Estimation of HIV Transmission Dynamics Using Genetic Sequences of Virus

利用病毒基因序列估计 HIV 传播动态

• 批准号: 7952547
• 负责人: Erik McCullough Volz
• 金额: $ 12.73万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-01 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7952547
• 关键词: Acute; Address; Area; Award; Behavior; Behavioral; Biological; Biological Models; Chronic; Cohort Studies; Collaborations; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Community Health; Complex; Couples; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Databases; Development; Dimensions; Drug resistance; Epidemic; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Evolution; Faculty; Fingerprint; Genetic; HIV; HIV Infections; Heterogeneity; Immunology; Individual; Infection; Influenza; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; Intervention; Link; Mentors; Methods; Michigan; Microbiology; Modeling; Newly Diagnosed; Outcome; Pathology; Patient Self-Report; Pattern; Phylogenetic Analysis; Phylogeny; Population; Postdoctoral Fellow; Public Health Schools; Publishing; Records; Reproduction; Research; Research Personnel; Research Support; Risk; Risk Behaviors; Sampling; Scientist; Sexually Transmitted Diseases; Signal Transduction; Source; Staging; Structure; Surveillance Program; Surveys; Testing; Time; Training; Training Programs; Trees; Universities; Unsafe Sex; Ursidae Family; Viral; Viral Load result; Virus; Work; base; career; career development; design; epidemiological model; experience; infectious disease model; intravenous drug use; mathematical model; metropolitan; novel; pandemic disease; public health relevance; rapid diagnosis; resistance mutation; skills; stem; surveillance data; theories; tool; transmission process; virus genetics

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal describes a four year career development and training plan for Erik Volz, an Assistant Research Scientist in the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor. Training will aid with the development of a career in Epidemiology with a focus on infectious diseases, especially HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The training program will allow Dr. Volz to acquire skills in areas necessary for expertise in the field of HIV epidemiology while conducting substantial research in areas where he already has established a strong publishing record. Dr. Volz will be mentored by a team of three faculty with experience ranging from complex systems modeling of infectious diseases to the microbiology and pathology of HIV infection and the evolution of viruses. The School of Public Health at the University of Michigan is an excellent venue for junior faculty seeking to develop a career as an independent investigator. A large community of research faculty and postdoctoral fellows are available as potential collaborators and as an audience for work in progress. Research supported by this award will concern the use of novel sources of HIV genetic data for fitting models of the HIV epidemic. The union of mathematical epidemiology, immunology and phylogenetics has been dubbed "phylodynamics", and Dr. Volz has made recent progress on the theory necessary to unify traditional models of infectious disease epidemics with the evolution of HIV described by phylogenetic trees. The potential of phylodynamic methods was demonstrated recently as the first estimates of the fundamental reproduction number, R0, for pandemic H1N1 came from the analysis of several dozen influenza genetic sequences, not from traditional epidemiological surveillance data. Dr. Volz hopes to refine these methods and develop them into a practical tool for epidemiologists engaging in HIV surveillance. A collaboration will be established with the Michigan Department of Community Health to analyze a database of several thousand HIV sequences collected from newly diagnosed individuals since 2004. By applying phylodynamic models to this large set of sequences, Dr. Volz will attempt to answer longstanding questions about the transmission patterns of HIV. This research will generate novel estimates of R0, the temporal distribution of transmissions post-infection, the fraction of transmissions that happen during acute and early HIV infection, demographic determinants of infection and transmission risk, and behavioral heterogeneity and sexual network structure. Public Health Relevance: Stemming the HIV pandemic requires effective surveillance, frequent testing, and rapid diagnosis of new infections. An under-utilized source of data comes from the virus itself. The genetic sequence of virus bears the fingerprint of epidemiological dynamics, and the objective of this proposal is to characterize the distribution and determinants of HIV transmission using HIV sequences collected for routine drug-resistance testing.

描述（由申请人提供）：该提案描述了密歇根大学安娜堡分校流行病学系助理研究科学家 Erik Volz 的四年职业发展和培训计划。培训将有助于流行病学职业的发展，重点关注传染病，特别是艾滋病毒和其他性传播感染。 该培训计划将使沃尔兹博士能够获得艾滋病毒流行病学领域专业知识所需的技能，同时在他已经建立了良好出版记录的领域进行大量研究。 Volz 博士将接受由三名教员组成的团队的指导，他们的经验涵盖从传染病的复杂系统建模到艾滋病毒感染的微生物学和病理学以及病毒的进化。密歇根大学公共卫生学院是寻求独立研究者职业发展的初级教师的绝佳场所。一个由研究人员和博士后研究员组成的大型社区可以作为潜在的合作者和正在进行的工作的观众。 该奖项支持的研究将涉及使用新的艾滋病毒遗传数据来源来拟合艾滋病毒流行模型。数学流行病学、免疫学和系统发育学的结合被称为“系统动力学”，Volz 博士最近在统一传染病流行的传统模型与系统发育树描述的 HIV 进化所必需的理论方面取得了进展。最近，系统动力学方法的潜力得到了证明，因为对大流行 H1N1 的基本繁殖数 R0 的首次估计来自对几十个流感基因序列的分析，而不是来自传统的流行病学监测数据。沃尔兹博士希望完善这些方法，并将其发展成为流行病学家从事艾滋病毒监测的实用工具。将与密歇根社区卫生部建立合作，分析自 2004 年以来从新诊断个体收集的数千个 HIV 序列的数据库。通过将系统动力学模型应用于这一大组序列，Volz 博士将尝试回答以下长期存在的问题： HIV 的传播模式。这项研究将对 R0、感染后传播的时间分布、急性和早期 HIV 感染期间发生的传播比例、感染和传​​播风险的人口决定因素以及行为异质性和性网络结构产生新的估计。 公共卫生相关性：遏制艾滋病毒大流行需要有效监测、频繁检测以及对新感染的快速诊断。未充分利用的数据来源来自病毒本身。病毒的基因序列带有流行病学动态的指纹，该提案的目的是利用为常规耐药性检测收集的HIV序列来描述HIV传播的分布和决定因素。