Beyond Boom and Bust: Heterogeneous Fertility Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

超越繁荣与萧条：COVID-19 大流行对生育率的异质性影响

• 批准号: 10575256
• 负责人: Leslie Root
• 金额: $ 7.82万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10575256
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Adolescent; Affect; Age; Attention; Baby Booms; Birth; Birth History; Birth Order; Birth Rate; Black race; COVID-19; COVID-19 impact; COVID-19 pandemic; COVID-19 pandemic effects; Censuses; Characteristics; Child; Completed Family Sizes; Complex; Contraceptive methods; Data; Data Security; Data Set; Data Sources; Ethnic Origin; Family Planning; Female; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Fertility Study; Funding; Geography; Goals; Grain; Health; Health Insurance; Heterogeneity; Hispanic; Household; Income; Individual; Inequality; Knowledge; Link; Location; Low Income Population; Medical; Methods; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Nature; Pattern; Persons; Policies; Population; Positioning Attribute; Race; Records; Reproduction; Research Design; Research Personnel; Schedule; Services; Shock; Social Security; Socioeconomic Status; Source; Subgroup; Taxes; Time; Translating; Variant; Woman; Work; age group; aged; child bearing; coronavirus disease; improved; mortality; novel; pandemic disease; pandemic impact; parity; pre-pandemic; prevent; programs; sociodemographics; stem; theories; trend

PROJECT SUMMARY The COVID-19 pandemic arrived at a time when U.S. birth rates had been declining for several years. Contrary to initial predictions of a “COVID baby boom,” early evidence shows that the pandemic coincided with a steeper decline in birth rates. But fertility patterns vary dramatically across the U.S., and the mortality and health effects of COVID-19 have also varied by location, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Therefore, we expect significant variation in the pandemic’s effect on fertility. However, currently available data make this difficult to study - fertility rates by household income are not available in the U.S., even at the national level, nor are rate schedules by combinations of race/ethnicity and income or parity. This project seeks to leverage a new restricted data source, which our team has produced under the NICHD-funded "Increased access to contraception: an opportunity dividend?" project (R01-HD101480-01, 2020-2024), to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility. In partnership with the U.S. Census Bureau, we will use a dataset we created, Reproduction in People’s Lives (RIPL), which provides the full count individual-level longitudinal data needed to study how changes in fertility during the COVID-19 pandemic have varied by age, state, race and ethnicity, household income, and birth order. Using this dataset, we will link multiple U.S. administrative data sources, including individual tax filings microdata, the 2010 decennial Census, and social security data, to (Aim 1) calculate age-specific fertility rates for all U.S. women by state and demographic subgroup for the years 2015 through 2021. These rates - calculated by race/ethnicity, household income, parity, and most combinations of these characteristics - represent a significant improvement in level of detail over current publicly available rates. Using the rates calculated for the pre-pandemic period (2015-2019) we will (Aim 2) use demographic forecasting to generate counterfactual rates that represent estimated 2020-2021 fertility levels by state and demographic subgroup in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a forecasting method that is demonstrated to perform well over the short- to medium-term in fertility contexts like the contemporary U.S. and which is based on the Lee-Carter method, a cornerstone of demographic forecasting. We will (Aim 3) assess heterogeneity in the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on fertility by comparing these counterfactuals to the observed rates constructed under Aim 1 during the years 2020-2021. The forecast counterfactuals allow us to estimate the portion of fertility change over the pandemic period that is the result of the pandemic, and to compare this portion across different age groups, sociodemographic subgroups, parities, and states. We anticipate that we will also be able to publicly release a subset of the rate schedules and forecasts we generate, allowing other researchers access to this important new data source.

项目摘要 Covid-19-19到达美国出生率已经下降了几年的时候到达。相反 为了最初的预测“共同婴儿繁荣”，早期的证据表明，大流行是用钢人创造的 出生率下降。 但是，美国的生育模式各不相同，Covid-19的死亡率和健康影响具有 也随着位置，种族/种族和社会经济地位而异。因此，我们期望 大流行对生育的影响。但是，目前可用的数据使得很难研究 - 生育率 即使在国家一级也无法获得家庭收入 种族/种族，收入或平等。该项目旨在利用新的限制数据源，我们的 团队在NICHD资助的“增加避孕的机会：机会红利？”下制作了制作。 项目（R01-HD101480-01，2020-2024），以评估COVID-19大流行对生育能力的影响。 与美国人口普查局合作，我们将使用我们创建的数据集，在人们的生活中复制 （RIPL），它提供了完整计数的个人级纵向数据，以研究生育能力的变化 在Covid-19期间，大流行因年龄，州，种族和种族，家庭收入和出生顺序而有所不同。 使用此数据集，我们将链接多个美国行政数据源，包括个人税收文件Microdata， 2010年十年级人口普查和社会保障数据（AIM 1）计算美国所有美国的年龄特异性生育率 妇女按州和人口亚组按2015年至2021年。 种族/民族，家庭收入，均等和这些特征的大多数组合 - 代表着重要的 详细信息水平比当前可公开可用的价格提高。 使用计算的频率前时期（2015-2019），我们将（AIM 2）使用人口预测 为了产生反事实率，代表估计按州和人口统计的2020-2021生育水平 在没有共同的19日大流行的情况下亚组。我们使用一种预测方法 在当代美国等生育环境中的短期至中期表现良好 在Lee-Carter方法上，人口预测的基石。 我们将（AIM 3）通过比较这些大流行对生育的影响（AIM 3）评估异质性 与2020 - 2021年期间根据AIM 1建立的观察到的比率的反事实。预测 反事实使我们能够估计大流行时期生育变化的一部分，这是 大流行，并比较不同年龄段，社会人口统计学亚组，平族， 和国家。我们预计我们还将能够公开发布费率时间表和森林的子集 我们生成，允许其他研究人员访问这一重要的新数据源。