Predicting vector-borne virus transmission dynamics and emergence potential

预测媒介传播病毒的传播动态和出现潜力

• 批准号: 8281446
• 负责人: Christopher Mores
• 金额: $ 59.24万
• 依托单位: LOUISIANA STATE UNIV A&M COL BATON ROUGE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-15 至 2016-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8281446
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Aedes; Antibodies; Arboviruses; Area; Chikungunya virus; Clinical Data; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Complex; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever; Dengue Shock Syndrome; Dengue Virus; Development; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Ecology; Effectiveness of Interventions; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Evaluation; Explosion; Global Warming; Goals; Hemorrhagic Shock; Housing; Human; Immunity; Immunological Models; Immunologics; Infection; International; Intervention; Measures; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Mosquito-borne infectious disease; Output; Policies; Policy Maker; Population; Populations at Risk; Predisposition; Public Health; Public Policy; Puerto Rico; Recording of previous events; Relative (related person); Research; Research Infrastructure; Serotyping; Statistical Models; Surveillance Program; Syndrome; System; Texas; Uncertainty; United States; Urbanization; Vaccines; Viral; Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers; Viremia; Virus; base; chikungunya; climate change; density; design; disorder control; environmental change; fitness; flu; mathematical model; models and simulation; mortality; pathogen; predictive modeling; prevent; response; secondary infection; tool; transmission process; uptake; user-friendly; vector

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to use mathematical modeling to better understand the emergence/re-emergence of dengue fever and similar mosquito-borne diseases and to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies on stopping them. The long term goal of this proposal is to reduce the burden of dengue fever and similar diseases by characterizing transmission to inform models of and response efforts to outbreaks. We intend to deliver a product to these public health officials and policy makers which not only is accurate and predictive, but which utilizes data that is readily available and/or routinely collected (e.g. clinical data, and that from mosquito surveillance programs), as well as a model that is both accessible in use and produces understandable and interpretable outputs. Further, we anticipate our model and outputs to be expandable to other existing vector borne viruses as well as to newly emerging threats not yet identified. Currently existing mathematical models of dengue virus transmission, though add to our understanding of transmission dynamics, are not primarily designed to account for detailed epidemiological prediction and evaluation. Predictive models need to span multiple scales, from house to the community to the international level. Accordingly, we propose the following specific aims: 1) Develop mathematical models of the infection dynamics of DENV in the mosquito and human, 2) Formulate models of the contact dynamics that drive transmission of DENV and 3) Integrate these component models into detailed agent-based simulation models of mosquito-borne transmission. By addressing these aims, we will confront the urgent public health problem of the emergence/re-emergence of dengue and similar viruses, such as chikungunya virus, in the continental US. RELEVANCE: As no vaccine or treatment is available for dengue virus, mitigating transmission is the first and only line of defense of public health. Adding precision and thus accuracy to known and accepted measures of transmission and ultimately informing a transmission model will allow for quicker, more directed and actionable responses to prevent and/or respond to an outbreak of a vector-borne virus such as dengue.

描述（由申请人提供）：我们建议使用数学建模来更好地了解登革热和类似的蚊子传播疾病的出现/重新出现，并评估干预策略阻止其的有效性。该提案的长期目标是通过表征传播来为爆发的模型和反应努力的传播来减轻登革热和类似疾病的负担。我们打算向这些公共卫生官员和政策制定者提供产品，这些产品不仅具有准确和预测性，而且还利用了容易获得和/或经常收集的数据（例如临床数据，以及从蚊子监视计划中），以及在使用中均可访问的模型，并且可以在使用中访问，并且可以访问可理解的可理解和可解释的输出。此外，我们预计我们的模型和输出可以扩展到其他现有的向量传播病毒以及尚未确定的新出现的威胁。目前，登革热病毒传播的现有数学模型，尽管加深了我们对传输动态的理解，但并非主要旨在考虑详细的流行病学预测和评估。预测模型需要跨越从房屋到社区再到国际层面的多个规模。因此，我们提出以下特定目的：1）开发蚊子和人类中DENV感染动态的数学模型，2）制定触点动力学模型，以驱动DENV的传输和3）将这些组件模型集成到基于详细的代理基于蚊子传播的详细剂模型中。通过解决这些目标，我们将面对美国大陆上登革热和类似病毒的出现/重新出现和类似病毒的紧急公共卫生问题。 相关性：由于没有疫苗或治疗可用于登革热病毒，因此缓解传播是公共卫生的第一个也是唯一的防御方法。在已知和接受的传输措施中增加精确性并因此准确性，并最终告知传输模型将允许更快，更有指示和可行的反应，以防止和/或应对诸如登革热等媒介传播病毒的爆发。