Resiliency Framework for Seismic Risk Assessment and Management of Buildings

建筑物地震风险评估和管理的防灾框架

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05013
• 负责人: Tesfamariam, Solomon
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=611387
• 关键词: Resiliency; Framework; Seismic; Risk; Assessment

The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) estimation of earthquake induced damage to core public infrastructure (CPI) in western (British Columbia) and eastern (Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec City corridor) is in the order of $60-$75 billion. The IBC’s report further highlighted that with the incorporation of resiliency, the damage can significantly be reduced. Seismic resiliency of a system has been associated with reducing chances, absorbing and recovering quickly after a shock. CPI, including roads, bridges, transit, and water and wastewater systems, are essential to ensure health, safety, economic security and overall quality of life in Canada. The long term objective of this research program is to develop a resiliency framework for Canada’s CPI. The framework will incorporate the failure of each CPI and also dependencies and cascading effects. Furthermore, the framework will incorporate multiple shocks, e.g. mainshock-aftershock earthquakes. In this proposal, the resiliency framework is applied for different Canadian building types, with focus on reducing impact of an earthquake and improving the recovery by quantifying the downtown in the consequence of failure. To achieve this objective, the research goals are categorized into the following three themes: Theme A) Develop building vulnerability assessment and robustness index framework for existing buildings by accounting for different uncertainties and building irregularities (Projects A1 and A2). Based on the level of information available a building vulnerability assessment guidelines that incorporate model selection and analysis technique will be developed. Finally, a new Canadian Building Code Effectiveness Grading protocol will be developed and applied to over 600 Canadian cities (as provided in the building code). Theme B) Develop an integrated retrofit optimization and selection framework. This framework will enable the decision makers to carry out scenario analysis for different retrofit alternatives and select the desired retrofitting technique (projects B1, B2 and B3). The retrofit resource allocation and optimization will be undertaken at two different resolutions (city and building levels) and involve simulations for different hazard levels. In this research, a derivative-free approach that guarantee of optimality will be used. The challenge of decision making is further compounded due to the uncertainties associated with hazard assessment and knowledge of the decision making process for specific alternatives. Theme C) Develop a framework that will quantify both structural and non-structural failures within the risk assessment and management framework. This framework will account for the likelihood of failure through fault-tree and consequence of failure through event-tree analyses. This is denoted as a bow-tie diagram in the risk literature. Thus, the building vulnerability tool from Theme A and retrofitting assessment framework from Theme B will be integrated into this bow-tie diagram. Downtime will be quantified as one of the consequence of failure that addresses the recover quickly component of the resiliency framework (project C1). This research will lead to an advanced understanding of seismic risk assessment and significantly better management of civil infrastructure systems. The knowledge and understanding gained from this critical research will directly improve the risk assessment and management of existing buildings. This will have significant impact on Canadian society by improving the resiliency of our civil infrastructure systems.

加拿大保险局（IBC）估计地震诱发了对西部（不列颠哥伦比亚省）和东部（渥太华 - 摩托尔 - 皇马 - 皇马城市走廊）的核心公共基础设施（CPI）损害的损失，为750亿美元。 IBC的报告进一步强调，随着弹性的融合，可以大大降低损害。系统的地震弹性与减少机会相关，冲击后迅速吸收和恢复。 CPI，包括道路，桥梁，过境以及水和废水系统，对于确保加拿大的健康，安全，经济安全和整体生活质量至关重要。该研究计划的长期目标是为加拿大CPI制定弹性框架。该框架将结合每个CPI的故障以及依赖关系和级联效应。此外，该框架将包含多种冲击，例如主震 - 霍克地震。 在此提案中，弹性框架适用于加拿大不同的建筑类型，重点是减少地震的影响，并通过量化市区而在失败后通过量化市区来改善恢复。为了实现这一目标，研究目标分为以下三个主题： 主题a）通过考虑不同的不确定性和建立不规则性（项目A1和A2）来为现有建筑物开发建筑脆弱性评估和鲁棒性指数框架。根据可用的信息级别，将制定建筑漏洞评估指南，这些指南将开发纳入模型选择和分析技术的指南。最后，将开发一个新的加拿大建筑代码效率分级协议，并应用于600多个加拿大城市（如《建筑法典》中提供）。 主题b）开发集成的改装优化和选择框架。该框架将使决策者能够对不同的改造替代方案进行场景分析，并选择所需的改造技术（项目B1，B2和B3）。改造资源分配和优化将在两种不同的解决方案（城市和建筑物水平）上进行，并涉及不同危险水平的模拟。在这项研究中，将使用保证最佳性的无衍生方法。由于与危害评估以及对特定替代方案的决策过程有关的不确定性，决策的挑战进一步加剧了。 主题c）开发一个框架，该框架将在风险评估和管理框架内量化结构性和非结构性故障。该框架将解释通过故障树失败的可能性，以及通过事件树分析失败的结果。这在风险文献中表示为弓领带图。这是将主题A的建筑脆弱性工具和主题B的改造评估框架集成到此弓领带图中。停机时间将被量化为失败的结果之一，该结果解决了弹性框架的快速恢复组件（项目C1）。 这项研究将导致对地震风险评估的深入了解，并明显更好地管理民用基础设施系统。从这项关键研究中获得的知识和理解将直接改善现有建筑物的风险评估和管理。通过提高我们的民用基础设施系统的弹性，这将对加拿大社会产生重大影响。