Water availability assessment in the Nelson River basin using a coupled water-isotope approach

使用水-同位素耦合方法评估尼尔森河流域的水资源可用性

• 批准号: 462584-2013
• 负责人: Stadnyk, Tricia
• 金额: $ 8.15万
• 依托单位: University of Manitoba
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=665785
• 关键词: Water; availability; assessment; Nelson; River

Watershed models capable of accurately simulating changes to the water cycle in northern Canadian watersheds are essential to correctly assess runoff dynamics and potential impacts to water supply under a changing climate. Perhaps the most challenging aspect becomes model calibration and parameterization that has traditionally relied on sparse hydrometric data networks. The effects of climate change and uncertainty in future water supply are magnified in northern latitudes and therefore are of particular concern to Manitoba Hydro; the Nelson River watershed represents ~75% of annual generation in a Province that is 98% reliant on hydropower. This project will provide the hydropower industry in Manitoba with the tools, methodology, and personnel to more accurately predict changes in the timing and quantity of flow in the lower Nelson River basin. Further development and utilization of an approach that couples hydrometric and isotopic data in an iso-hydrologic modelling system (isoWATFLOOD) is proposed to improve model calibration and reduce uncertainty in future flow simulations. Stable water isotopes are effective tracers since signals in river discharge are easily measured, and result in a well-defined systematic labelling of the water cycle. Over a five year period eleven highly-qualified personnel will be trained, with specialized training for hydrometric technicians as a result of this project. The outcome of improved hydrologic prediction of both short- and long-term changes in the flow regime will be improved flow prediction in the lower Nelson River that will be used for real-time and future studies to optimize system capacity, power generation, power trading, and power sales. Properly calibrated watershed models are an essential component to the design, planning, and construction of proposed future generating sites where estimates of extreme floods are required in the sizing of hydraulic structures to ensure safe passage of the inflow design flood. Research outcomes are intended to reduce Manitoba and Canada's vulnerability to climate change by minimizing potential socio-economic impacts resulting from changing water availability under future climates.

能够准确模拟加拿大北部流域水循环变化的分水岭模型对于正确评估气候变化的径流动态和潜在影响供水至关重要。也许最具挑战性的方面是传统上依赖稀疏水平数据网络的模型校准和参数化。在北纬度地区，气候变化和未来供水的不确定性的影响会放大，因此对曼尼托巴水域特别关注。尼尔森河流域占98％依赖水电的98％的年一代的75％。该项目将为曼尼托巴省的水力发电行业提供工具，方法论和人员，以更准确地预测下纳尔逊河流域的计时和流量的变化。提出了在ISO-Hydrologic建模系统（ISOWATFLOOD）中伴侣水文和同位素数据的进一步开发和利用，以改善模型校准并降低未来流量模拟的不确定性。稳定的水同位素是有效的示踪剂，因为很容易测量河流排放中的信号，并导致水周期定义明确的系统标记。在五年的时间里，将对11个高度合格的人员进行培训，并通过该项目的水文技术人员进行专门培训。在下部纳尔逊河中，将改善流动型流程制度的水文预测的结果将改善流量预测的结果，该预测将用于实时和未来研究，以优化系统容量，发电，电力交易和电力销售。经过正确校准的流域模型是设计，计划和构建所提出的未来生成站点的重要组成部分，在液压结构的尺寸中，需要对极端洪水进行估算，以确保流入设计洪水的安全通过。 研究成果旨在通过最大程度地减少未来气候下水的可用性而导致潜在的社会经济影响来减少曼尼托巴省和加拿大对气候变化的脆弱性。