Pan-Arctic System Modelling (PASM) for detection and early warning of climate change impacts

用于气候变化影响检测和预警的泛北极系统建模 (PASM)

• 批准号: RGPIN-2022-03286
• 负责人: Stadnyk, Tricia
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: University of Calgary
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=754829
• 关键词: Pan; Arctic; System; Modelling; PASM

The most recent IPCC working group report declared that observed climate changes are "unprecedented" and "intensifying" and the United Nations declared that tackling the scientific understanding of climate change as "one of the most pressing issues of our time". In the Canadian context, climate change impacts in the Arctic are explicitly linked with economic prosperity, resource security, and National sovereignty, including transportation routes and international trade via northern shipping routes and ice roads. Runoff generation and cumulative contributions of freshwater discharge into the Arctic basin are rapidly changing under warming high-latitude climates, but the impacts of these dynamic shifts in both the timing and volume of freshwater are relatively unknown. It is well established that increasing freshwater discharge to the Arctic basin is impacting the amount and seasonality of sea ice, which in turn influences thermohaline circulation. Examining the influence changing freshwater inputs have on the Arctic basin is crucial to the global understanding of climate change and Arctic ecosystems. Leveraging my expertise in continental scale, high latitude hydrologic modelling, this research proposes to develop critical linkages between climate, hydrologic and human-induced landscape changes that impact pan-Arctic discharge. By developing an integrated pan-arctic System Modelling (PASM) platform, dynamic climate-driven hydrologic scenarios will be integrated with the NEMO ocean model, providing continuous (in time and space) runoff, physical tracers of freshwater (i.e., temperature, isotope tracers), and river ice and velocity. Such a platform is crucial to the understanding of the cumulative effects of climate change on Arctic systems, and the subsequent impacts on ocean thermohaline circulation (i.e., the North Atlantic deep-water formation) affecting global climate. The Intergovernmetal Panel on Climate Change and Arctic council both recognize the Grand Challenge of an Arctic region at risk under a rapidly warming climate, destabilizing soils underpinning infrastructure and impacting transportation and access to the North.

最新的IPCC工作组报告宣布，观察到的气候变化是“前所未有的”和“加剧”，联合国宣布，将对气候变化的科学理解与“我们那个时代最紧迫的问题之一”相似。在加拿大的情况下，北极的气候变化影响与经济繁荣，资源安全和国家主权明确联系，包括通过北部运输路线和冰路通过运输路线和国际贸易。在高纬度气候下，淡水排放到北极盆地的径流产生和累积贡献正在迅速变化，但是这些动态变化在淡水的时机和体积中的影响相对尚不清楚。众所周知，北极盆地的淡水排放量增加正在影响海冰的数量和季节性，这反过来又影响了热盐循​​环。检查改变淡水投入对北极盆地的影响对于全球对气候变化和北极生态系统的理解至关重要。这项研究利用我在大陆规模，高纬度水文建模的专业知识，高纬度的水文建模时，旨在在气候，水文和人类引起的景观变化之间建立关键联系，从而影响泛北极排放。通过开发集成的泛北极系统建模（PASM）平台，动态气候驱动的水文场景将与Nemo Ocean模型集成在一起，从而提供连续的（时空）径流，淡水的物理示踪剂（即温度，同位素，同位素示踪剂）以及河流和河流和速度。这样的平台对于理解气候变化对北极系统的累积影响至关重要，以及随后对海洋热盐循环的影响（即北大西洋深水形成）影响了全球气候。气候变化和北极理事会的基准面板都认识到在迅速变暖的气候下，北极地区面临危险的巨大挑战，破坏了基础设施的基础的土壤，并影响了运输以及北部的通道。