Quantifying Heterogeneities in Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics

量化登革热病毒传播动力学的异质性

• 批准号: 8666959
• 负责人: THOMAS WALLACE SCOTT
• 金额: $ 139.3万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-05-01 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8666959
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Aedes; Affect; Antiviral Agents; Arboviruses; Area; Bayesian Modeling; Behavior; Behavioral; Biological Models; Blood; Cellular Phone; Clinic; Clinical; Cohort Studies; Communities; Country; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Virus; Detection; Development; Disease; Epidemiology; Evaluation; Exposure to; Failure; Foundations; Health; Heterogeneity; Human; Human Virus; Individual; Infection; Insecta; Instruction; Intervention; Investigation; Joints; Knowledge; Literature; Location; Measures; Medical; Medical Research; Methods; Molecular; Monitor; Nurses; Participant; Perception; Persons; Peru; Population; Prevention; Prevention program; Prevention strategy; Principal Investigator; Process; Prospective Studies; Public Health; Relative (related person); Research; Research Infrastructure; Research Project Grants; Risk; Role; Running; Science; Series; Severities; Severity of illness; Source; System; Technology; Temperature; Testing; Thailand; Time; Touch sensation; Variant; Vector-transmitted infectious disease; Viremia; Virulence; Virus; Virus Diseases; Work; base; behavioral/social science; burden of illness; design; disease transmission; disorder prevention; epidemiology study; experience; exposed human population; feeding; human morbidity; human mortality; improved; innovation; insight; mathematical model; novel; pathogen; prevent; programs; public health relevance; research study; response; simulation; success; theories; transmission process; vaccine delivery; vector control; vector transmission

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Current knowledge of dengue virus (DENV) transmission provides, at best, only a partial understanding of a complicated and dynamic system with a public health track record that has more failures than successes. An important part ofthe problems is that the foundation for contemporary interventions includes a series of longstanding, but untested, assumptions based on a relatively small portion ofthe human population; i.e., people who are convenient to study because they manifest clinically apparent disease. Approaching dengue from the perspective of people with overt illness has produced an extensive body of valuable literature. It has not, however, fully embraced heterogeneities in virus transmission dynamics that are increasingly recognized as key missing information in the struggle to control the most important insect-transmitted viral infection of humans. Only in the last 20 years there have been significant efforts to carry out comprehensive longitudinal dengue studies. Our research team was integrally involved in two prominent longitudinal dengue research projects in Iquitos, Peru and Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. Our proposed POl represents the next crucial step in this line of inquiry. By studying people across the entire continuum of disease, including people with clinically inapparent and mild infections, we aim to quantify heterogeneities in human variables that affect DENV transmission dynamics and prevention. To do this, we will exploit the infrastructure we assembled over the past 14 years at our Iquitos study area. Our POl aims to help fill the void between understanding transmission dynamics and effective disease prevention by defining, for the first time, the contribution of the understudied majority of DENV infected people (the estimated 294 million with inapparent and mild infections) and the contributions of epidemiological, entomological, and socio-behavioral sources of heterogeneity to the dynamics of DENV transmission. By accounting for factors underlying variation in each person's contribution to transmission we will be able to better determine the type and extent of effort needed to prevent virus transmission and, thus, provide new insights for improved dengue prevention. RELEVANCE (See instructions): An estimated 390 million people in 128 at risk countries experience a DENV infection each year. Dengue viruses cause more human morbidity and mortality than any other arthropod-borne virus. It is the most rapidly advancing vector-borne disease in the world and it serves as a model system for transmission of vector-borne pathogens in general. An improved understanding of DENV transmission dynamics, concepts, and theory will fill critical knowledge gaps and significantly improve disease prevention programs.

描述（由申请人提供）：目前对登革热病毒（DENV）传播的了解充其量只能提供对一个复杂且动态的系统的部分了解，该系统的公共卫生记录记录失败多于成功。问题的一个重要部分是，当代干预措施的基础包括一系列长期存在但未经检验的假设，这些假设基于相对较小的人口比例；即因为表现出临床上明显的疾病而方便研究的人。从患有明显疾病的人的角度来看待登革热已经产生了大量有价值的文献。然而，它还没有完全接受病毒传播动力学的异质性，这些异质性越来越被认为是控制人类最重要的昆虫传播病毒感染的斗争中缺失的关键信息。仅在过去 20 年里，人们才大力开展全面的纵向登革热研究。我们的研究团队全面参与了秘鲁伊基托斯和泰国甘烹碧的两个著名的纵向登革热研究项目。我们提出的 POl 代表了这一调查的下一个关键步骤。通过研究整个疾病连续过程中的人，包括临床上不明显和轻度感染的人，我们的目标是量化影响 DENV 传播动态和预防的人类变量的异质性。为此，我们将利用过去 14 年在伊基托斯研究区组建的基础设施。我们的 POl 旨在通过首次定义未被充分研究的大多数 DENV 感染者（估计有 2.94 亿隐性和轻度感染者）的贡献以及流行病学的贡献，帮助填补了解传播动态和有效疾病预防之间的空白。 DENV 传播动态的异质性、昆虫学和社会行为来源。通过考虑每个人对传播的贡献差异的潜在因素，我们将能够更好地确定预防病毒传播所需努力的类型和程度，从而为改进登革热预防提供新的见解。相关性（参见说明）：估计 128 个高危国家每年有 3.9 亿人感染登革热病毒。登革热病毒比任何其他节肢动物传播的病毒造成更多的人类发病率和死亡率。它是世界上发展最快的媒介传播疾病，并且它是媒介传播病原体传播的模型系统。加深对登革热病毒传播动力学、概念和理论的理解将填补关键的知识空白并显着改善疾病预防计划。