Design, measurement and modelling in spatio-temporal analysis

时空分析中的设计、测量和建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-03776
• 负责人: Zidek, James
• 金额: $ 3.35万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=614621
• 关键词: Design; measurement; modelling; spatio; temporal

The burgeoning World population, newly predicted under present conditions to continue growing to as much as 15billion by the year 2100, is leading to increasing concerns about elevated levels of environment risk. More incidents e.g. high temperature episodes and the increased consumption of fossil fuels e.g. coal are expected. This dark future portends an increased need to effectively monitor environmental processes over space and time along with accurate methods for predicting these processes where they cannot be monitored in space and in the future, to support the management and mitigation of these risks through effective policy and regulation. Statisticians have a major role to play in this future, particularly in quantifying the uncertainties that abound. The proposed research will continue the applicant’s long-term research program on the optimum design of spatio - temporal process monitoring networks and the use of the resulting data for modelling these processes for spatial prediction and future values. In particular, since existing network stations tend to be sited at preferentially selected geographical locations, we will continue seeking methods to reduce errors in statistical estimates induced by locating stations in that way. The research will also explore a promising objective method for siting them, one that insures they are well distributed over space. The remainder of the research concerns the use of data from these networks, possibly with adjustments for the effects of preferential siting, to create good spatio - temporal models. We will continue current research and seek models for temperature fields that extend their geographical domains of applicability - current work has focused the Pacific Northwest region of North America, beyond what has been considered to date. The results of this work will be used in the development of a new method for short term forecasting - this will combine an ensemble of computer models with temperature data, all in the direction of mitigating the adverse health effects of high temperatures. We will also seek to improve the efficiency of current temperature monitoring networks. But climate change is affecting not just the human species. Other research will concern marine mammals since their numbers in some regions are being depleted for reasons not yet understood. Now the research will continue work already begun on modelling the paths of fur seals between GPS sitings to better estimate their energy consumption (thus indicating how much food they need) as well as learn about the habitats they seek. The effect of climate change on these habitats will be the ultimate goal of the research on the impacts of increasing human populations and their impacts on the climate.

在当前条件下，新近预测的新兴世界人口将继续增长到2100年，这使人们对环境风险水平升高引起了人们的关注。更多事件，例如高温发作和化石燃料的消耗量增加，例如预计煤炭。这个黑暗的未来预示着有效地监测环境过程在时间和时间上的需求增加，以及预测这些过程无法在太空和将来无法监控的这些过程的准确方法，以通过有效的政策和监管来支持管理和缓解这些风险。统计学家在这一未来中扮演着重要的角色，尤其是在量化比比皆是的不确定性方面。 拟议的研究将继续申请人关于空间最佳设计的长期研究计划 - 临时过程监视网络以及所得数据的使用将这些过程建模为空间预测和未来值。特别是，由于现有的网站往往位于优先选择的地理位置，因此我们将继续寻求方法来减少通过以这种方式定位站点引起的统计估计的错误。该研究还将探索一种有望的客观方法，可以确保它们在太空中分布良好。 其余的研究涉及从这些网络中使用数据的使用，可以通过调整优先选址的影响，以创建良好的空间 - 临时模型。我们将继续进行当前的研究并寻求用于扩展其适用性地理领域的温度领域的模型 - 当前的工作集中在北美的西北太平洋地区，而不是迄今为止所考虑的。这项工作的结果将用于为短期预测的新方法开发 - 这将将计算机模型的合奏与温度数据结合在一起，所有这些都朝着缓解高温的不良健康效应的方向。我们还将寻求提高当前温度监测网络的效率。 但是气候变化不仅影响着人类。其他研究将涉及海洋哺乳动物，因为由于尚未理解的原因，它们在某些地区的数量正在耗尽。现在，该研究将继续开始工作，开始对GPS站点之间的皮草密封道路进行建模，以更好地估计其能耗（表明他们需要多少食物），并了解他们所寻求的栖息地。气候变化对这些栖息地的影响将是研究对增加人口及其对气候的影响的影响的最终目标。