of the research concerns the use of data from these networks, possibly with adjustments for the effects of preferential siting, to create good spatio – temporal models. We will continue current research and seek models for temperature fields that extend their geographical domains of applicability – current work has focused the Pacific Northwest region of North America, beyond what has been considered to date. The results of this work will be used in the development of a new method for short term forecasting – this will combine an ensemble of computer models with temperature data, all in the direction of mitigating the adverse health effects of high temperatures. We will also seek to improve the efficiency of current temperature monitoring networks.******But climate change is affecting not just the human species. Other research will concern marine mammals since their numbers in some regions are being depleted for reasons not yet understood. Now the research will continue work already begun on modelling the paths of fur seals between GPS sitings to better estimate their energy consumption (thus indicating how much food they need) as well as learn about the habitats they seek. The effect of climate change on these habitats will be the ultimate goal of the research on the impacts of increasing human populations and their impacts on the climate.*** **

人们期望在空间和将来无法监控的过程中，人们对环境风险的提升。尤其是在量化**********的不确定性时，尤其是在量化的不确定性方面。对空间预测和未来值的过程进行建模。该研究涉及从网络中使用数据的使用，并通过调整偏好的效果，以创建良好的时空模型。北部A的太平洋西北地区，超出了迄今为止使用的结果。高温Workady开始了GPS的路径估计其Ergy的消费（因此表明他们需要多少食物），并了解他们寻求的栖息地。影响TE。